NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[Brother Jonathan]

Probably the best outcome for the Republicans though, in my mind anyway. The Senate seat should be fairly competitive with someone like Ayotte anyway (though the primary will be a lot harder for her, and Trump could really rock the boat) and Sununu will probably be well placed to win a fourth term. If he had run for Senate, it would have still been a close race, and the race for Governor would have probably favored the Democrats (who, in the right circumstances, could also take back the State House and Senate). So on net, I think this is probably the best move for the party as a whole.

[Brother Jonathan]

Probably the best outcome for the Republicans though, in my mind anyway. The Senate seat should be fairly competitive with someone like Ayotte anyway (though the primary will be a lot harder for her, and Trump could really rock the boat) and Sununu will probably be well placed to win a fourth term. If he had run for Senate, it would have still been a close race, and the race for Governor would have probably favored the Democrats (who, in the right circumstances, could also take back the State House and Senate). So on net, I think this is probably the best move for the party as a whole.

For R, a senator from NH worth much more than governor.

Besides, Ayotte would be still favored in this environment if she runs for governor.

Favored, but why risk the Governor's office when Ayotte can still make a decent run at the Senate (the last UNH poll had her down only by one)? I guess it would be better for the national party if Sununu had run, but this just limits the risk in my mind. Plus I don't see Ayotte having an easy primary either way, but especially not for Governor with Edelblut being a real potential challenger. At least for Senate, she will probably have a more open field.

I'm also just always pessimistic about the NH GOP's abilities as well. It's not on the actual party so much as its voters, but still. In any event, I'd rather know that we'll have a lean R Gov race (at least) and a competitive Senate race than two competitive races. I've seen the party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory one too many times to think anything is a granted for them, I guess.

[Brother Jonathan]

Probably the best outcome for the Republicans though, in my mind anyway. The Senate seat should be fairly competitive with someone like Ayotte anyway (though the primary will be a lot harder for her, and Trump could really rock the boat) and Sununu will probably be well placed to win a fourth term. If he had run for Senate, it would have still been a close race, and the race for Governor would have probably favored the Democrats (who, in the right circumstances, could also take back the State House and Senate). So on net, I think this is probably the best move for the party as a whole.

For R, a senator from NH worth much more than governor.

Besides, Ayotte would be still favored in this environment if she runs for governor.

Favored, but why risk the Governor's office when Ayotte can still make a decent run at the Senate (the last UNH poll had her down only by one)? I guess it would be better for the national party if Sununu had run, but this just limits the risk in my mind. Plus I don't see Ayotte having an easy primary either way, but especially not for Governor with Edelblut being a real potential challenger. At least for Senate, she will probably have a more open field.

I'm also just always pessimistic about the NH GOP's abilities as well. It's not on the actual party so much as its voters, but still. In any event, I'd rather know that we'll have a lean R Gov race (at least) and a competitive Senate race than two competitive races. I've seen the party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory one too many times to think anything is a granted for them, I guess.

If Ayotte runs for Senate, her primary will be higher-profile and Trump already leans towards a candidate in the Senatorial race. He will probably go in guns blazing against her and outright endorse Bolduc, and she won’t hold up as well as Sununu in the primary. She could win, but I think the odds would be against her, and they’d definitely worse than her odds in a hypothetical gubernatorial bid.

That's true I suppose, but I still feel it's better for the Governor's office to be closer to safe than to have to fight two very competitive races, even if the national environment is good for the GOP. I just think of 2014 where the party didn't pick up either seat despite good results for Republicans overall with two decent (though, granted, not great by any means) candidates. But I do take the point that this really does reduce the chances of taking the Senate seat. I suppose I just think it's better to take the risk-averse route here, at least from the NH GOP perspective.

Further note: I'll also say I am coming at this as an NH voter, so I'm not making the case this is better for the national party, it probably isn't, and judging by the reaction we're seeing from a lot of GOP figures and blue avatars on here they know it. But personally, I won't mind not having to sweat the Gov race as much, and I think that might be true for many in the NH GOP (those who aren't deluded at least, which granted is not as many as one would like).

