COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[GeneralMacArthur]

FWIW our university has a vaccine mandate for students and staff, and we are now two weeks into the new semester.  We have conducted about 2600 covid tests over the past 7 days, with 33 total cases and a positivity rate of 1.3%.

Universities in Puerto Rico have been running for a month now with full vaccine mandates and cases are barely in the triple digits (out of approx. 40,000 students and faculty members), none of them serious.

What's the COVID situation like in general in Puerto Rico these days?  I love the island and would love to help your economy with my tourism dollars.

[GeneralMacArthur]

People really are just incredibly thick about the vaccines, aren't they?  "Oh muh broken promises."

Vaccines do an astounding job at preventing hospitalization and death.  Virtually all the hospitalization and death happening in this country right now is unvaccinated people.  Anti-vaxxers are literally killing themselves in droves.  Not a day goes by that I don't see a new deathbed conversion, some anti-vaxxer lying in the hospital dying of the virus and saying, man if only I'd gotten the vaccine.

Vaccines reduce the infection rate by a substantial amount.  Which also reduces transmission.  They do not reduce either of those to zero.  Even if you are vaccinated, there is still a chance you can get the virus and spread it, although that chance is dramatically lower than that of an unvaccinated person.

So why are vaccinated people being asked to wear masks and follow restrictions?  Two reasons.

1)  Wearing a mask costs you nothing, and most of the restrictions are very minor and easy to follow.  Even if the benefits are smaller for vaccinated people, they are still considerable, and doing something that costs nothing and is super-easy is worth it to prevent the spread of the virus.  This is a bigger concern now than it was a month or two ago because the Delta variant is much, much more contagious than the vanilla COVID the vaccines were designed for.

2)  At this point it is very difficult to distinguish between vaccinated people and unvaccinated people.  Self-selection doesn't work because anti-vaxxers are disgusting liars.  We've started to see more and more ramping up of vaccine mandates and vaccine requirements, which has led to the predictable crocodile tears about "muh tyranny" and "muh big government."  Once we can draw a firm line between the vaccinated and unvaccinated, vaccinated people can enjoy life free of restrictions.

In fact, this is already pretty true.  I went to a nightclub for the first time in two years this weekend.  I was required to show my vaccination card at the door, they took my temperature, and I had to wear a mask.  Dancing in a mask sucked.  But I felt pretty safe knowing my chances of getting COVID from someone around me were very low.  As I've said before, my life is almost entirely back to normal at this point.  It feels like most of the "vaccinated" people complaining about big government, tyranny, restrictions, etc. are people who never went out in the first place and now want to pretend their aversion to masks is the reason they don't have a life.

In simpler terms, if you really care about your family, being asked to get a vaccine and wear a mask shouldn't stop you from seeing them, unless you're an incredibly selfish prick.

But most anti-vaxxers are incredibly selfish pricks.  Hate is a strong word but I truly hate these people.  Last year when I saw the death numbers spiking up I felt a real sense of sadness and empathy.  Now I feel nothing.  These people wanted to die, and now they're getting what they wanted.  If the only way we're going to escape COVID is for all the anti-vaxxers to die, then I say, hurry up and die already.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Question for the Americans.

How are people going with entering society in it's current state?

I spoke to an American yesterday about not sending Fedex, but he said there was no alternative as he was not prepared to visit the USPS in San Francisco at the risk of becoming infected.

In Western Australia, we have no COVID, so it's something that does not come to mind at present.

Any tips, behaviours or places that you are avoiding to reduce chances of infection.

I think most vaccinated folks are just living as normal.

One of my best friends (vaccinated) just got COVID after traveling a lot, and he's been resting up at home but feels OK after a rough day or two.  No worse than the flu.

I'm not quite as cavalier because I'm still spooked about long-term effects.  It's unknown whether the vaccine prevents/mitigates those.  But at the end of the day, I've got the vaccine, I'm mostly only hanging out with other vaccinated people, we wear masks when needed, and I avoid situations where I'll be unnecessarily close to people who might not be vaccinated.  More and more Seattle-area establishments are starting to require proof of vaccination, which makes me much more comfortable frequenting those establishments.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Which vaccine is the best overall (of course there are different ways to judge it)? In New Zealand we could only get Pfizer, though I'd have been happy to get any.

Moderna seems to have the strongest immune response and general immunity lasts longer, with Pfizer droppingto 20% effectiveness after six months. Moderna and Pfizer seem roughly equal (Moderna slightly higher) in preventing hospitalization/death with little to no drop-off.

