UT - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune: Clinton +1 [Poll actually from June]

[NOVA Green]

It's telling that a serial philanderer may be the one to push Utah into the Democratic column.

And I say this as a fan of Bill Clinton.

I really question this decision by the Clinton camp. Of all the moral surrogates to send to Utah, Bill Clinton is probably not very high on the list. The democratic socialist would be a better fit.

This was my exact thought on this.... granted Bill Clinton's appearance could help turn out the Democratic Base in heavier numbers where, as in many other heavily Republican States, turnout tends to be a bit lower than it should be because why bother voting unless there is a semi-competitive election.

[NOVA Green]

If they use the same type of family narrative as he brought to the convention floor, adding a note on how they've kept their marriage vows through worst of times, he could actually be a hit.

Good point...

The key to a Democrat winning Utah this election cycle is in expanding beyond the traditional Democratic coalition of non-Mormons in the SLC area and carving away enough Mormon voters to eke out a narrow plurality.

Would Harry Reid help out here as well as part of a joint campaign event, or is he deeply disliked among Mormon Republicans and Indies?

[NOVA Green]

Good point...

The key to a Democrat winning Utah this election cycle is in expanding beyond the traditional Democratic coalition of non-Mormons in the SLC area and carving away enough Mormon voters to eke out a narrow plurality.

Would Harry Reid help out here as well as part of a joint campaign event, or is he deeply disliked among Mormon Republicans and Indies?
[/quote] Harry Reid is absolutely hated here except among the few Mormon Democrats, so he'd be a terrible surrogate.

But yes, the Democrats need to expand into the heavily Mormon suburbs, they might be able to win there, but the rural areas are lost forever.
[/quote]

So, I understand regarding the rural areas, but what would a successful Democratic statewide win look like in Utah?

I am assuming the key is SLC and suburban parts of Salt Lake County, but ultimately running the highway North of SLC from Ogden and beyond is so heavily Republican that it would take a huge margin in Salt Lake County to erase Republican edge "downstate".

Any particular bellweather precincts and suburbs to look at as a potential indicator of significant shift in the Mormon suburbs of SLC that could indicate the race is tightening?

Everything is fluid, and Trump is extremely unpopular even among the Republican base of Utah, but what would a winning Democratic coalition look like (Recognizing that there will be defections to the Libertarians, and even possibly some that don't vote)?

I suspected that Harry Reid might not be popular among Republican voters in Utah (Including Mormon and Independent Republican-leaning voters), but he is one of the only nationally visible Mormon Democrats in recent years...  So Bernie might be a better surrogate???

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/03/28/harry-reid-and-the-increasingly-rare-mormon-democrat/

[NOVA Green]

^^^ Weber County (Ogden) is the bellwether of Utah, Democrats have to win that if they want to win the state, they can lose most of everything else by decently large margins as long as they run it up in SLC as well.

So Obama narrowly won Salt Lake County in 2008 (48.2-48.1 Obama) and lost Weber in '08 (62-35 McCain) when Utah went (62-34 McCain).

What kinds of margins would it take in Salt Lake County to actually flip? Weber County sounds like ground zero if you look at the "Mormon Vote" in a state that is 62% LDS....

So of the two-party vote, would Hill-Dawg need to hit 58-60% in Salt Lake County and narrowly win Weber (Ogden) to make the math work?

[NOVA Green]

Good point...

The key to a Democrat winning Utah this election cycle is in expanding beyond the traditional Democratic coalition of non-Mormons in the SLC area and carving away enough Mormon voters to eke out a narrow plurality.

Would Harry Reid help out here as well as part of a joint campaign event, or is he deeply disliked among Mormon Republicans and Indies?

Harry Reid is absolutely hated here except among the few Mormon Democrats, so he'd be a terrible surrogate.

But yes, the Democrats need to expand into the heavily Mormon suburbs, they might be able to win there, but the rural areas are lost forever.

So, I understand regarding the rural areas, but what would a successful Democratic statewide win look like in Utah?

I am assuming the key is SLC and suburban parts of Salt Lake County, but ultimately running the highway North of SLC from Ogden and beyond is so heavily Republican that it would take a huge margin in Salt Lake County to erase Republican edge "downstate".

Any particular bellweather precincts and suburbs to look at as a potential indicator of significant shift in the Mormon suburbs of SLC that could indicate the race is tightening?

Everything is fluid, and Trump is extremely unpopular even among the Republican base of Utah, but what would a winning Democratic coalition look like (Recognizing that there will be defections to the Libertarians, and even possibly some that don't vote)?

I suspected that Harry Reid might not be popular among Republican voters in Utah (Including Mormon and Independent Republican-leaning voters), but he is one of the only nationally visible Mormon Democrats in recent years...  So Bernie might be a better surrogate???

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/03/28/harry-reid-and-the-increasingly-rare-mormon-democrat/
[/quote]

Tom Udall might be a possible surrogate in place of Reid, if a bit of a longshot. But Udalls are a fairly respected cultural family line [admittedly a good chunk of them are not like me or Mo or Stu or Tom, and more like Mike Lee or Gordon Smith] whereas Reid was a convert.

^^^ Weber County (Ogden) is the bellwether of Utah, Democrats have to win that if they want to win the state, they can lose most of everything else by decently large margins as long as they run it up in SLC as well.

So Obama narrowly won Salt Lake County in 2008 (48.2-48.1 Obama) and lost Weber in '08 (62-35 McCain) when Utah went (62-34 McCain).

What kinds of margins would it take in Salt Lake County to actually flip? Weber County sounds like ground zero if you look at the "Mormon Vote" in a state that is 62% LDS....

So of the two-party vote, would Hill-Dawg need to hit 58-60% in Salt Lake County and narrowly win Weber (Ogden) to make the math work?

That's correct, and winning Summit County and San Juan County would also be helpful, as they're relatively Democratic (Summit has Park City liberals and San Juan is where the Utah portion of the Navajo Nation is).

Possibly Grand County as well, I think Obama won that in 2008.

Wouldn't driving down margins in Utah County also help? It'd be an even greater longshot, but a forceful effort around BYU and Provo to combat Orem and the rural parts of the county perhaps?

[/quote]


Hmmm... hadn't thought about the Udalls, but they likely are much more respected in Utah than Reid over the past few generations. I remember Gordon Smith well, with several decades living in Oregon. Not sure where he is at not politically, or even if he would be interested in campaigning against Trump.

Still curious what a narrow Dem victory in Utah might look like, if anyone with better local knowledge is interested in creating a realistic map based upon competitive statewide elections of recent years.