[Brother Jonathan]

Morse would be a decent enough candidate against Hassan, but I do think the primary could be a tough climb for him, especially if it is just Morse and Bolduc. Bolduc might even have some advantages right now just from slightly higher name recognition from running in 2020.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1513570086111653895

Yeah, Hassan should be fine.

Still odd to me that Phillips Andover (not even Phillips Exeter from what I can tell), a prep school, has decided to get into polling. I've generally seen this poll treated with skepticism as well, for what it is worth. Seems like it has very few undecideds relative to other polls/what is usually expected this far out in an NH race. The poll also showed that Covid was still the largest issue for voters (45%) with climate change second (21.6%), which I can't imagine being right. Seems like a weird sample maybe. I'll personally wait until St. Paul's puts out its poll until I make a final judgment.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.unionleader.com/news/politics/statehouse_dome/state-house-dome-gop-senate-field-likely-to-grow-and-shake-up-race/article_df7fb4b2-e802-5e45-931a-160a2187c008.html?block_id=998119

Per the Union Leader, Wendy Long, a former NY Senate candidate, is getting ready to run in NH. She is a Dartmouth grad who grew up in NH and worked for Senator Gordon Humphrey. Still, this is ridiculous. If she wins the primary that's three carpetbaggers in a row (not counting Ayotte). My initial reaction though is that she might have a bit of a hill to climb as I doubt she has very high name recognition, not to mention nothing by way of existing support or brand within the state (a note as well that outside of this Union Leader mention, I see nothing in other NH news about this). She basically has all of Scott Brown's liabilities without any of the strengths he may have had. Her only strength would be outside connections, including a possible Trump endorsement, which the article seems to suggest Lewandowski might try to get for her. Needless to say, she would be an awful candidate against Hassan.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.unionleader.com/news/politics/statehouse_dome/state-house-dome-gop-senate-field-likely-to-grow-and-shake-up-race/article_df7fb4b2-e802-5e45-931a-160a2187c008.html?block_id=998119

Per the Union Leader, Wendy Long, a former NY Senate candidate, is getting ready to run in NH. She is a Dartmouth grad who grew up in NH and worked for Senator Gordon Humphrey. Still, this is ridiculous. If she wins the primary that's three carpetbaggers in a row (not counting Ayotte). My initial reaction though is that she might have a bit of a hill to climb as I doubt she has very high name recognition, not to mention nothing by way of existing support or brand within the state (a note as well that outside of this Union Leader mention, I see nothing in other NH news about this). She basically has all of Scott Brown's liabilities without any of the strengths he may have had. Her only strength would be outside connections, including a possible Trump endorsement, which the article seems to suggest Lewandowski might try to get for her. Needless to say, she would be an awful candidate against Hassan.

Carpetbaggers from the high-tax states in the rest of the Northeast are the Republican base in NH (and to a lesser extent VT). Nothing strange here nor a death sentence. Long’s candidacy could be interesting given how low the bar currently is.

I suppose I wouldn't mind so much if the carpetbaggers could win elections but they don't seem to be able to. I will grant you that the "carpetbagger" stuff from the Dems is annoying and often hypocritical, but judging from 2014 it can work, and Long is an even more distant figure for NH voters than Brown was. Morse is fine, Smith is fine, and both are better suited to New Hampshire than Long is (they've lived here for more than a few years, for a start). I suppose Long could win, but I still think Morse and Smith (provided they are well funded, and I think Morse at least could be) are by far better candidates.

[Brother Jonathan]

GOP needs to stop Bolduc but he has a ton of endorsements. I don't see how they stop him

If you are going off the Wikipedia list, I would just note that a lot (maybe just about all) of those are from his 2020 campaign and actually haven't been made in this race. Most of the links lead to an error page. I have been meaning to edit that actually.

[Brother Jonathan]

Starting to see the impact of the leaked SCOTUS opinion a bit in the Senate race now. Morse had a pretty measured statement

https://twitter.com/Morse4Senate/status/1521539749424603138?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoog...

Basically, a nod to the pro-life movement, but asserting that he supports abortion in the first six months of a pregnancy. Also noting that the decision will have no impact on NH. Probably a fairly decent line to take which I can't see antagonizing anyone too much.