J+J doesn't seem to have a drop-off.  Or at least I haven't seen it reported.  That would suggest the much-maligned J+J (which I got) is the winner.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If a person is vaccinated in a different county from where they live, which county is it counted under?

I would assume the one where they were vaccinated, but that's an interesting question.

All COVID statistics - new infections, deaths, vaccinations, etc. are reported based on the record's permanent address.  This is consistent across states and Federal reporting to omit any possible double-counting.  The conspiracy theory that Florida was systematically undercounting COVID infections/deaths originated from the observation that the state was (correctly) not counting snowbirds and non-residents in their totals. 

If people leave their havens of vaccination and public health safety, and venture to Florida, get COVID in Florida, and then return home, why shouldn't that count as a COVID case for Florida?  You could literally have a lockdown bubble with extremely stringent public health measure, but if your residents can still go down to Florida and get infected, then your state will still have higher COVID numbers than it deserves solely due to Florida's insanity.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Well, it's a better name than the Nu variant, which just sounds like "new variant."

At this point I just expect us to keep having new variants every six months or so.  They'll kill a lot of Republicans, as well as ignorant morons who think they're too cool to follow simple instructions or are "fed up" with doing the small handful of tiny things required to protect themselves and those around them.  The Horuses of America will eventually get killed by one variant or another.  Meanwhile I'm just hanging out over here with my booster shot and comfortable $3 masks.  Just had a really nice Thanksgiving dinner yesterday at a steakhouse.  Thinking about going to see the new James Bond this evening.  My life is completely back to normal.  All you people who think we're still in lockdown, and refuse to get the vaccine or wear your masks in protest, will be dead soon.

[GeneralMacArthur]

This may or may not be true, but as of right now I still think every county should not take any chances and wait for more data before agreeing with South Africa's health minister

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1464327805836083201

I've seen data from Portugal (86%) and Gibraltar (100% vaccinated) suggesting the vaccinated represent most of the hospitalizations, which is why countries were panicking yesterday.  However, the death rate is better than when people were not vaccinated.  

Also, we have no idea whether the people dying are immunocompromised. 

If Gibraltar is 100% vaccinated then it would be physically impossible for an unvaccinated person to get the virus because no unvaccinated people exist.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Masks are definitely not costless. 

I have been forced to teach wearing a mask this semester, and it is a total pain in the ass.  The worst of it is during student presentations.  Half of the students don’t speak loudly enough to be heard in the back of the class wearing a mask, and I have to constantly be asking them to speak louder.

Last year, we were allowed to use face shields, but for some reason my university decided to ban them this semester despite the fact that we also have a vaccine mandate (which is a very good thing!) for all faculty and students.

My girlfriend is a teacher and she's got these masks that have a transparent screen so you can see the lips moving.  You have to use a little spray to keep them from fogging up but otherwise they are a godsend.  They're also very comfortable, you just have to mess with the wires to keep your nose from smudging up against the screen.

I see people all over Seattle wearing those uncomfortable, scratchy blue medical masks that you get for like a penny apiece at the drugstore, and it always baffles me.  There are incredibly comfortable and attractive masks available online for only a dollar or two apiece.  The masks I wear are very comfortable, look snappy and fit great.  I'll sometimes spray a little bit of cologne on the inside of the mask about half an hour before I go out so the mask will smell really good all night too.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Masks are definitely not costless. 

I have been forced to teach wearing a mask this semester, and it is a total pain in the ass.  The worst of it is during student presentations.  Half of the students don’t speak loudly enough to be heard in the back of the class wearing a mask, and I have to constantly be asking them to speak louder.

Last year, we were allowed to use face shields, but for some reason my university decided to ban them this semester despite the fact that we also have a vaccine mandate (which is a very good thing!) for all faculty and students.

My girlfriend is a teacher and she's got these masks that have a transparent screen so you can see the lips moving.  You have to use a little spray to keep them from fogging up but otherwise they are a godsend.  They're also very comfortable, you just have to mess with the wires to keep your nose from smudging up against the screen.

I see people all over Seattle wearing those uncomfortable, scratchy blue medical masks that you get for like a penny apiece at the drugstore, and it always baffles me.  There are incredibly comfortable and attractive masks available online for only a dollar or two apiece.  The masks I wear are very comfortable, look snappy and fit great.  I'll sometimes spray a little bit of cologne on the inside of the mask about half an hour before I go out so the mask will smell really good all night too.

Cool! Where do you buy/order those transparent screen masks?

