The absentee/early vote thread

[NOVA Green]

Off-topic here but guys please if you're going to quote StatesPoll for some reason, strip his stupid gifs out of the quoted text for gods sake. It's bad enough that he's acting like he's on 4chan, but quoting his images just makes it worse.

The crazy font size hurts my eyes, and is one of the major reasons that I rarely quote StatesPoll anymore....

I don't mind quoting back for individuals that post charts and graphs, since it isn't as hard on my eyes, and plus I assume people do as I do and skip down to the body of the text/response, and also with fast-moving threads like this one, some individuals don't go back to reread the previous three pages of posts sometimes, so actually like checking out a new chart/graph, etc.....

[NOVA Green]

Dan Frosch digs into the voter surge in Texas (full article, not just the graph below):


https://twitter.com/TimJHanrahan/status/792754968461713409

New Voters. Hispanic and Non Hispanic voters.
Dallas county 21% -6% = 15%
Harris county 22%-10% = 12%

Considering in rural areas of texas. less Hispanic %
So, I'd guess increase amount Hispanic voters in Texas(statewide) it would be about 10%

But, seriously Red Avatars think, Hillary can flip Texas by adding 2.6% more than 2012?

You don't know what you are talking about regarding Latino % of the population in "Rural Texas".

(56) counties in Texas out of (254) are majority Latino 22% of the counties in the state, and almost entirely "rural" and "small town" Texas.

We could throw in another (20) counties where Latinos are greater than 40% of the population (all "rural" with the exception of Harris County), again all beyond the statewide proportion of Latinos.

In fact of the (254) counties of Texas the overwhelming majority are at least 20% Latino, excepting maybe 10-15% of the counties in the state that are predominately in EastTex, where the Republican vote is basically maxed out (Think Deep South).

Even in the counties with the lowest proportion of Latinos in the state, you have some of the highest level of increase of Latino population (Jefferson & Orange County) as a result of work in the oil refineries....

Sir, your argument is completely inaccurate and spurious to boot.

Yes, the population of Latinos in Texas is heavily concentrated in large Metro areas, just as is the population of Anglos, African-Americans, and Asian-Americans, in a state that is basically 80% urban/suburban/exurban concentrated in six major metro areas.

I fail to see your logic.... we don't know what Latino registration and turnout levels are looking like in rural Texas, but as I stated on a previous post on this thread, if the Latino voting surge AND rejection of an extremist Republican among many Latino voters that frequently vote Republican in statewide elections is translated to "rural" Texas, the county map will look extremely interesting come November 2016.

[NOVA Green]

I wonder what internals are showing for Texas. If Clinton thought she had a chance, why not go for it at this point. At the very least it makes a statement going forward even if she loses the state at the end. Clinton, Kaine, Barack and Michelle each could have made one stop. Are there enough non-voting democrats there to squeak out the win--voters who typically don't participate because Texas is always a red state?

Of course, I say all this with more reservation now thanks to the email situation. I'm sure they're not even thinking about the state at this point.

Texas is a very expensive investment and the state is huge. Remember there's basically a week left and last-minute changes happen a lot.

Investment in Texas is a giant Catch-22....

In order to make the state competitive, there needs to be a massive investment in voter registration drives in a state with one of the lowest turnout rates in the entire country.

In order for the Democratic Party, and outside organizations to have funding for a massive registration effort, the state needs to actually deliver Democratic Party results and look competitive.

The weird thing about this election, is that if the state ends up being within 2-3% for Trump, as I am expecting, there will likely be a major infusion of outside investment towards voter registration and party infrastructure. however it won't necessarily manifest results since most Texas Republicans are savvy enough to not go full-tilt on an anti-Latino agenda.

Now, hypothetically if the Republicans with their division between the Trump vs Establishment types decide to go with another GE candidate that scapegoats Latinos, this state might well potentially flip in 2020.

Another thought to put in the pipe, is if Texas Latinos start voting 75-25 or 80-20 Democratic, will many of these voters abandon the Republican Party altogether, regardless of their candidate, similar to what we saw in Cali after prop 189 passed?

