CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[NOVA Green]

Gotta admit, I feel kind of stupid now. Every time I saw Phil Scott's primary opponent's name mentioned, they always just said "grocer," so I kept thinking it was like, just some literal bagger or cashier running a some dude campaign (it's happened before elsewhere), now that I saw this person getting >38% I looked him up and he owns a grocery store.

Why can't they just say he owns a grocery store / small business? Why "grocer" ?

Well--- it worked for Margaret Thatcher. as the "Grocer's Daughter" some 40 Years Back...

https://www.bbc.com/timelines/zqp7tyc

[NOVA Green]

The Vukmir win is probably the most disappointing result for the night. I'd be more/less upset about Pawlenty if I knew anything about Johnson.

But the most upsetting news is that former Mayor/Sen. Norm Coleman's lung cancer is back. Keep him in your thoughts.

I certainly will, not only as a current cig smoker of Middle-Age, but also because regardless of partisan political attitudes of various persuasions, I am an optimist when it comes to Human Nature, and believe that *death* is permanent and *life* is real, and occasionally even on Atlas we see outrageous statements, and even worse hatred in many other corners of the Internet for various individuals simply because of externalization of personal situations frequently causes an all or nothing scenario where a particular individual is hated solely because of their current and temporary political affiliation.

I wish all the best for Norm Coleman's recovery from a Disease, where frequently the odds of a recovery at this point might be heavily favored against him.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like the Dane County elections site has crashed, so it could be a while.

Damn Russian FSB Troll Farm Hackers!!!!

[NOVA Green]

Although personally I tend not to spend tons of attention in general to most statewide primary elections,  there is an open question and discussion on Atlas these days in multiple Forums and Threads/Sub-Threads as to extent to prediction GE Enthusiasm and Turnout based upon PRIM election results.

I myself and many other posters in various threads have attempted to read the bird entrails of these results to see what that might portend come November '18, and even potentially beyond.

There are tons of variables here from "Open" to "Closed" to "Semi-Open" and "semi-closed" primaries, individual States and CD elections, how to measure the best swings using a realistic interpretation of historical data, etc...

This is part of the reason why I tend to generally avoid Primary Night threads, outside of Presidential Election primaries....

Still, it will be interesting, especially in Wisconsin, to see how these final numbers break down by County and assessed against historical comparisons.

Personally, I am more than happy to see Democrats in General, and Left-Leaning Dem's in particular to perform exceptionally well in the Great State of Wisconsin.

Here's how I am currently feeling from the results thus far Tonight....

Although this image has my favorite Libertarian-Socialist colors (Red & Black) with a clenched Fist which appears extremely similar shape to Wisconsin, it is actually an image from Israel about Holocaust Remembrance Day.

Looking forward to seeing more historical details once someone on Atlas crunches the numbers by County for Wisconsin....

[NOVA Green]

Anybody have comparative numbers for State House and State Senate Primary GOP and DEM numbers from Wisconsin?

[NOVA Green]

GOP wins Green Bay (Brown) by a couple of points (51.4-48.6). Trump carried it by 11.

And Dems win Kenosha (56.5-43.5); Trump won it by less than a point.

Kenosha, here we come!!!

[NOVA Green]

Good to see Trump's preferred candidate in his number 1 most popular state (Wyoming) lose pathetically with like a quarter of the vote. It makes me feel better about the senate race in WV.

My Step-Mother who was born and bread in Wyoming with Seven siblings, is likely feeling pretty well about these results tonight.

She grew up as a PK child in Laramie Wyoming, but spent many years growing up all along the I-80 belt from Cheyenne to Evanston, and warned me when I was Teenager travelling through to region to be a bit careful roaming around town in Rock Springs when the 'Boomers collect their checks....

She moved out West to East Bay California (Oakland/Berkeley) circa '69 when things were getting a bit heavy, and around that time was selling the "little red book" on the UC-Berkeley Campus.

Had a scare with some Panthers at a BART Stop in Oakland, at a time where the BPP was moving from a legitimate political revolutionary formation at the forefront of the Black Liberation Movement into a quasi gangster style shakedown scene even in the heartlands of Oakland.

