Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[GeneralMacArthur]

Bill and Melinda raised their kids with normal lifestyles and don't intend to pass much, if any, of their money along to them.  They've said in public many times that they don't want their kids to be spoiled billionaire scions who never have to hustle.

Of course that's not true for every billionaire, but are the children of Jeff Bezos, who didn't lift a finger to earn any of his fortune and will all be close to retirement age by the time he dies, really going to cry over only getting $40 billion each instead of $55 billion each, or whatever it ends up being?

I think part of the American dream is making a lot of money and passing it on to your descendants.  Building generational wealth, so that your family climbs the social ladder and you can rise up over the years.  I don't think we should be attacking any "normal" fortune where people try to do that, like $10 million is a pretty reasonable fortune for someone to have accrued over the course of a life and want to leave to their descendants.  But once you start talking about billions and billions of dollars, like, you've already made it, your family is set for the next thousand generations.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Manchin came through!

https://twitter.com/potus/status/1408103224817639432?s=21

[GeneralMacArthur]

The media's lust for this project to fail is really blatant and disgusting.

We should defund the media.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The $5-6 trillion packages are obviously DOA but it's nice to have them there as something Manchin/Sinema can rail against before they turn around and support the actual reconciliation package.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I haven't been paying much attention lately, what's the status of this?  Is it expected to be a pretty smooth passage?  When do we expect voting to happen?

[GeneralMacArthur]

What's the difference between this bill and the other one?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Wait, this is the exact same $1.2T bill the Biden Administration was promoting over a month ago?  It looks like the numbers are all the same.  What have they been doing for the last month?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-support-for-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-framework/

[GeneralMacArthur]

Wait, this is the exact same $1.2T bill the Biden Administration was promoting over a month ago?  It looks like the numbers are all the same.  What have they been doing for the last month?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/24/fact-sheet-president-biden-announces-support-for-the-bipartisan-infrastructure-framework/

Converting that "framework" into an actual bill.

I see.  So if I'm to understand this correctly, the Biden Administration basically got exactly what they wanted... good stuff.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Infrastructure week but unironically? Awesome. Build, baby, build! It's about time the Democrats became the party of building stuff again. More of this and less culture war BS, please. And yes I know the Republicans start a lot of the culture war fires but they do it because they know it's the only way they can win. The key is to not fall into their traps and just tout our way more popular economic policy at every opportunity.

There has been zero culture war legislation coming from the Dems.  I can't even think of any culture war executive orders.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Just to head any Sinema/Manchin discussion off, remember guys, if this ends up failing or getting watered down because of our two red-state Dems, don't waste your time bashing Sinema/Manchin/Biden/Schumer/whoever on Twitter.

Expend your time, energy and money helping us win in WI, PA, NC and OH, and hold AZ, GA, NH, and NV.

If we win 6 of those 8 seats then we never have to worry about what Sinema/Manchin think ever again.

[GeneralMacArthur]

So many of you don't appreciate the power of Speaker Pelosi. If there's anyone that can navigate this, it's her. There is no one in the federal government I have more confidence in than her.

Seriously, Pelosi doesn't miss.  When is the last time Pelosi screwed up?

Pelosi is seriously the most underrated American politician.  Look at Boehner and Ryan, and that chump Kevin McCarthy.  Pelosi always wins.

Like imagine if Kevin McCarthy was a Democrat and had to run the Dem House Caucus right now, what a disaster that would be.  Or imagine if Pelosi was a Republican and had been running the House under Trump, just how much stuff would have gotten shoved through.

Reminder that Pelosi passed mountains upon mountains of legislation in the first 100 days of Obama's presidency that completely reshaped America and erased most of the Bush legacy.  But everyone forgets that, and then says "lol Obama had 60 votes and what did he do" because he didn't pass their pet policy.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Love to secretly plot with a no-name House backbencher to undermine the most important parts of my own agenda.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Jesus Christ, can the Congressional Dems caucuses please go five minutes without shooting themselves in the foot?