[NOVA Green]

Trump is telling people not to vote by mail in Colorado:

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/30/politics/donald-trump-write-in-ballots/index.html

From that story:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Isn't the idea to sow confusion on the other side?

Agreed...

As I posted earlier on the thread, attacking Vote-by-Mail in Colorado is a complete non-starter when it comes to expanding the Party base.

Colorado, like most other states that have shifted predominately VbM, actually agree with and prefer the convenience and option to not only be able to vote early, but also not have to deal with standing in long lines on election day.

Attacking VbM is plain stupid, and will appear as such to a ton of Republican and Republican-Leaning Indies in the suburbs of Denver, Fort Collins, and Colorado Springs.

There are very few Coloradans that believe that VbM is somehow "rigging the system", including the vast majority of voters of all parties that see it as not only more convenient but also a way to save an hour or two standing out in long lines come election day.

Even Republicans that live out in remote rural areas in the Mountains, Western Foothills of the Rockey's, and roll onto the flat high plains where ranchers and farmers predominate, find this system much more convenient, than the previous voting system.

[NOVA Green]

What about NC? This is where SttP was supposed to make all the difference, right?

NC hasn't updated at http://www.electproject.org/early_2016. Does anyone have any updates on NC?

Most Sos sites don't update weekend numbers until Monday....

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that many on the forum are freaking without any real data to back it up....

[NOVA Green]

NEBRASKA CD-2 Early Voting:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  17m17 minutes ago
Douglas County #NE02
Returns/Early Votes 10/31:
D 25,943 47.7%
R 19,412 35.7%
I  8,742 16.1%
Total 54,419

Matt McDermott ‏@mattmfm  2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Matt McDermott Retweeted Dave Sund
Huge difference from 2012 - when Dems had less than 300 vote edge in this swing district. Great news for Clinton in NE-02.

Wow! Big league lead!

Omaha electoral vote is Lean D. They only led by 200 votes in this metric in 2012 when they lost by 7 points. Now they lead by 12 with possibly a quarter of the vote already cast

It should also be noted that the 2010 redistricting moved some Democratic areas into NE-01, so is a more Republican district than when Obama won NE-02 back in '08.

The main question that I have is how does it compare with EVs in NE-02 between '12 and '16 with only a week to go?

The tweet posted stated, "Dems had a <300 vote lead in this swing district" but doesn't appear to clarify if it was through all EV or compared to the same time point prior to ED.

[NOVA Green]

The main question that I have is how does it compare with EVs in NE-02 between '12 and '16 with only a week to go?

The tweet posted stated, "Dems had a <300 vote lead in this swing district" but doesn't appear to clarify if it was through all EV or compared to the same time point prior to ED.

Looks like it was comparing to same point in time:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  34m34 minutes ago
vs. 8 days out in 2012:
D 20,687 +25.4%
R 20,388 -4.8%
I 7,198 +21.5%
Total 48,425 +12.4%

Thanks Ozymandias for the digging!

The logical follow-up would be how many Dem/Rep/Ind ballots received vs registered numbers?

Second question would be how does 2012 vs 2016 Party Reg look in NE-02?

Third question would be, how does Latino registration turnout look like in a CD that is 6% Latino, some  of whom work in the formerly union meat-packing plants in Metro Omaha?

This CD is a bit more obscure than most others, while at the same time potentially playing a role in national Pres elections, just like Maine, by dint of a potential one EV for either party candidate, regardless of statewide.

Let's see what the great city of Omaha does, home to the College World Series of Baseball, does in November in an official "All American City".

We're all curious on this one, but gets less attention than Maine-02 for an odd reason this year on Atlas....

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in the Safe Democratic State of Oregon...

Almost 21% of registered voters have cast ballots as of 10/31/16.

Numbers from "Safe D" and "Safe R" counties are starting to stabilize.

Although ballot returns from Multnomah are now slightly below statewide averages, Washington and Clackamas have picked up significantly.

Additionally, Lane and Benton county. with large college communities are picking up steam and outpacing statewide averages.

