NV-PPP: Clinton +3

[NOVA Green]

Overall, numbers sound more realistic than most of the other polling from Nevada....

My current theory regarding why Nevada is so close this election cycle is as follows:

1.) Trump support among voters 65+ combined with a solid lead of voters 55+

2.) Theory regarding "White Non-College Educated Voters" in Nevada is a bunk theory and catchall to explain what is fundamentally a generational gap accentuated in a state where the vast majority Seniors are SoCal Anglo retirees, and exacerbated by the largest collapse in housing values in almost all Metro areas, and has still not fully recovered, despite two terms under a Democratic President.

3.) Millennials- 27% of the population of Nevada are Millennials, that are both heavily Latino and Bernie supporters in the primaries (Although few Millennials showed up to caucus) where Clinton is currently having her single biggest issue in consolidating a population that has Obama approval ratings of over 60&.

4.) Mormon voting influence is over-rated in NV, and despite extensive support for 3rd party candidates (Recent polling from UT and ID), might account for a 1% gap in the total spread. Slightly greater drop-off in percentages in what is a slightly larger Mormon Pop in AZ than NV.

5.) Anglo retirees to NV tend to be less wealthy and educated than Anglo retirees to Arizona.
(Could explain some of the weird polling gaps between these two states).

6.) First Nations-  It might seem small on the margins, but Trump's cultural insensitivity is causing issues with Native Populations that make up 5% of the state, combined with many Tejanos and Mexican-American communities that also identify with 1st Nation Rights.  READ MY POST, Navajo County will flip for the first time since '96 when a 3rd Party candidate did well in the state.

7.) Arizona and Nevada will end up relatively close this election cycle.