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B08P4R2J5F

they even come in fun Christmas colors.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Philadelphia is about to implement the card for indoor dining, and I'll be darned if that isn't my last straw with this city. One more year and I am out of this nightmare.  The whole northeast has lost its collective minds, and every time I have travelled in the last two years, it depresses me endlessly that I have to return to this disgusting and filthy place when it's all over while those locals get to keep on living normal lives.

lol Philly is filthy, disgusting and insane because you have to show your vaxx card to go into a restaurant

[GeneralMacArthur]

Interesting… White House pivoting to hard negative on the deranged Twitter doctors… Joe Biden must publicly denounce and condemn Eric Dingle Feig

What's up with that guy?  I keep seeing him everywhere and he's constantly dooming.

[GeneralMacArthur]

It has become increasingly apparent that Omicron is going to sort all of this out for us within the next few weeks.

Literally almost everyone is going to get the virus, except some people who were already recently infected.  Literally almost no one who is vaccinated is going to get seriously ill.

This is going to be necessarily disruptive regardless of restrictions or vaccinations because people are going to get somewhat sick and have to miss work for a few days.

But after a few weeks, we are going to realize that everyone recovered fine and can go back to normal.

Liberals don't want to get Covid and don't want to be sick, period. That isn't going to change regardless of how many times they're infected, we'll still have to pretend like we're avoiding it.  Its going to change nothing in big US cities.  I know two people this week who just had Covid and came out of quarantine and are now unwilling to go to NYE events because "its bad out there".

Nothing has fundamentally changed.  Cases will peak next month, drop substantially and everybody will be happy.  Then they'll go back up again and everyone will be sad and we'll do it all over again.  The end result will be an ever expanding health-security state with no measurable improvement in outcome.

I've seen no shortage of articles about liberals, left-leaning people, or Democrats who do everything they can to avoid the coronavirus. They get vaccinated, they get boosted, they wear masks in public, they adhere to social distancing guidelines, they sanitize, and they get tested frequently. And yet, in spite of all their efforts, they still contract the virus and are upset that they have. They wonder why they were thus afflicted, despite doing everything possible to avoid it. And even after they recover, they double down on supporting restrictions.

Well, there's not a lot of articles about liberals who follow all the guidelines and don't get COVID.

I still don't have COVID, after two years.  I follow all the guidelines, but otherwise live my life freely and happily.  I wear a mask in public places, got fully vaccinated, wash my hands like an adult, and try to avoid situations where I'm going to have a lot of unmasked people spewing particles all over me.

Frankly it's not that difficult.  I haven't been to a big concert or an indoor sporting event since COVID started but other than that I can't really think of anything I'd like to do that I'm not doing other than international travel.  And this has been true for at least the last year.

This whole conversation is just so absurd to me.  No, there aren't going to be lockdowns, and I don't support them.  If you're fully vaccinated, it's extremely unlikely that COVID will do serious harm to you, and if you're wearing a mask and washing your hands and avoiding super-spreader events, then you are doing your part to slow the spread and protect yourself from it as much as reasonably possible.  If you aren't vaccinated and aren't following the guidelines, and you get COVID, then you f---ing deserve it, and if you suffer and die then at this point, that was your choice and I have very limited sympathy -- certainly not enough sympathy to want to go out of my way to protect you.  Just protect yourself.

[GeneralMacArthur]

So I've now personally discovered how bad the tests are.

Friend and I wanted to take a trip to Portland for the weekend to see some folks.  Before the trip he got the notification that he was exposed to COVID, and got PCR and rapid (antigen) tested.  Rapid test came back negative.  The day we were going to go, before we head out, he gets another rapid test.  Still negative.  So we think we're good to go and fly down to Portland.

Once we get there, he gets the positive PCR result.  For those who don't know, PCR takes several days to return while rapid/antigen only take an hour or two.  We've been together for an entire day at this point but immediately separate and cancel all our plans, and I decide to get tested as well.

Problem is, it's impossible to get a test.  I go to one walk-in testing site and the line is four blocks long.  I waited for about 45 minutes in line, in the freezing rain, and it only moved half a block.  So I decide to go try another testing location way out in the suburbs.  Drive 25 minutes there only to find a sign that says "closed, out of tests."  I go back to downtown to try the other "walk-up" location, but when I get there the sign says appointment only.