Kevin Smith, on the other hand, was much more explicit in taking a pro-life line

https://twitter.com/kdonohoenh/status/1521635779533062149

Granted, it is a text to supporters, but of course that sort of thing always tends to get out. I will say, beyond the "we are so close to ending abortion one and for all," the actually talking points (i.e. supporting a ban on late term abortion while saying Hassan is an extremist on the issue) aren't that far off from Morse and would not be that bad, and the public messaging is mostly about late-term abortion.

I would tend to think it may not be the best strategy for a Republican to try and be on the offensive with this issue in NH, but then again this will probably be an attack from the Democrats throughout the campaign, so maybe getting out in front of it is the better call. But I think probably it's better to take the Morse approach and just sound sensible when the issue comes up, rather than risk mobilizing pro-choice voters against you when otherwise it might not be as big of an issue.

[Brother Jonathan]

Starting to see the impact of the leaked SCOTUS opinion a bit in the Senate race now. Morse had a pretty measured statement


Basically, a nod to the pro-life movement, but asserting that he supports abortion in the first six months of a pregnancy. Also noting that the decision will have no impact on NH. Probably a fairly decent line to take which I can't see antagonizing anyone too much.

Kevin Smith, on the other hand, was much more explicit in taking a pro-life line

Granted, it is a text to supporters, but of course that sort of thing always tends to get out. I will say, beyond the "we are so close to ending abortion one and for all," the actually talking points (i.e. supporting a ban on late term abortion while saying Hassan is an extremist on the issue) aren't that far off from Morse and would not be that bad, and the public messaging is mostly about late-term abortion.

I would tend to think it may not be the best strategy for a Republican to try and be on the offensive with this issue in NH, but then again this will probably be an attack from the Democrats throughout the campaign, so maybe getting out in front of it is the better call. But I think probably it's better to take the Morse approach and just sound sensible when the issue comes up, rather than risk mobilizing pro-choice voters against you when otherwise it might not be as big of an issue.

How will Don Bolduc will react to this?

He seemed to focus more on the leak than the decision, but basically said he agreed with the decision and supported the restrictions passed in NH recently. So nothing really odd.

[Brother Jonathan]

Yeah, I have yet to watch that debate and I am frankly probably not going to just because I don't want to rip my hair out, but I mean from what I have seen it was rough for Morse, but Smith and Bolduc seemed to do okay. I did read the NH Journal (which is a right-wing source, but the debate analysis seemed fine), and the first part struck me a bit:

GOP primary voters who tuned in to see a Gordon Humphrey Republican, or a John McCain Republican — or even a Kelly Ayotte Republican — were sorely disappointed. Given the focus on their pro-life politics and concerns about the handling of the COVID-19 lockdown, it’s possible even Gov. Chris Sununu may not have been a good fit on that debate stage.

That last part is what should worry Republicans. Sununu is the only Republican to have won a statewide race since 2010, when Ayotte first won her Senate seat. So you would think that maybe Republicans would wonder what it is that he has done successfully that no other Republican has in a decade, but I do get the feeling that as the primary shapes up to be a real fight, the candidates are going to run a bit to the right. I'm willing to bet that Smith and Morse, and possibly even Bolduc, will move back a bit for the fall, but it might be too late. In any case I do not like the direction this race is going in for Republicans. (As someone who wrote-in Gordon Humphrey for Senate in 2020, that first part also stings a bit).

Also sounds like everyone thinks Morse is the frontrunner, since they were piling on him, and he did not manage that very well. I gather Smith did well and Bolduc exceeded expectations by staying on message (they went at each other a bit as well I guess). I may have to watch it but I don't really want to at this point since it sounds like a mess. At least it wasn't a WMUR debate or something, so I'm sure the viewership was limited and I doubt it will matter all that much, though a bunch of the candidates want even more debates and if this keeps happening then it might start to have some negative impacts.

[Brother Jonathan]

lmao Republicans may very well have dodged a bullet here. I've been saying for months that Smith is the only candidate who has a chance of beating Hassan. If the conservatives coalesce around him he wins.