In metro PDX. although Republicans appear to be holding steady, EV numbers are strongly outpacing their RV numbers, in a region where Indies vote late and tend to skew heavilt Dem:

Multnomah: EV (69-16-15) D-R-I   RV (59-14-27)
Clackamas: EV (51-34-14) D-R-I   RV (40-33-27)
Washington: EV (50-38-12) D-R-I   RV (42-28-30)


Additionally--- if we roll down to the Central Willamette Valley,

Democrats are actually leading in Polk, Yamhill, and Marion Counties, all with large Latino populations that typically Lean Republican, and EV numbers from Marion are so far (46-40-14) vs RV (35*-35-30).

Numbers from Benton & Lane are looking really good for the Dems, with the latter being a heavily blue-collar and working-class county, where one might expect to see Trump overperform traditional margins, despite the influence of the University of Oregon.

Southern Oregon numbers are looking decent, and Dems are actually ahead even in Coos County that was a +6 Romney county in '12, where Timber is still king, as well as its cousin in the Northern Oregon Coast (Tillamook) that went Republican in 2000 and 2004, before drifting back to Obama in both '08 and '12.

Meanwhile, as I have long predicted, Democrats actually lead in Jackson County, despite a 2k Rep voter edge, that narrowly went for Obama in '08 and is at the top of my Oregon County flip list.

Roll East of the Cascades, and Dems actually enjoy an early voting edge in Deschutes County, where the Republicans hold a 3% voter Registration edge, and there are a ton of college educated White voters that don't like what they see in the current Republican nominee. (2nd large Oregon County on my flip list).

Anyways, tons more to say, but been rambling on with stats long enough in a non-swing state....

[NOVA Green]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing to around ~2.5%...Sad.

Trump is out performing Romney in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

Oh lord people, calm the f down

Exactly, take a chill pill all Dem avatars...

We have a legal means of dealing with stress induced psychosis now in Oregon, that will likely spread to California, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, and Maine in the very near future.

Back to reality, Dem numbers are looking strong in Nevada and Colorado.

EV numbers are lower than expected in Iowa, but picking up, now that the Dems did a strategic decision to do a "late push". Still think the state will flip, but will likely be close.

Ohio would appear to be natural Trump country, but numbers this weekend make me a bit more optimistic considering the Ground Game gap,

Florida, we always knew was going to be a close state, so the key question is if the Latino surge offsets some of the Grumpy Old White MidWest Men outside of Tampa-St Pete.

If I recall the cover of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy "Don't Panic"....

[NOVA Green]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

I don't think thats what Democrats are wetting the bed about. It's not that we believe that our candidate is inherently unlikable, we're just distraught by the fact that Donald Trump is the second most likely person to become POTUS come November 8th.

To put it bluntly.

A lot of us believe that the stability of our Republic hangs in the balance. Most of us don't think Hillary is going to lose, in fact, most of us believe she's going to win by a comfortable margin. Any chance of Trump winning this election, no matter how small, is enough to make us nervous.

Exactly the way I feel. It needs to be large enough to turn back the tide of extremism and anti-governmentalism or the next 4 years is going to be really ugly.

Then stop panicking and do what you can to change things. Trump is where he is thanks to the GOP, if people hold their nerve and work as hard as they can, Trump isn't going to win. It really is that simple.

This....

Been around over four decades now, and quite frankly this race is looking like anywhere from a 2-8% Democratic win in the PV, even if Clinton's numbers drop a point or two in the last week, and undecideds and 3rd Party voters somehow swing dramatically towards Trump.

What we have seen in the past six weeks is Trump consolidating the Republican base to a significant extent, and catching up with Clinton that started to consolidate the Democratic base slightly earlier.

Overall Clinton is looking to be in slightly better shape than Obama in '08, although some traditionally Democratic swing states are looking a little closer, while Trump has taken a giant nose-dive in places like Arizona, Texas, and Utah.

Feel the power of the force young Jedi's, and there is actually a decent chance that Clinton will be the 3rd Democratic Presidential candidate in a row to win >50% of the popular vote.

[NOVA Green]

Hi all, new poster here.

