2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Brother Jonathan]

Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

I assume it will also be more concentrated for Vance though, since the early vote (which is mostly what is in right now, as I understand it) includes votes from before the Trump endorsement, and I am sure that helped move some people over to Vance from the undecided/Mandel camps on election day. Though it still might be split enough for Dolan to move up the middle.

Still think Vance is more likely, but never could have imagine Dolan would even have had a shot when I started watching this race some months ago.

[Brother Jonathan]

Holy moly

Ryan brune, an Ohio expert, is on Twitter right now saying Dolan has a good chance at this thing

My guess as well. I would bet the election day vote breaks Dolan.

I assume it will also be more concentrated for Vance though, since the early vote (which is mostly what is in right now, as I understand it) includes votes from before the Trump endorsement, and I am sure that helped move some people over to Vance from the undecided/Mandel camps on election day. Though it still might be split enough for Dolan to move up the middle.

Still think Vance is more likely, but never could have imagine Dolan would even have had a shot when I started watching this race some months ago.

or even 3 days ago

Yeah, that too. I mean I was suspicious of the "Dolan surge" narrative at first but he really did seem to get a late bump, and you started seeing it across polls. Now the results are bearing it out too.

Granted, 21-24% of the vote is not a whole lot, but relative to where he had been it really is an impressive showing.

[Brother Jonathan]

Vance is overperforming with ED vote and is only expanding his lead. Dolan has to do EXTREMELY well in election day vote to potentially win.

People saw Dolan surge in the polls and—although his was admittedly bigger—completely ignored that Vance was also surging at the same time.

Personally, I just found the Dolan growth more interesting since it seemed to come out of nowhere (though I am sure there are reasons I just don't know about). Vance got the Trump endorsement, so his growth is easier to explain. Vance probably wins since the sort of pro-Trump base voters (who probably tend to be more likely to be election day voters as opposed to early voters anyway) probably coalesced around him following the endorsement, after fluctuating between Vance and Mandel.

[Brother Jonathan]

Looks like Dolan's vote was early-heavy. Now trailing big in Dayton. I expect his small Cincinnati lead will evaporate similarly. A few more dumps like this and Wasserman will be confirmed.

Seems like DeWine also performed better with the early vote.

[Brother Jonathan]

A New York Times reporter is talking about meeting Dolan-inclined voters in the parking lot of a suburban Cleveland Whole Foods. That should dispel any lingering optimism about his chances.

[Brother Jonathan]

So it seems like McCormick (like a lot of other more conventional R candidates) has done better with early votes than election day votes, though it's not as anywhere near as severe as for Dolan, to take one example. It looks okay for Oz too at this stage, but it's also possible he and Barnette split the election day vote in places like Delaware and Bucks enough for McCormick to pull it out.