Chuck Morse I think likely wins by around 1 or 2%. He is a MAGA guy overall, but has a lot of political experience in New Hampshire and an inspiring life story.

Morse is very, very swampy and more of an older-style Republican than anything. He's a MAGA guy in the same way that Sununu is, but doesn't have anywhere near the skills to set himself apart.

Unlike Smith and Bolduc he's on the record, as Senate President, passing an abortion ban. Maybe it won't kill Sununu's campaign but I think it could be enough to shift votes to Hassan.

I think the midterm environment will be enough to push Chuck Morse over the top. Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott endorsed him as well, so he will be getting a lot of campaign dollars as well.

My general thought has been that Morse's fundraising, if he is the nominee, probably improves markedly over his primary fundraising which has so far been fairly lackluster. Plus then he will get a lot of outside support that is probably hanging back a bit right now and which won't be as active if Morse isn't the nominee.

[Brother Jonathan]

Nuclear take: Even without Sununu, and with Morse, this could flip before Arizona.

Maybe, but if so I'd say that would be thanks more to the strength of the Democrats, and Mark Kelly in particular, in Arizona and Hassan's relative weakness than to any particular strength on Morse's part. Still think Morse is probably a bit behind Hassan, but if (and it is a big if) Morse is the nominee he makes the race completive and will be able to actually get money which Bolduc probably won't.

I'd be interested to see more polling on the GOP primary, to see if Morse has made any inroads. He seems, from everything I've seen, to be doing well with the grassroots right. Conservative former state Rep JP Marzullo is a co-chair of the campaign in Hillsborough county and he has the endorsement of Ovide Lamontagne (which he is touting on his website). So I wouldn't count Morse out, and I wouldn't pigeonhole him as the rump "establishment" candidate, at least at this point.

[Brother Jonathan]

I suppose I just tend to view Hassan as pretty much as close to a "generic Democrat" as you can get in most ways, she just doesn't really stand out. She's not weak or a bad candidate in absolute terms, just doesn't seem to have the sort of profile that say Shaheen has. Her campaign has been fine in any event, and this race is at the very least lean D no matter who the Republicans nominate.

[Brother Jonathan]

On the subject of the Republican primary, it's fair to say that Bolduc is clearly leading at this point, but I'm going personally somewhat skeptical of his actual chances. We've only had one poll, where Bolduc was clearly very strong (33%, far and away the leader), but that's less impressive when you consider the context. Bolduc ran for Senate in 2020, which of course gives him an advantage over everyone else in the field when it comes to name recognition and in that race, he got 42.3% of the vote. So that Bolduc is starting out strong is not really all that surprising. But I also don't think he has really done anything to build on that early advantage. He's been unable to raise money, he has not gotten the sorts of support from other figures in the state as he did in 2020 (the Wikipedia entry is wrong and I need to edit it, but even if some of those people are in Bolduc's camp some surely have either not committed or are even backing someone else), and he seems to be running a much more bare bones campaign than either Morse of Smith. I'm still willing to agree that by name recognition alone he may be leading, but his inability to run a really meaningful campaign is likely going to hamper him. As far as I can tell he does not have the money for ads and his only campaign events have been a series of town halls. It's also a much more crowded primary than in 2020, so Bolduc has to compete with some of the other more Trumpy right-wingers for votes, whereas I think the general assumption at the outset was that he would have them (and the Trump endorsement, which could still save him but which I doubt is coming) all to himself.

In brief, I essentially still see Bolduc as a very weak frontrunner by virtue of his strong carryover from 2020, but I don't think he has run a good campaign and I think this is more open than some NH politics watchers seem to think.

[Brother Jonathan]

With the obvious caveat that Vermont is of course not super indicative of trends in NH, the Senate primary results in VT, and some other recent primaries, is probably a good sign for Bolduc. Basically, in VT we saw a well-funded candidate with deep support among the grandees of the state party state loose to a much Trumpier type of Republican (also, incidentally, with a military background). Generally it seems that candidates perceived as being Trump aligned are getting a boost without really investing anything or evening getting an outright endorsement, and I assume Bolduc benefits from that pattern. Morse of course is much less alienating to the Trump and more conservative wings than a lot of the candidates who have lost recently, but there is no doubt that Bolduc is still the preferred candidate amongst those voters.