The backup plan was this place that I had seen taking appointments, but it had a bunch of 1-star reviews on Google with people saying they never got their test results back.  It's the only option available though so I go take it.  Despite making an appointment for 3:30 I ended up not being able to get tested until 5:00 and again had to stand out in the freezing rain for 90 minutes shivering and waiting for my ten-second nose swab, surrounded by a crowd of other people who are also thinking they might have COVID.

So eventually I submit my swab for both rapid and PCR.  Later that evening, the rapid comes back negative.  But of course I start getting notifications that I've been exposed to COVID because some of the other people I waited in line with were positive.  And I don't feel confident at all because my friend had two rapid tests that were both negative but then a positive PCR test.

So at this point I'm just sitting in my hotel room waiting for the PCR results to come back -- hopefully the testing place doesn't lose mine like they lost a bunch of other folks'.  Do I have COVID?  IDK.  My (asymptomatic) friend is pretty sure he has COVID since the PCR results are the gold standard.  But I don't see why the government is even bothering with these rapid tests when they're so inaccurate, and this system of standing out in the freezing cold for hours with a bunch of other potentially contagious people seems like some third-world s--t.  Really unbelievably bad experience all around.

Regardless of either I'm not sure how the federal government expects me to get home.  Every mode of transportation requires me to sign a waiver stating that I have not been in contact with anyone known to have COVID in the last 10-14 days.  I'm pretty sure everyone in the country is getting bombarded with COVID proximity alerts these days, am I really expected to just sit in my hotel for two weeks?  Cause that's not gonna happen.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The only antigen/omicron research I can find says that the antigen tests have a 40-60% false negative rate if you're asymptomatic.  So if you have COVID it's basically a coin flip what the test is gonna tell you.  I spent all day driving around Portland and waiting in the freezing rain with a bunch of contagious people for this crap.

[GeneralMacArthur]

C) You should only do a PCR test if you have tested positive on the antigen test (they are super expensive anyways so why would you test?)

Because I have a life and want to spend the next two weeks living it instead of hiding inside waiting to find out whether or not I have COVID.  But I also don't want to spread COVID to dozens of other people, especially people I care about, if I do have it.

[GeneralMacArthur]

C) You should only do a PCR test if you have tested positive on the antigen test (they are super expensive anyways so why would you test?)

I’ve seen this before, but I don’t really understand it. The PCR test is far more sensitive than an antigen test. I would think that if you test positive on the antigen, you presume positive, whereas if you test negative on antigen, you confirm with a PCR.

Also, PCR tests don’t cost the patient in the United States. Do they charge you in Spain?

Yeah they do, about 100€ iirc. I guess if you do an antigen test and test positive, it is free, but I am pretty sure it is not free if you just turn up at a lab and ask for one

I paid $120 for the test.  They asked for my insurance info but since it's the new year it all went towards my annual deductible.

[GeneralMacArthur]

C) You should only do a PCR test if you have tested positive on the antigen test (they are super expensive anyways so why would you test?)

Because I have a life and want to spend the next two weeks living it instead of hiding inside waiting to find out whether or not I have COVID.  But I also don't want to spread COVID to dozens of other people, especially people I care about, if I do have it.

Dude that ain't cool.  There's literally people that need to get those tests to come back negative in order to get back to work.

I have no idea what you're trying to say here, are you implying I shouldn't get tested even after spending significant time with someone who was infected with COVID, because someone else might need the test more than me?

[GeneralMacArthur]

C) You should only do a PCR test if you have tested positive on the antigen test (they are super expensive anyways so why would you test?)

Because I have a life and want to spend the next two weeks living it instead of hiding inside waiting to find out whether or not I have COVID.  But I also don't want to spread COVID to dozens of other people, especially people I care about, if I do have it.

Dude that ain't cool.  There's literally people that need to get those tests to come back negative in order to get back to work.

I have no idea what you're trying to say here, are you implying I shouldn't get tested even after spending significant time with someone who was infected with COVID, because someone else might need the test more than me?

Correct. It's selfish to hog tests if you're low risk.

Tell that to my loved ones who don't want to get COVID from me.

[GeneralMacArthur]

C) You should only do a PCR test if you have tested positive on the antigen test (they are super expensive anyways so why would you test?)

Because I have a life and want to spend the next two weeks living it instead of hiding inside waiting to find out whether or not I have COVID.  But I also don't want to spread COVID to dozens of other people, especially people I care about, if I do have it.

Dude that ain't cool.  There's literally people that need to get those tests to come back negative in order to get back to work.

I have no idea what you're trying to say here, are you implying I shouldn't get tested even after spending significant time with someone who was infected with COVID, because someone else might need the test more than me?

