Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[GeneralMacArthur]

Fake News.

He isn't actually thinking about it.

He just said he wouldn't shut the door, when someone asked him about it.

If you told me he could pick Bob Gates or Colin Powell as his VP and swing 15-25% of Republicans to his coalition I might just take that deal.

[GeneralMacArthur]

To the two idiots who responded to me: it's an extreme hypothetical to illustrate why you shouldn't shut the door.

No, I don't think Biden would swing 25% of Republicans by picking Colin Powell for VP.  But you knew that.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Title is misleading but I'm just going to set up a Biden VP speculation thread because I've been intending to for a while.

Just to get ahead of this, please don't merge polls into it.  The Veepstakes will change week by week so there's justification for regular new polls outside the megathread.

Also, merging polls into megathreads is messy anyway.  See: the endorsements megathread.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Clyburn not a fan of Stacey Abrams as VP.

https://www.ft.com/content/bd88f5c4-6dbe-11ea-89df-41bea055720b

I ask whether Clyburn thinks Biden will pick Stacey Abrams, 46, the African-American former minority leader of the House in Georgia and rising Democratic star, as his running mate to help woo younger voters in November.

“I doubt it,” he says. “There’s something to be said for somebody who has been out there.”

Clyburn does want to see a black woman on the ticket, though. And some Democrats believe that Biden, who has vowed to pick a woman, will also be under heavy pressure to repay Clyburn for his critical endorsement.

Clyburn says there has been a lot of talk about Kamala Harris, the California senator who struggled in the Democratic primary. He says a “sleeper” in the race is Susan Rice, who served as national security adviser to Barack Obama. But he also stresses that “the bench of black women is much deeper than people think”.

While he believes Abrams does not have enough experience, he has his eyes on another Georgia politician. “There is a young lady right there in Georgia who I think would make a tremendous VP candidate, and that’s the mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms.”

[GeneralMacArthur]

I think Abrams may have rubbed a lot of Biden people the wrong way back at the beginning of the race when there was utterly ludicrous speculation that she would run for president.

There was also equally ludicrous speculation that Biden was going to announce a Biden/Abrams ticket from the get-go.  Abrams was asked about it and said something along the lines of "I don't need Biden, I can get in the White House without his help."

I don't remember the exact quote.  But I remember my opinion of Abrams dropping after it.  This is unrelated to my consistently-held belief that she is totally unqualified for VP or Prez and should try winning Sen/Gov first.  Why not run against scumbag Loeffler?

[GeneralMacArthur]

lol why is everyone overreacting to a poll where two tickets have 8% undecided and one has 6% undecided?  That's literally meaningless

[GeneralMacArthur]

The criticism against black women that they are "cops" reminds me of 2007 when people were accusing Obama of not being "black enough".

And the criticism against Harris is every bit as stupid as the complaints against Obama were.

Whether you like the criticism or not, it stuck with young black voters. And Demings was quite literally a police chief... so yeah, a cop.

And it's not a criticism against "black women", its a criticism against Demings and Harris. No one calls Maxine Waters, Ayanna Pressley, or Stacey Abrams cops. Law enforcement officers, be they DA's or police officers, are overwhelmingly unpopular among black voters under 30.

So while Harris and Demings may shore up old black people (an age group that already loves Biden and gave him the nomination in the first place over the objections of everyone else), they'll push younger ones further away.

It's an unnecessary risk when other potential VP's offer the same things Harris does without the downsides.

Harris never appeared on the ballot. How do you know it “stuck with young black voters”? Because Black Bernie stans and blue checks on Twitter didn’t like her?

She never polled well with voters under 30. And while this is purely anecdotal, she was a joke and pretty wifey disliked by everyone I knew in my age group in college. Whereas Biden was viewed positively as Obama’s bff, Harris was just a cop meme.

You're right. Purely anecdotal. And the hate is based on youth ignorance of what prosecutorial work it.

If you know people under 30 who hate candidates, they inevitably were going to hate the Bernie Bro target of the week.

None of the other campaigns inspire hatred for their opponents.  It's only the Sanders campaign.  And early in the race, the target was Kamala Harris, for weeks on end.  So they all probably hated her and repeated those talking points about her being a cop.

Check in with those same people now, they probably hate Biden and were hating Warren/Pete a few weeks ago.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Nobody will question the qualifications of a senator/governor.  A representative, mayor, or cabinet secretary, on the other hand, will have to deal with that question.

Not sure why more governors haven't been picked over the years.

[GeneralMacArthur]

To be honest, I was disappointed he didn't speak up for Joe Biden during Ukraine. He should have defended Biden, who did nothing wrong.

Liz would be a bad pick. She doesn't add a lot to ticket, but is polarizing. Kamala, Klobuchar, Demings, Whitmer or CCM are much better.

TBH Obama getting involved would have just polarized it more.

[GeneralMacArthur]

At this point, like most people, I think it's gonna be Harris.  She has great rapport with Biden, she covers all his gaps, and it's becoming more clear that she's who he personally wants.

[GeneralMacArthur]

At this point, like most people, I think it's gonna be Harris.  She has great rapport with Biden, she covers all his gaps, and it's becoming more clear that she's who he personally wants.

Except for the ideological gap. A Harris pick does nothing to bring Bernie/Warren supporters or those in their coalition on board. This was a mistake Hillary made with Kaine in not trying to shore up unity in the Party.

The only pick that would satisfy those people is Bernie himself.  They've even been ridiculing the idea of a Warren pick.  They are idiots and should have no voice in this discussion.  By the way, Kamala's voting record in the Senate is to the left of Bernie's.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The young people quote was definitely wrong of him, and out of touch. It was also made before he was running. I guarantee he will spend a lot of time speaking on issues which directly affect young voters in the months ahead.