Looking good for HRC as far as I can see, hope she wins.

Welcome to the forum!!!!

Looking forward to seeing your contributions to the best US election forum on the internet, but be warned, sometimes we need to have tough skins around here, since occasionally people tend to get a bit worked up.

[NOVA Green]

Bradd Jaffy ‏@BraddJaffy  3h3 hours ago
In nearly every battleground state, early voting in 2016 is higher than it was at a similar point in 2012, except for Iowa

Wow!

Thanks for sharing Ozy (If I may call you that),

What's really crazy is this indicates that Floridians are early voting at 2x the numbers from 2012.

Regardless of how this crazy elections turns out, and personally can't wait for this debacle to be over, it is a good time for democracy when you see high turnout elections regardless of the final results.

[NOVA Green]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

That's way better than I thought we'd look at this point. Most of the "Hispanic surge" is non-Cuban voters who will go 3-1 Democratic. It looks like the final Florida electorate will be under 65% white when it is all said and done which means Clinton has a much better than even chance to win. If we can get African-American turnout back to 13%, with the expanded Hispanic turnout, Florida is blue

We need to summon Arch to talk about the "Angry Puerto Ricans" in Florida and maybe take that awesome time-scale image that he has of out-migration from the Island over the past four decades, with maybe another awesome image that shows the growth of Puerto Rican populations in Florida.

[NOVA Green]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

That's way better than I thought we'd look at this point. Most of the "Hispanic surge" is non-Cuban voters who will go 3-1 Democratic. It looks like the final Florida electorate will be under 65% white when it is all said and done which means Clinton has a much better than even chance to win. If we can get African-American turnout back to 13%, with the expanded Hispanic turnout, Florida is blue

We need to summon Arch to talk about the "Angry Puerto Ricans" in Florida and maybe take that awesome time-scale image that he has of out-migration from the Island over the past four decades, with maybe another awesome image that shows the growth of Puerto Rican populations in Florida.

Oh, we are ANGRY and likely to vote by a bit more than 3-1 against Trump. And yes, if unaccounted for, the polls are missing a huge chunk of new Puerto Rican voters in the state who are casting their votes for the first time. Here is the image you referenced:



Then we can cross-reference that population loss with Hispanic population growth in FL by county in recent years.



I would point out that a good chunk of that population movement is to the Orlando and Tampa city areas with some other counties to the side near Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Looking at the FL map above, you can extrapolate the changes that might have been missed.

Hmmm... that's really interesting, especially the surge in Latinos in the Jacksonville area, as well as the Florida panhandle.

Now, Orlando has long been on the radar with changing demographics and massive growth of the Puerto Ricano Comunidad, as well as Tampa area, but was quite surprised to see the map in parts of North Florida in terms of an overall percentage of the Latino population.

So, has there been a major increase in Puerto Ricans moving into Jacksonville & the Panhandle, or is more a factor of counties with smaller Latino populations increasing at greater % numbers than many other counties in the state?

Am also curious about how the Florida map matches with increased voter registration and EV numbers in heavily Latino counties in the state, just like some of the interesting numbers out of Tejas....

[NOVA Green]

Oregon (Non-Swing State) Update:

34.4% of ballots are now counted as of 11/1, so a large surge since yesterday.

Dems still performing extremely well in Metro Portland (~55%+ of statewide votes)

Multnomah: EV (69-15-16 Dem-Rep-Ind) so Dems same, Reps -1 and Indies +1. RV (59-14-27)

Clackamas: EV (49-36-16 D-R-I) so (D) -1.5, (R) +1.5, (I) +1 RV (40-33-27)

Washington: EV (52-30-18 D-R-I) so (D) +2, (R) -8, (I) +6. RV (42-28-30)


Mid-Willamette Valley:

Yamhill- Democrats continue to lead in Republican Yamhill County
Marion- Democrats still lead, but has shrunk slightly in an Obama '08/Romney '12 County
Polk- Dems continue to lead in Republican Polk County
Linn- Republican voters lead in a heavily Rep County, but by much smaller margins than usual.
Benton- Dems dominating, Reps holding onto their RV #s, Indies still slow to vote
Lane- (57-29-12 D-R-I) vs RV (46-27-27). One of the few counties where Reps are outperforming their RV numbers in EV. Trump factor likely at work in small-town and rural Timber areas.