Just pass the damn bills.  There's no good reason to connect one to the other.  Passing the infrastructure bill isn't going to do anything to the reconciliation bill, but it's very important for the party.  Killing the infrastructure bill as a hostage-taking tactic to get the reconciliation bill passed is just absurdly self-destructive.

And there's no good reason not to pass the reconciliation bill.  Manchin is being an idiot.  There's absolutely no reason to "pause" anything.  The nation isn't going to fall apart because there were too many policy changes in one year.

We desperately need one or two more senators.  It's nice that we have Manchin holding a seat in WV of all places but having him as the swing vote is really hurting our agenda.  I mean it's way better than having some right-wing Republican in the seat, but it would be really nice if we could make his vote irrelevant for the more ambitious aspects of our agenda.

With that said, remember that we're extremely lucky to be in this position at all.  If we didn't have Manchin -- or didn't have Sinema -- or didn't win both Georgia seats -- it would be Mitch McConnell just blocking everything.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Manchin seems like he's at least trying to negotiate and find common ground.  Sinema is being an obstinate, contrarian bitch for no reason.

My preference would be to find something, no matter what it is, that we can agree on with Manchin, and then hoist enormous pressure on Sinema.  If Sinema really wants to be the lone holdout after Manchin agrees to something she's free to go down in flames, f--k her.

Manchin's called for a "strategic pause" is utter nonsense.  But I have faith in the White House to figure out a deal with him.

Meanwhile I think we need to just pass the infrastructure bill.  This administration desperately needs a big win.  Most of the stuff that was taken out of the bill and moved to reconciliation was stuff that was not crucial to the bill, like "human infrastructure."  That is how negotiation works.  Now we are having to come down from the $3.5T starting point to some middle ground, hopefully it is not all the way down at $1.5T but it's clear that there's a possibility to pass something.

I wish we didn't have to rely on Manchin for this stuff but we're extremely lucky to have 50 votes in the first place.  When Biden got elected, and throughout the course of the presidential election, everyone assumed he'd be having to work with Mitch McConnell to get this stuff through.  I'd much rather have Joe Manchin as a sparring partner than Mitch McConnell.  Obviously I'd prefer to not even have to deal with Manchin, but Cal Cunningham couldn't keep his dick in his pants.

Also it's funny in this moment to look back at the primary and recall the progressive left's insistence that they could pass whatever far-left legislation they wanted because all the moderates and centrists would obviously fall in line.  If we can't even get everyone in line behind this $3.5T reconciliation package, do you really think you'd be able to get the entire caucus to fall in line behind bills ten times that size to eliminate private health insurance or battle climate change?  Politics is a lot harder than Brooklyn stoners on your favorite podcast made it sound.  Intraparty agreement can not be taken for granted.  You can't just set the bar all the way out in la-la land, refuse to vote for anything else, and expect the rest of the party to fall in line.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I mean that $100B could be anything, articles like this that pick the most sympathetic thing possible and say "that's specifically what she wants to cut" are just malarkey.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I don't know whether it's Trump or just social media in general but for some reason everyone's now acting like every single issue in America is a crisis that demands immediate, overwhelming force to solve, with zero regards for the future, and that politicians are the only people who have any agency to solve these problems.

No, the country is not going to collapse because your favorite agenda item didn't make it into this year's legislation.  People aren't going to starve and die without the latest and greatest welfare idea becoming law.  Biden's legislative climate agenda is not the tipping point between an eco-paradise and the flaming greenhouse apocalypse.

All of these policies are really good and would be really nice to have.  But it's not exactly unheard of for highly-ambitious legislation to get watered down in committee.  You may recall that the Republicans promised for seven years that they'd repeal Obamacare, and then when they got back in power the best they could do was repeal the individual mandate.

None of these things are immediate emergencies.  We can include them in other bills in the future.  The Biden Administration and state governments can take action on these issues without Congressional aid.  As can the private sector in many cases.  Change and progress are inevitable.  COVID was an immediate emergency and we got 100% of what we wanted in the ARPA.