That young people quote has been taken out of context.

In context, he is advocating for young people to get off their butts and engage with the process, and saying progress has always been difficult and you have to fight for it.  The "no sympathy" bit is weird but it's typically Biden convoluted language.  His message is basically "stop whining and start acting!"

[GeneralMacArthur]

Can I get an invite to Bidencord?

[GeneralMacArthur]

No way in hell Klobuchar gets nominated now.

I thought it was going to be Klobachour. Not anymore, she’s done.

It’s now all Harris. I can’t stand that woman, terrible veep....

Are people just blindly repeating the conclusions of that absolute garbage story about Klobuchar being tied to the cop?

[GeneralMacArthur]

No way in hell Klobuchar gets nominated now.

I thought it was going to be Klobachour. Not anymore, she’s done.

It’s now all Harris. I can’t stand that woman, terrible veep....

Are people just blindly repeating the conclusions of that absolute garbage story about Klobuchar being tied to the cop?

Politics are all about optics, and the optics for her are bad right now between her lukewarm reception among African-Americans, and whatever role, real or imagined, people think she had in letting bad cops off the hook in MN. She won't be the VP.

Oh god, it's 2016 again.  "Yes it's a lie but the truth doesn't matter, optics matter."

It's a f***ing lie and you people are blindly believing it and repeating it.

[GeneralMacArthur]

QUEEN DUCK finally getting a little boost in the odds today.  Up to 5.3% above Klobuchar and Whitmer.  She'll likely pass Abrams soon once the last die-hards finally accept that she's unqualified for the VP and kinda weird and annoying.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If I was Kamala Harris, I would copy+paste the House bill, tweak it just a little bit, introduce it in the Senate and give a bunch of passionate speeches on the Senate floor demanding that it be passed.  Make sure they're broadcast everywhere.  I bet Biden's team would be willing to help her in this, since it's in their interests to paper over this weakness.

Other than the lingering impact of the three-year-long "Kamala is a cop" smear campaign launched against her by the Sanders wing, Harris is the perfect candidate on paper.  And right now is a perfect opportunity for her to cover that weakness. 

[GeneralMacArthur]

I mean, at this point it's just obviously going to be Kamala Harris.  Just keep Maya far far away.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Honestly all this knife-fighting between Team Warren and Team Harris just makes me want Duckworth even more.  The KHive is really obnoxious.  I feel like they'll get a lot of unwelcome attention if Harris is the nominee.  Duckworth fits with the Biden strategy perfectly.  Net positive, no risks, easy win.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Duckworth ASCENDANT

[GeneralMacArthur]

Duckworth makes a move.

The senator from Illinois, who lost both her legs as a helicopter pilot in Iraq and was awarded the Purple Heart, has placed a hold—Senate-speak for preventing a vote—on hundreds of military promotions, she told me. She’ll maintain that hold until she gets written confirmation from President Donald Trump’s defense secretary, Mark Esper, that he won’t block the anticipated promotion of Alexander Vindman, the lieutenant colonel who testified in the House hearings that led to Trump’s impeachment.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Heilemann was on Hacks On Tap yesterday & was saying that he's heard from Bidenworld that Joe keeps coming back to Warren as somebody he likes ("simpatico") & who meets the threshold of being both immediately & obviously qualified for the Presidency on Day 1, & that many in the Biden orbit perceive Kamala to be self-serving (in contrast to, say, Obamaworld never having perceived Biden as looking out for Biden rather than Obama).

This whole thing is just... lmao

Warren is just a disaster in waiting. This may be anecdotal, but there are a number of people that I've talked to who are on the fence about Biden and view her as a deal breaker. He risks losing support with independents with her.

Demings, Duckworth, and Harris are safe choices.

Kaine was considered a safe choice as well.

Nobody saw Kaine as a "safe choice"--the narrative was closer to "the VP pick has no impact" when he was picked.

Kaine was the safe choice.  He was universally regarded as such at the time.

And he fulfilled that role.  Kaine didn't do anything to lose the election for Clinton.  He simply didn't add anything to the ticket to help her win.  He was just there.  Safe, no-nonsense pick, indisputably qualified for the job, high approvals.

Biden could do a lot worse than picking Kaine 2.0.  Right now he's in the same position Clinton was in when she picked Kaine.  He has a huge lead over his opponent and just wants to wrap the race up without any shenanigans or risks.  Warren would be a risk.  Maybe she's high-risk high-reward.  That's still high-risk.  Does Biden need to make a high-risk move when he's up by 9?

[GeneralMacArthur]

What's this Duckworth interview thing?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Yep.  You announce right before the convention.  Don't give the extremists in the party time to find a reason to hate the VP and coalesce around a set of talking points.  Otherwise, that will be the story the media latches onto.  The convention will drown it out.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I really don't understand how Susan Rice is #2 on betting sites with nearly 20% chance.

IMO she would be a poor choice.  She's already been defined by the GOP as a controversial figure and throwback to their favorite Obama-era scandals.  She's not particularly charismatic.  She is associated with the Obama foreign policy, which is a mixed bag.  The GOP can argue that she let Russia and ISIS gain power and turn the Iran nuclear agreement into a campaign issue.  She has never held elected office.

The main thing she brings to the ticket is foreign policy expertise.  If that's true, make her Secretary of State, like Obama originally wanted to.  Biden has enough foreign policy experience (although this is one area where I consider his judgment questionable).  He doesn't need a VP to shore that up.  He needs a VP who's going to cover bases he isn't currently covering.  Get voters of color enthusiastic, and bring in moderate future-former-Republican groups like suburban women, veterans, and hispanics.