Coastal Oregon:

Columbia- EV (49-34-17) vs RV (39-31-30)
Dems are actually running +10% above county Reg numbers, versus negligible uptick for Rep numbers in what should be a White-Working-Class Trump type County that has been trending R.

Clatsop-  EV (50-31-19) vs RV (41-29-30)

Reps again under-performing in a WWC coastal county.

Tillamook- EV (48-36-16 D-R-I) vs RV (38-33-29) in a county that George Jr won back in the 2000s.

Lincoln- EV (51-30-19) vs RV (42-27-21). Heavily retiree county and WWC voters in logging and fishing.

Southern Oregon:


Coos County- Democrats still lead narrowly in a former New Deal Democratic Union county that hasn't voted Democrat for President since the Timber Wars of the 1990s.

Douglas- Republicans only ahead by +4k in EV in a +11k Rep county that voted 47% Dukakis in '88.

Jackson- Dems still hold a narrow lead in an Obama '08/Romney '12 County where Reps hold a +2k RV edge. County is a mix of rural, Timber, Middle-Class retirees, and a Uni town (Ashland) in the Southern part of the County.

Josephine- Numbers look stronger than average for Republicans comparing EV to RV, in a county that basically elected to disband their local law enforcement agencies back in 2014. (Sigh....). Love the county, but too many anti-tax Republican types have basically taken over the county over the past four decades.

Curry- Reps only up 500 EVs in a county where they hold a 2k RV lead in a county that is heavily local retirees (25%+ are 65+), but still has an active union timber mill, and is one of my many favorite places on the Oregon Coast.

Central/Eastern Oregon:

Haven't been heavily tracking OR-02 CD, but Deschutes County is basically tied, despite a R +3k RV lead. This county is on my flip list, with a large number of college educated Anglos and growing Latino population that went Obama '08/Romney '12.

Additionally, Wasco County numbers look decent for Dems for another flip, and even Umatilla County is starting to look like a potential flip with a very large and rapidly growing population of Latinos, of whom the majority are registered as Independents.

Bottom line, there appears to be an unprecedented lack of enthusiasm among Oregon Republicans, not only in the Metro-Portland area (Where Trump eked out a 55-57% win running unopposed), but more significantly in the small town and rural parts of Oregon heavily dependent upon Timber, Fishing, and Tourism, where one would imagine that Trump's economic message would play best (Looking at you Columbia, Tillamook, Linn, Coos, and Jackson Counties).

Anyways... most of y'all aren't likely interested in checking out my updates in Safe-D Oregon, but it actually gives me greater optimism in ME-02 that is very similar to many parts of my native state.

[NOVA Green]

Wisconsin early vote so far: 51% Dem, 37% Rep. In 2012 it was: 46% Dem, 39% Rep
2012: 46% Dem, 39% Rep, 15% Other (231,000)
2016: 51% Dem, 37% Rep, 12% Other (446,000)

relax bruh - it's all Trump Dems folks!

All those Reagan Democrats in Madison!

IceSpear you literally made me spit out my beer on that....

If you don't have me on ignore from the primaries wanted to say thank you for making me laugh the hardest today, since Arch jumped in to comment on "Angry Puerto Ricans" in Florida, to correct the record on some people wondering about EVs in Florida.

Yeah.... there aren't a ton of Reagan Democrats left in Wisconsin period, let alone in Madison.

OT:

Just last Friday, I walked into a bar in a small Coastal Oregon town (Pop 750) and spent a little time on the Video Poker machines before chatting with a couple men with a few decades on me (55-65).