So be happy with what we're getting.  It seems like it's still really good.  I'm as irritated as anyone at Manchin/Sinema yanking stuff out without much justification, but that's what a 1-vote majority is always going to entail.  Obamacare was the exact same way when we had a 1-vote supermajority and we spent like nine months arguing with a small handful of congressmen who kept wanting to yank stuff out or pull the plug entirely.  I think young people in particular don't remember the Obamacare fight so they're much more likely to freak out over this entire process.  In another 5-10 years we'll have another massive bill the Democrats have to negotiate for months to pass, and a new generation will be freaking out, and it'll be the zoomers saying "I remember the Manchin days, this is just how it goes."

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/578319-manchin-shutting-down-sanders-on-medicare-expansion

Manchin still not sold on Medicare expansion.

If Sanders can actually convince Manchin to get Medicare expansion into this bill, I will give him credit, it will easily be his biggest positive accomplishment across his entire career.

However, knowing Sanders, I would expect the odds of that to be vanishingly low.

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/578319-manchin-shutting-down-sanders-on-medicare-expansion

Manchin still not sold on Medicare expansion.

If Sanders can actually convince Manchin to get Medicare expansion into this bill, I will give him credit, it will easily be his biggest positive accomplishment across his entire career.

However, knowing Sanders, I would expect the odds of that to be vanishingly low.

Yes, clearly it's Bernie's fault that Manchin doesn't like popular social programs. Stellar political analysis from GMA yet again.

You couldn't even be bothered to read a one-sentence post, instead you just decided to completely invent something I didn't say so you could dunk on it.  That's pathetic.  Thanks for taking me off ignore just for this purpose though.

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/578319-manchin-shutting-down-sanders-on-medicare-expansion

Manchin still not sold on Medicare expansion.

If Sanders can actually convince Manchin to get Medicare expansion into this bill, I will give him credit, it will easily be his biggest positive accomplishment across his entire career.

However, knowing Sanders, I would expect the odds of that to be vanishingly low.

Yes, clearly it's Bernie's fault that Manchin doesn't like popular social programs. Stellar political analysis from GMA yet again.

You couldn't even be bothered to read a one-sentence post, instead you just decided to completely invent something I didn't say so you could dunk on it.  That's pathetic.  Thanks for taking me off ignore just for this purpose though.

How else is one supposed to read "However, knowing Sanders", exactly? Clearly if this was a fair assessment of the situation, you would have said "However, knowing Manchin" since it's clearly Manchin who's being unreasonable here. But you just couldn't resist that little dig, could you?

I'm actually interested in what he really was trying to say.

So Antonio's strawman is "it's Bernie's fault that Manchin doesn't like popular social programs."

My actual implication was that Bernie is so, er, lacking in interpersonal skills, that he's not capable of convincing Manchin to vote for a policy he doesn't like.  He's especially not going to succeed where folks like Biden and Schumer, both endowed with far superior interpersonal skills, have failed.

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/578319-manchin-shutting-down-sanders-on-medicare-expansion

Manchin still not sold on Medicare expansion.

If Sanders can actually convince Manchin to get Medicare expansion into this bill, I will give him credit, it will easily be his biggest positive accomplishment across his entire career.

However, knowing Sanders, I would expect the odds of that to be vanishingly low.

Yes, clearly it's Bernie's fault that Manchin doesn't like popular social programs. Stellar political analysis from GMA yet again.

You couldn't even be bothered to read a one-sentence post, instead you just decided to completely invent something I didn't say so you could dunk on it.  That's pathetic.  Thanks for taking me off ignore just for this purpose though.

How else is one supposed to read "However, knowing Sanders", exactly? Clearly if this was a fair assessment of the situation, you would have said "However, knowing Manchin" since it's clearly Manchin who's being unreasonable here. But you just couldn't resist that little dig, could you?

I'm actually interested in what he really was trying to say.

So Antonio's strawman is "it's Bernie's fault that Manchin doesn't like popular social programs."

My actual implication was that Bernie is so, er, lacking in interpersonal skills, that he's not capable of convincing Manchin to vote for a policy he doesn't like.  He's especially not going to succeed where folks like Biden and Schumer, both endowed with far superior interpersonal skills, have failed.

