Bernie in OK and WV

[NOVA Green]

Clinton's "best" county in West Virginia was Monongalia Ct., which she lost by 10.16%.
Her "best" county in Oklahoma - by far!!! - was Oklahoma Ct., which she lost by "only" 10.5%.

Bernie would not have done very well in Oklahoma County, but I think he might have done better than Hillary in Monongalia County.

I went out on a limb and voted yes on both....

As others have noted Monongalia County and Oklahoma County would be the two that I think would have flipped.

Monongolia County is a major University County.... Oklahoma County has a major bulge in prime Bernie age Demographics 18-35 years olds, many of whom either sat out the election or voted for 3rd Party Candidates.

I have a hard time seeing Bernie performing worse than Clinton in either, and see it entirely plausible that he would have been able to eke out a narrow win in both.

[NOVA Green]

Clinton's "best" county in West Virginia was Monongalia Ct., which she lost by 10.16%.
Her "best" county in Oklahoma - by far!!! - was Oklahoma Ct., which she lost by "only" 10.5%.

Bernie would not have done very well in Oklahoma County, but I think he might have done better than Hillary in Monongalia County.

I went out on a limb and voted yes on both....

As others have noted Monongalia County and Oklahoma County would be the two that I think would have flipped.

Monongolia County is a major University County.... Oklahoma County has a major bulge in prime Bernie age Demographics 18-35 years olds, many of whom either sat out the election or voted for 3rd Party Candidates.

I have a hard time seeing Bernie performing worse than Clinton in either, and see it entirely plausible that he would have been able to eke out a narrow win in both.

I firmly believe Bernie would have won the overall election, but I just don't think Oklahoma County would have flipped for any Democrat, not even Biden. Monongalia maybe for Biden, but that's about it.

Both would've lost all counties in OK and WV.

Ok--- to keep the thread going, and continue the time honored Atlasian fashion of taking contrarian positions....

Trump narrowly captured over 50% in both Monongalia County (50.14%) and Oklahoma County (51.7%).

In the case of the former, it is pretty clear that there were a significant number of 3rd Party Voters, many of whom likely would have backed Bernie in a GE against Trump... (5% Libertarian, 2% Green,  1.5% Write-Ins (Bernie?).

Additionally, one needs to consider the increased turnout among Millennial voters in a College Town with Bernie running at the top of the Dem ticket. Also, one should also consider the economic populist appeal and messaging to WWC voters that could likely have flipped 2-3% of the voters that backed Trump mainly because of his economic protectionist messaging, that typically tend to vote Democratic on pocketbook issues.

Admittedly, Oklahoma County would be a slightly tougher slog....

As I covered elsewhere, you did have a bit of a swing towards HRC in Upper-Income precincts in Oklahoma County. Would those same voters have supported Bernie, or instead voted Libertarian or stayed home?

Still, Johnson scored 7.1% in Oklahoma County, many likely from younger voters, without any ballot option for Green or Write-In candidates. Also, as I noted there is a significant age spike among the 18-35 year old population in this County, many of whom likely did not vote at all.

Despite Oklahoma's stereotype as one of the buckles on the Bible Belt, there is also a strong residual economic populist strain that I suspect might have caused 2-3% of Trump voters in Oklahoma County to defect....

Anyways--- just throwing this out there, and looking forward to seeing y'all poke some holes in my contrarian argument.

[NOVA Green]

No, no, no and another no. Something like half of his primary voters said they would vote for Trump in the general, which doesn't translate into winning a county.

Citation needed

Clearly you didn't pay much attention to the CNN exit polls.

I definitely paid attention to the CNN exit polls, and they showed that Bernie beat HRC 70-25 among the 18-29 Demographic and 62-23 among the 30-44 Demographic in West Virginia.

Hence my argument that Monongalia County would likely have flipped....

35% of the County is 18-29, and 17% is 30-44.

There are no Exit Polls for the General Election in WV, and I have a  vague hunch that Millennial turnout was pretty low with high 3rd Party support among that demographic.

Regarding the "DINOs" and Pro-Trump Democrats in the Primary, it should also be noted that only 5% of WV residents aged 18-29 voted essentially for none of the above, the lowest of any age group.

[NOVA Green]

Pardon me, it was the CBS exit poll http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279430-nearly-half-of-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-vote

That's if Hillary was the nominee. We already know that Hillary did poorly in WV.