Correct. It's selfish to hog tests if you're low risk.

Tell that to my loved ones who don't want to get COVID from me.

Your loved ones are going to get omicron from someone no matter what.

You can't dodge it.

Bruh this some real sociopath s--t

[GeneralMacArthur]

C) You should only do a PCR test if you have tested positive on the antigen test (they are super expensive anyways so why would you test?)

Because I have a life and want to spend the next two weeks living it instead of hiding inside waiting to find out whether or not I have COVID.  But I also don't want to spread COVID to dozens of other people, especially people I care about, if I do have it.

Dude that ain't cool.  There's literally people that need to get those tests to come back negative in order to get back to work.

I have no idea what you're trying to say here, are you implying I shouldn't get tested even after spending significant time with someone who was infected with COVID, because someone else might need the test more than me?

Correct. It's selfish to hog tests if you're low risk.

Tell that to my loved ones who don't want to get COVID from me.

Your loved ones are going to get omicron from someone no matter what.

You can't dodge it.

So the end result of this story is that I do, in fact, have COVID, and it sucks.  Wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy, and certainly not the people I love.

[GeneralMacArthur]

About the tests. Flashback from June 2020:

https://twitter.com/RonaldKlain/status/1276502449898041344

Is this supposed to be some kind of dunk?  The Biden administration fixed testing, and then Omicron hit and suddenly demand for tests was like 10x higher than previously.  Were they supposed to somehow anticipate Omicron?

[GeneralMacArthur]

About the tests. Flashback from June 2020:

https://twitter.com/RonaldKlain/status/1276502449898041344

Is this supposed to be some kind of dunk?  The Biden administration fixed testing, and then Omicron hit and suddenly demand for tests was like 10x higher than previously.  Were they supposed to somehow anticipate Omicron?

Not a dunk, just stating a fact about how incompetent this administration has been.

Excuses, excuses. Europe, and especially UK, has been hit earlier by Omicron and has less problem with testing (again, especially UK). They testing more, it's easier and cheaper (mostly free?).

It's a valid excuse.  European nations are much more compact and have much lower populations than the United States.

[GeneralMacArthur]

C) You should only do a PCR test if you have tested positive on the antigen test (they are super expensive anyways so why would you test?)

Because I have a life and want to spend the next two weeks living it instead of hiding inside waiting to find out whether or not I have COVID.  But I also don't want to spread COVID to dozens of other people, especially people I care about, if I do have it.

Dude that ain't cool.  There's literally people that need to get those tests to come back negative in order to get back to work.

I have no idea what you're trying to say here, are you implying I shouldn't get tested even after spending significant time with someone who was infected with COVID, because someone else might need the test more than me?

Correct. It's selfish to hog tests if you're low risk.

Tell that to my loved ones who don't want to get COVID from me.

Your loved ones are going to get omicron from someone no matter what.

You can't dodge it.

So the end result of this story is that I do, in fact, have COVID, and it sucks.  Wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy, and certainly not the people I love.

So, do you feel like you failed morally? That's how many pro restriction/forever maskers feel when they catch this extremely transmissible, mild variant that is impossible to avoid.

No, I don't feel like I failed morally at all.  But my friend getting tested despite being asymptomatic let him know early that he had it, which let me know early that I might get it, which led to me separating from my girlfriend, so now I have COVID and she doesn't.  Without testing, I would have just gone home to her none the wiser and now we would both have COVID.  Thus testing was able to help me avoid giving COVID to someone I love.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Day 3 of Omicron and I'm already doing way better.  Fever is completely gone, nausea is completely gone, and I'm just back to the sore throat from day 1.  Praise be Joe Biden and Johnson+Johnson.

Took that long? Mine (scratchy throat that I think was caused more by the medical mask) didn't even last a day without the protection. Weakest cold ever. Praise my beautiful blood cells or whatever.

I only knew I had it because every triple vaxxed co-worker panic texted the group chat one-by-one about how they were completely knocked out by it so I should get tested.

Meanwhile I had all the symptoms of Omicron, with a timeline of the onset of symptoms matching perfectly with what boosted people get, and I tested negative.

Ngl, I was a little disappointed it wasn’t Omicron so that I could just get it over with.

I still haven't gotten my test back from Friday.  Meanwhile my friend, who gave it to me on Thursday, got tested the next day with both Rapid and PCR tests.  The Rapid test came back positive, but the PCR came back negative.  This despite him getting a positive PCR two days earlier.  There are some serious issues with these tests.