NV-PPP: Clinton +3

[heatcharger]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/white-house-senate-races-very-close-in-nevada
https://www.scribd.com/document/323773529/NVResults912-1?keyword=ft200noi&content=10079&ad_group=Online+Tracking+Link&campaign=Skimbit%2C+Ltd.&source=impactradius&medium=affiliate&irgwc=1

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%

The survey was conducted for Project New America. No four-way numbers oddly enough.

[Dr. Arch]

Great!

[dspNY]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/white-house-senate-races-very-close-in-nevada
https://www.scribd.com/document/323773529/NVResults912-1?keyword=ft200noi&content=10079&ad_group=Online+Tracking+Link&campaign=Skimbit%2C+Ltd.&source=impactradius&medium=affiliate&irgwc=1

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%

The survey was conducted for Project New America. No four-way numbers oddly enough.

This poll actually makes some sense IMO. PPP's advocacy polling is usually pretty accurate unlike a lot of other pollsters who poll for partisan clients

[Xing]

Did this poll include interviews in Spanish?

[heatcharger]

Did this poll include interviews in Spanish?

PPP is a robodialer, so if I had to guess, probably not.

[The Other Castro]

The demographics look pretty accurate.

[dspNY]

Looks right. While NV may be a good fit for Trump, it's still very hard to see him actually winning there.

Nevada often becomes a turnout game and Clinton's apparatus along with the Reid machine personally involved for Cortez-Masto will prove decisive. Plus, Nevada has seen far higher new Dem registration than GOP registration

[Sorenroy]

No four-way numbers oddly enough.

Seeing as Jill Stein isn't even on the ballot as an official write-in, the most it would hopefully be is a three-way.

[SirMuxALot]

PPP is a robodialer, so if I had to guess, probably not.

I thought robodialers more often had Spanish?  I was always under the impression that live interviews were tougher to get enough Spanish language representation because you have to have enough bilingual employees to do the surveys.

Robodialers just need one Spanish speaking employee to read the prompts, then it's "Marque el numero dos..." after that.

[Brittain33]

No four-way numbers oddly enough.

Seeing as Jill Stein isn't even on the ballot as an official write-in, the most it would hopefully be is a three-way.

None of these Candidates is 4th in Nevada.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Consistent with Hillary +3-4 nationally.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Finally a honest poll for Nev.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Finally a honest poll for Nev.

LOL. A month ago PPP was junky, and Marist were THE BEST.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isnt an establishment GOPer that can break the blue wall of CO, NV and Pa like Kasich or Rubio could of

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump isnt an establishment GOPer that can break the blue wall of CO, NV and Pa like Kasich or Rubio could of

Have you forgotten who he is running against?

[pbrower2a]

Robocallers can give a Spanish option.  

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Finally a honest poll for Nev.

implying what about all other polls? lol

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Applying that they don't measure hispanic support for clinton and weigh to heavily towards whites.

[Ebsy]

I mean the polling of Nevada thus far has been fairly low quality.

[Xing]

I mean the polling of Nevada thus far has been fairly low quality.

It always is, though. Nevada is a legitimately difficult state to poll.

[Dr. Arch]

I mean the polling of Nevada thus far has been fairly low quality.

It always is, though. Nevada is a legitimately difficult state to poll.

Michigan of the West?

[Maxwell]

Make America Stronger Together?

This is good news.

[NOVA Green]

Overall, numbers sound more realistic than most of the other polling from Nevada....

My current theory regarding why Nevada is so close this election cycle is as follows:

1.) Trump support among voters 65+ combined with a solid lead of voters 55+

2.) Theory regarding "White Non-College Educated Voters" in Nevada is a bunk theory and catchall to explain what is fundamentally a generational gap accentuated in a state where the vast majority Seniors are SoCal Anglo retirees, and exacerbated by the largest collapse in housing values in almost all Metro areas, and has still not fully recovered, despite two terms under a Democratic President.

3.) Millennials- 27% of the population of Nevada are Millennials, that are both heavily Latino and Bernie supporters in the primaries (Although few Millennials showed up to caucus) where Clinton is currently having her single biggest issue in consolidating a population that has Obama approval ratings of over 60&.

4.) Mormon voting influence is over-rated in NV, and despite extensive support for 3rd party candidates (Recent polling from UT and ID), might account for a 1% gap in the total spread. Slightly greater drop-off in percentages in what is a slightly larger Mormon Pop in AZ than NV.

5.) Anglo retirees to NV tend to be less wealthy and educated than Anglo retirees to Arizona.
(Could explain some of the weird polling gaps between these two states).

6.) First Nations-  It might seem small on the margins, but Trump's cultural insensitivity is causing issues with Native Populations that make up 5% of the state, combined with many Tejanos and Mexican-American communities that also identify with 1st Nation Rights.  READ MY POST, Navajo County will flip for the first time since '96 when a 3rd Party candidate did well in the state.

7.) Arizona and Nevada will end up relatively close this election cycle.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

No 4-way = throw it in the trash.

[Sbane]

Overall, numbers sound more realistic than most of the other polling from Nevada....

My current theory regarding why Nevada is so close this election cycle is as follows:

1.) Trump support among voters 65+ combined with a solid lead of voters 55+

2.) Theory regarding "White Non-College Educated Voters" in Nevada is a bunk theory and catchall to explain what is fundamentally a generational gap accentuated in a state where the vast majority Seniors are SoCal Anglo retirees, and exacerbated by the largest collapse in housing values in almost all Metro areas, and has still not fully recovered, despite two terms under a Democratic President.

3.) Millennials- 27% of the population of Nevada are Millennials, that are both heavily Latino and Bernie supporters in the primaries (Although few Millennials showed up to caucus) where Clinton is currently having her single biggest issue in consolidating a population that has Obama approval ratings of over 60&.

4.) Mormon voting influence is over-rated in NV, and despite extensive support for 3rd party candidates (Recent polling from UT and ID), might account for a 1% gap in the total spread. Slightly greater drop-off in percentages in what is a slightly larger Mormon Pop in AZ than NV.

5.) Anglo retirees to NV tend to be less wealthy and educated than Anglo retirees to Arizona.
(Could explain some of the weird polling gaps between these two states).

6.) First Nations-  It might seem small on the margins, but Trump's cultural insensitivity is causing issues with Native Populations that make up 5% of the state, combined with many Tejanos and Mexican-American communities that also identify with 1st Nation Rights.  READ MY POST, Navajo County will flip for the first time since '96 when a 3rd Party candidate did well in the state.

7.) Arizona and Nevada will end up relatively close this election cycle.

What I found interesting regarding the recent LA times poll of California is that Clinton is doing better in OC + SD vs the Inland Empire. The Inland Empire is a decent model for Nevada, especially Clark County. Obama did very well in the Inland Empire in both 2008 and 2012. Perhaps that will be one of the few regions of California to swing to Trump, despite the large minority population. Most of the whites who live there don't have college degrees. The SUSA poll is showing similar strength for Trump in the Inland Empire.