Sanders would have totally won West Virginia. Berniebros are so realistic.

No one who really is progressive would vote for Trump under any circumstances. Most of them were the same types that voted for a convicted felon in prison over Obama.

What does any of this babbling have to do with Bernie Sanders winning literally one county in West Virginia as opposed to the actual nominee who directly insulted a huge chunk of the state, many of them loyal downballot Democrats?

I do have to say that the whole discussion of how West Virginia might have voted as a state in a hypothetical Sanders-Trump '16 GE matchup is definitely running off the tracks, as opposed to the discussion of "Would Bernie have won a County in West Virginia?".

RINO Tom is once again speaking the voice of truth and reason of bringing us all back to the topic at hand, with all due respect to my honorable colleagues from California and Georgia that are essentially relitigating the '16 Democratic Primaries within West Virginia.

I think most us accept that Trump would have won the State of West Virginia against Bernie Sanders, although likely by a significantly smaller margin, but still relatively comfortably.

That being said, I haven't seen anyone address my points regarding Monongalia County, West Virginia, which for reasons I have mentioned would likely have flipped in '16.

I must say that as an old timer poster, at least West Virginia isn't getting all the hate that it used to get during the '08 Democratic Primaries, '08 General Election, '12 General Election, not to mention some of the hurtful stereotypes of Appalachian-Americans that we saw floating around during the '16 Primaries and even leading into the '16 General Election.

When I lived in SW Ohio in the early 1990s, most Cities had "Anti-Appalachian Discrimination Ordinances" on the City books, essentially banning discrimination against Appalachian-Americans on the basis of housing, employment, etc.... unlike many sentiments expressed on Atlas between '08 and '16....

So, anyways OT Atlas rant aside, it is pretty cool to see a discussion on Atlas involving West Virginia elections that doesn't descend to that level....

If a County in WV were to have backed Bernie over Trump in '16 which county/counties would it be, and why?

[NOVA Green]

I voted just WV, but looking back at the 2012 map, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say both. Sander could've had the potential to do better in Little Dixie, and eke out wins in Cherokee or Muskogee counties. I'd also expect him to do better in Oklahoma county like Hillary did, but not win it.

And yeah, Sander might well have won Monogalia County, WV. I could also see him win Jefferson County.

PragmaticPopulist----

You do bring up a really good point on Oklahoma.

Rural traditionally Populist counties in Eastern and Southeastern Oklahoma with a large proportion of the population that identifies as Native American or Mixed would likely have swung much harder to Bernie Sanders than Oklahoma County.

I still stand by the argument that in Oklahoma County there would have been an increase in support with Sanders vs HRC running against Trump because of the large Demographic 18-35 year old bulge, although somewhat offset by the upper-income educated voters in the County that swung hard towards Clinton.

Hmmm.... you might be right about Cherokee or Muskogee as more likely pickups for a Bernie/Trump race than Oklahoma County..... Fuel for thought...

[NOVA Green]

Pardon me, it was the CBS exit poll http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/279430-nearly-half-of-sanders-voters-in-west-virginia-would-vote

That's if Hillary was the nominee. We already know that Hillary did poorly in WV.

Sanders would have totally won West Virginia. Berniebros are so realistic.

No one who really is progressive would vote for Trump under any circumstances. Most of them were the same types that voted for a convicted felon in prison over Obama.

What does any of this babbling have to do with Bernie Sanders winning literally one county in West Virginia as opposed to the actual nominee who directly insulted a huge chunk of the state, many of them loyal downballot Democrats?

Calm yourself. The fact of the matter is that Sanders wasn't or isn't necessarily popular in West Virginia, he was just an easy protest vote against Clinton for people who were going to end up for voting for Trump regardless. It's clear that there are ton of people there that vote Republican in general elections, but still vote in the Democratic Party for whatever reason.

Sigh... Invisible Obama, we are talking about the OPs Poll would Bernie Sanders have won a County in either WV/OK, both, or Neither.

Here is what happens when a train runs off the tracks.... the legendary Casey Jones Trainwreck

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casey_Jones



Here is a song that describes the Trainwreck of the legendary Casey Jones

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_x2m6i4KFqg

So back to counties that might have flipped in WV and OK in a hypothetical Sanders-Trump matchup?