The old-time logger and Elk hunter and myself chatted for an hour while my wife was losing a few bucks on the slots, and although we didn't talk about the current Presidential Election, in the course of a conversation about the Timber Industry in a remote part of NorthCoast Oregon, he made an adamant point about how "Ronald Reagan was the worst President ever" that "destroyed the Unions" and, although some Republicans on this Forum that can't even grow facial hair, like to talk about this mysterious species, reality is that in most parts of the country, these are identified as Republicans, and it doesn't appear that old time Democrats that rejected Reagan, but still own firearms, opposed to increased environmental regulations that impact local jobs, are going down the route of the Trump Train.

True story, no hype, no BS....   If Tillamook County Oregon is going heavy D, even among the mythical species that Republicans and the MSM like to refer to as "Reagan Democrats, I gotta wonder what's going on in places like upstate Wisconsin and UP Michigan....

 

[NOVA Green]

@NOVA Green: With those numbers in Oregon, do you think Democrats are poised to make anymore gains in the legislature? What about the SoS race - I heard that was close as well, no?

Virginia----

As you likely well know Oregon is one of those weird states where there can be both massive blowouts in Presidential races, but statewide races frequently go into a traditional "upstate" vs "downstate" dynamic.

That being said, I strongly suspect that the Republicans chances of winning their first statewide election since 2002 (SoS) race will likely fail considering what appears to be a major down-ballot effect against even moderate Republicans that have been carefully groomed in what has rapidly become a one-party state, where we used to vote for Republican Senators like the much esteemed Mark Hatfield, not even to mention the great and honorable Tom McCall...

Now, Brad Avakian is well respected figure when it comes to items like worker's rights (Throughout almost all of Oregon) when he was a steward over the Labors & Industries office, but got hit hard in the primaries, including some major endorsements for his opponent for "politicizing" the SoS office on items outside of his State Constitutional jurisdiction.

State House & Senate--- It only takes one seat on the OR House to create a Supermajority, so will need to take some guesses as to where the pickups might be.

OR- HD-06- Medford--- Traditionally Republican town shifting D.

OR-HD-15- Albany--- used to be a heavily Republican city that voted Obama in '08 and is a working-class town and commuter town with a rapidly growing Latino population and more affordable than some neighboring communities in terms of housing. Personal note- Have a few Grandchildren now enrolled in Elementary School out there that are now virtually bilingual, as a result of living in a city where Latinos now represent 40% of the young folks in the community. (Republican incumbant running unopposed)

OR-HD-19- SE Salem---- I could also see this as a potential flip in a wave election. Salem is the largest city in Oregon with a major Latino population, and even though the district includes some suburbs and rural areas outside of the city, and is predominately Anglo, Trump isn't very popular within the City of Salem, although he'll probably do ok in rural parts of Marion County overall.

OR-HD-23- Rural Benton/Polk/Yamhill--- This ones a bit weird, considering how many folks on the Forum consider Democrats to not exist in small town and rural America.

As I learned several decades back as a "young buck" this is a part of the state in the beautiful foothills of the Oregon Coast range where "the Rednecks grow dope" and the "hippies own guns". I could tkae any of y'all on a tour of this part of the state and roll through every small village and tell stories about how loggers paid off their mortgages during down times in the Timber industry in the late '70s/early 80s growing a bit of Herb on Federal/State Land and went indoors in the late '80s/ early '90s when the National Guard was sent in to do Aerial and Chopper activities.

Needless to say these parts of the Coast Range in Benton/Polk/Yamhill aren't too crazy about outside political figures telling them what to do...

(Republican Incumbent running unopposed but Libertarians and Pacific Greens will likely do quite well)

OR-HD- 24---  One of the largest Latino rural HD's in the state.... IF we see significant Latino turnout, this could well flip Dem considering the demographics.

OR-HD-37--- Could potentially flip in a Dem surge.... is heavily exurban Portland, but includes places like Tualatin and cities in Clackamas County that are # NeverTrumpers.

OR-HD-54- Bend Oregon. Bizarre that a Republican still represents this district in a heavily Democratic City, although there are some suburban areas outside of town that vote heavily Republican for "normal" party candidates.

So here is my roundup, although all being said, Democrats aren't actually running competitive candidates in many of potential pickups that I identified, but yes Dems could actually win a super-majority if they defend most exiting seats and pick up a few of the others that I identified.