Fast forward through time becomes a bit more religious, but more in a "charismatic christian" style paradigm, and starts to get into more of a "works not words" style of evangelical Christianity and over the past 10 years has spent at least 2-3 Years of Missionary Work in a few of the former states of the USSR.

Key point here is that Wyoming Politics are a LOT MORE COMPLICATED than simplistic D vs R analysis, and it does appear that even in "Deep Republican" Wyoming we are seeing some interesting numbers from Albany and Laramie Counties in particular, which account for a significant chunk of the overall State Vote Share by County....

I remember when I was a rebellious 15 Year Old "Punk/Metal/Hippie/Geek" hybrid kid in the late '80s, she told me the stories about Wyoming:

1.) First State where Women could legally vote

2.) Cowboys were the original Anarchists/Hippies

3.) WOMEN were a major component of the entire social and political structure from the early days of the frontier, that farmed the fields, dealt with the livestock, trained in firing guns to protect their livestock and homes, taught the children, and also tried to deal with their husbands not getting too ape s**t crazy when they get their paycheck and wander down to the local watering hole to do a bit of drinking and gambling...

I know I'm getting a bit OT here, but after all it is a slow primary night, so hopefully my one post isn't totally derailing the thread.

Here is a vintage photo of Wyoming Women Circa ~1900-1920 in honor of my Step-Mother, who is not biological but in many ways I have much more in common with.

[NOVA Green]

In terms of numbers we are WAAAAY up in number of ballots cast in compared to the '16 primary.
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1032030289009102848

GOP leading, there are multiple primaries across the state that will crank up GOP turnout, there are only 2 challenged primaries on the Dec ballot.

Majority of new voters however are Dems. 22% of voters this election have never voted in a primary!! and we still have a week to go!
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1032397021494136833

more info on democratic turnout
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1032401993212485632

One of the things that really stands out on the "Arizona Data Guru's" twitter feed is that almost all of the top turnout precincts so far with AZ EV are located in AZ CD-08 (Sun City & Sun City West filling out the Top Three on the list perhaps not surprisingly)....

Tons of good stuff on the AZ Data Guru links, and worthy of taking a deeper look at....

TY for sharing, haven't checked out the guy's site since the time of the AZ CD-08 SE.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1034506345947361281

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1034507155485818882

The AZ Data guru is always a good place to check tonight for AZ info.

As we head into AZ numbers getting dumped, it looks like we will see a MARICOPA PRECINCT LEVEL dump based on EV in about Three Minutes, and then one final number including both ED and EV at end of Night....

Could be interesting to see how well Sheriff Joe performs in his "strongholds" of AZ CD-08 based on EV numbers in a few minutes....

[NOVA Green]

Link to Maricopa County Precinct dump here....

https://recorder.maricopa.gov/electionresults/

[NOVA Green]

Have the exit polls for AZ been released yet

No exit polls, only EV dump to be published.

[NOVA Green]

Have the exit polls for AZ been released yet

No exit polls, only EV dump to be published.

Ok Thanks

You could always try poking around County websites to see if they publish come data prior to the State websites or MSM outlets that cover elections, or we just wait impatiently....

Probably not much difference either way....

[NOVA Green]

Have the exit polls for AZ been released yet

No exit polls, only EV dump to be published.

Ok Thanks

You could always try poking around County websites to see if they publish come data prior to the State websites or MSM outlets that cover elections, or we just wait impatiently....

Probably not much difference either way....

Feel free to take a bathroom break.

AZ law doesn't allow results (including EV's) to be released until at least  1 hour after polls close.

Already took a bathroom break, smoke break, cracked another brew.... next step pulling up a few of Maricopa County Precinct spreadsheets I have floating around.... I think I have Pima out there somewhere as well, but it might be on a different PC/Laptop/External Drive....

[NOVA Green]

Races to watch tonight (Besides AZSEN which everyone is overhyped about, theres so much more excitement)

-AZ01 GOP primary
-AZ02 Dem Primary (As shocking as it is to atlas, there were internal polls that weren't released that showed it a tie or with Heinz in the lead, but that story was a couple weeks ago)
-AZ06 Dem Primary ( Dems have small chance of winning this seat but it is interesting to see Progressive vs Traditional Democrats fight it out in a WEALTHY district, will Democratic-Socialist ideas be popular with rich Dems?)