What exactly is this a euphemism for, GMac?

Only since you apparently desperately want to hear me say it: He's a f---ing asshole and most of his colleagues hate him.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I just hope this entire experience serves as a memorable lesson for those who think political power is a magical and and you can easily bully everyone in the caucus into passing your dream legislation.

[GeneralMacArthur]

People are being mad just to be mad.  The same people swearing the bill is worthless because it doesn't include X policy were saying last week that we'd probably never get a bill at all and Manchin/Sinema were going to strip everything out.

We got a ton of good stuff.  This whole package easily enters the top 5, if not top 2, most impactful Democratic legislative wins of the last half-century.  Easily.  I'm sorry it doesn't have your favorite policy.  Today is a day for celebration.  Biden got the job done just like he promised.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Justice Dem self-promoters want to vote against what will undoubtedly be an incredibly popular and influential bill, I say go for it.  Voting NO on the main thing Dems are gonna run on in the 2022 midterms doesn't seem like an ace political move to me, but what do I know, my tweets don't get 168K likes.

I seem to recall throughout 2015-2020 "progressives" justifying their outlandish, unworkable, fantasy-land demands by saying "you have to demand more than you want so you meet in the middle to get what you actually want."  Or some variant of that thinking.  So in this negotiation, Biden started by demanding the most progressive spending plan imaginable, and then the furthest-right members of the caucus pared it down to something that's still pretty good.  But now apparently that "meet in the middle" strategy goes out the window, and if you don't agree to the original demand, we're not going to vote for it.  OK, so the entire thing was in bad faith?  Like these people are just children.  Folks, please stop electing idiot children to Congress -- they don't know how to govern, they don't know how to legislate, they don't know how to negotiate, and all they do is humiliate the party day after day after day.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Justice Dem self-promoters want to vote against what will undoubtedly be an incredibly popular and influential bill, I say go for it.  Voting NO on the main thing Dems are gonna run on in the 2022 midterms doesn't seem like an ace political move to me, but what do I know, my tweets don't get 168K likes.

I seem to recall throughout 2015-2020 "progressives" justifying their outlandish, unworkable, fantasy-land demands by saying "you have to demand more than you want so you meet in the middle to get what you actually want."  Or some variant of that thinking.  So in this negotiation, Biden started by demanding the most progressive spending plan imaginable, and then the furthest-right members of the caucus pared it down to something that's still pretty good.  But now apparently that "meet in the middle" strategy goes out the window, and if you don't agree to the original demand, we're not going to vote for it.  OK, so the entire thing was in bad faith?  Like these people are just children.  Folks, please stop electing idiot children to Congress -- they don't know how to govern, they don't know how to legislate, they don't know how to negotiate, and all they do is humiliate the party day after day after day.

What exactly did Joe Manchin adn Kyrsten Sinema give up? And why should we believe they aren’t going to just burn the whole thing down the second they get the BIF? And what is the strategy they were deploying by taking aim at the most popular provision in bill (other than to make Sinema’s planned McCain homage and Manchin’s last second hold up for some personal favor easier on them)?

The left has seen every major priority, including stuff Manchin and Sinema themselves campaigned on, get gutted or completely tossed and all they are asking for now is an agreement that they won’t be strong armed into more concessions or see reconciliation nixed entirely and they are the unreasonable ones?

Jesus ing Christ

It's 3 trillion dollars, bro.  Three trillion dollars worth of things that didn't get gutted or tossed out.

[GeneralMacArthur]

This is not a #BothSides situation.  The progressives have been behaving like pragmatic adults willing to compromise when necessary while the so-called moderates have been legislative terrorists.

It's only two moderates.  Every election cycle we get told that Congress is full of these Manchinites, yet literally everyone is on board with Biden's agenda except for two senators.  The moderates aren't the problem, it's just these two idiosyncratic senators.  It's not like Jon Tester is running around trashing the bill or making unreasonable demands.

Come election season all 270-ish non-Justice-Dems in Congress are going to be getting smeared as "moderates" or "centrists" or "corporate."