NeverAgainsSock
Rookie
Posts: 166
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« on: August 19, 2019, 03:49:12 PM » |
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Honestly, I don't know if it's reasonable to claim McGrath is a terrible candidate 14 months out. I will wait until Beshear v. Bevin finishes to start handicapping. To the vast majority of Kentuckians, I doubt anything McGrath says or McConnell does will impact the race this far out.
Her pluses:
- She got within 3 points in a district that has been moving away from Democrats since Ben Chandler almost lost it in 2010, and actually lost it in 2012 (and really before then, but still), and went 16 points for Trump.
- Extensive military service vs. "optic-neuritis, dismissed-from-service-Mitch" (it'll catch on)
- Turning out the media's new favorite people: "suburban white women" out of Lexington and Frankfort
Her minuses:
- Not a great media presence.
- She let(s) narratives too easily attach to her and makes dumb gaffes bigly. "socialist", "Trump = 9/11", "I would/wouldn't have voted for Kavanaugh (in the same day)"
- Frankly, she spent about 50% more than Andy Barr... only to lose. Yet, Barr (to my recollection) had ads blaring about her, 24/7. How does that happen when you are spending more than Marie Antoinette?
The best this can get is Likely R. With the best circumstances, she can get this within 10-12 points, but that's it. I think she's a good person, but she should have ran again for KY-6, which she at least has a chance of winning. But maybe it'll distract McConnell and keep him on his toes for a couple of months.
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