GOV Dem Primary
Arizona Secretary Of State GOP primary
Superintendent of Public Instruction GOP and Dem primaries

Good point on the AZ SoS and Sup of "Ed" elections, since actually Dems tend to perform fairly well, even recently in those races, so the caliber strengths/weaknesses of the Pub candidates give us some clues on how this might start to play out come November.

So while we're waiting a few Demographics the first of the AZ CD seats you referenced....

AZ-CD-01----

49.5% Anglo, 23.1% Other (Heavily Native), 21.4% Latino
MHI- $48.6k/Yr
Age- Skews a bit older, especially in the 55-74 age brackets
Education: 32.5% College Degree, 53.0% HS Diploma


PRES ELECTION RESULTS 2000-2016:

[NOVA Green]

Ignore Krazen, he's just bored....

Meanwhile, looks like we have a chance of the AZ Data Guru tweeting some pretty cool stuff tonight once the polls close.

[NOVA Green]

Races to watch tonight (Besides AZSEN which everyone is overhyped about, theres so much more excitement)

-AZ01 GOP primary
-AZ02 Dem Primary (As shocking as it is to atlas, there were internal polls that weren't released that showed it a tie or with Heinz in the lead, but that story was a couple weeks ago)
-AZ06 Dem Primary ( Dems have small chance of winning this seat but it is interesting to see Progressive vs Traditional Democrats fight it out in a WEALTHY district, will Democratic-Socialist ideas be popular with rich Dems?)

GOV Dem Primary
Arizona Secretary Of State GOP primary
Superintendent of Public Instruction GOP and Dem primaries

So while we're waiting, here are the US PRES GE numbers by City in Maricopa County from '12 to '16 Chart I had floating around somewhere....

Obviously Scottsdale is a major chunk of AZ CD-06, but Trump only bagged 50.8% of the vote here in 2016!!!! I would imagine numbers out of many parts of Phoenix within the CD were worse, although unfortunately didn't take time to crunch the numbers tonight by precinct/municipality/district....

[NOVA Green]

It's possible that NYT might have mistaken Martha Mcsally and Joe Arpaio. They pretty frequently make silly errors like that. I remember they showed Stack up by 60% in one of the western PA counties, but it ended up being Fetterman up by 60% instead.

I'd expect Mcsally to get around high 40's in the primary.

Admit it Bect does not equal Beet....  (Or )

[NOVA Green]

Maricopa County Precinct level results are virtually useful to date...

Basically only a Text Based file, that would likely require either extremely pre-formated script, or extensive labor hours in a Multi-Person team....

Still, saved it for posterity to ref later before it disappears into the "dark corners of official County Election websites"....

Oh well....

Just was curious what Arapaio's numbers were in Cameo Precinct in Sun City West in the 'Pub Sen Primary.....

[NOVA Green]

So basically "racist and crooked Sheriff Joe" is left licking the backside of an Elephants Arse, even in his traditional strongholds of Maricopa County (Based on EV County Level Data Only), despite the President's pardon.... still curious about precinct level results in EV/ED Maricopa, but I strongly suspect "Sheriff Joe" will see an increased collapse in numbers once the ED votes come in Statewide.

[NOVA Green]

Will McSally win her CD in the senate GE? I say she will very narrowly.

I would think so, but her problem will be the larger phoenix metro.

That is the key part of problem....

Playing to the Right in the Primary might have helped her win in a Three Person contest, but there are so many Registered Indies in Metro Phoenix that have been moving against the Republican Primary in the Trump era....

We'll see how this all plays in November, but although McSally might have threaded the needle to win the battle, it's difficult to see how she wins the GE War, especially bruised and battled from the Primary with the Cray-Cray 'Pubs she ran against.

As I have been posting for almost two years now, key swings in AZ between '12 and '16 at the US-PRES were more a factor of massive Anglo swings, and to a slightly lesser extent a "Latino Surge"....

[NOVA Green]

Also while it doesn't make up a huge %, more Democrats tend to vote on the day off, so things could narrow.

Crap, yeah, I forgot about that (I now remember all the complaints about how the lines were 95% Bernie supporters and people were leaving the long lines during the presidential primary).

Yeah, we still have 700 precincts left to count in Maricopa

I'm assuming you're talking ED votes, since there are only slightly over 700 precincts located within Maricopa County....