[Brother Jonathan]

With the obvious caveat that Vermont is of course not super indicative of trends in NH, the Senate primary results in VT, and some other recent primaries, is probably a good sign for Bolduc. Basically, in VT we saw a well-funded candidate with deep support among the grandees of the state party state loose to a much Trumpier type of Republican (also, incidentally, with a military background). Generally it seems that candidates perceived as being Trump aligned are getting a boost without really investing anything or evening getting an outright endorsement, and I assume Bolduc benefits from that pattern. Morse of course is much less alienating to the Trump and more conservative wings than a lot of the candidates who have lost recently, but there is no doubt that Bolduc is still the preferred candidate amongst those voters.

I am seeing way more Bolduc signs than any other candidate's.   Which is surprising since I'm in the southeast where I'd expect to see Morse have more support.

That's true as well, seemingly a lot of Bolduc support. I still feel like Bolduc is essentially coasting through this campaign, but it seems like it may actually be enough for him to just coast on his reputation and name recognition.

In my area I'd say it's roughly even, maybe a slight edge for Morse even, but I have seen a decent number of Bolduc signs.

[Brother Jonathan]

Yeah, given both the VT and CT results, I would expect NH Rs to now nominate the Trumpiest candidate. Has Trump endorsed Bolduc here?

No, though he may. It is notable that Corey Lewandowski has been critical of Bolduc, and has published articles publicly stating he doesn't think Trump should endorse him.

https://dailycaller.com/2022/08/07/opinion-republicans-can-win-big-in-new-hampshire-if-trump-backs-the-right-candidate-heres-who-he-should-avoid-lewandowski/


So the Trump people on the ground in NH seem somewhat cool on Bolduc, which may keep Trump from getting involved. I don't think it changes voter perception on who is closest to Trump though.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1559298050950139906

Finally, another Senate primary poll which somewhat tracks with what we have been speculating. Morse is gaining but Bolduc still leads by a substantial margin. If this poll is right it also shows that Bolduc is basically coasting at this point, so its a race for Morse to try and get enough undecideds on his side before the primary.

We can question if the two polls we have are worth much, but I do think they reflect a trend even if the numbers are wrong, and that trend is much better for Morse than Bolduc. Still, as is usually the case this far out, lots of undecideds so how they break will be key. I still tend to think that, given the outcomes of recent primaries in other states, those undecideds will probably break for Bolduc, but there is chance for Morse here to possibly win.

[Brother Jonathan]

A problem for Morse and undecideds is that there is absolutely nothing interesting or appealing about him whatsoever.   He's just a bland, generic Establishment Republican without any redeeming qualities at all.  Voters this cycle haven't been very found of candidates of his profile so far.  He's not all that charismatic when listening to him talk either.

He can gain more support with higher name recognition but he's going to hit a ceiling at some point or another.  The question is if the ceiling is higher than Bolduc's floor.

The biggest threat to Morse might be Smith coming up and splitting the establishment vote with him.  If Smith gets into the double digits I think Bolduc is almost guaranteed to win.

I tend to agree, Bolduc likely wins over those undecideds at this point and so he's still a clear favorite. I think the threat of Smith has mostly passed though (and so too the threat of movement that might undercut Bolduc, though Fenton did gain a bit from the last poll), though of course all of those voters would likely be for Morse and so Smith running at all does cut into Morse at least a little. Maybe he will surge at the last minute, but for right now Smith seems pretty stagnant, with no movement between the two polls we have had.

[Brother Jonathan]

So probably Morse? Smith isn't really catching fire like I expected.

Maybe Fenton or even Vikram? Both seem rather Trumpy in their way, but Trump seems to only endorse people he thinks can win since he doesn't like the optics of being on the losing side of a primary battle, which would suggest Morse. But I also think there is a chance Lewandowski is just making it up or at least fudging, since I seem to recall he said Trump was endorsing earlier on as well. Trump could endorse Morse, but that would seem very out of nowhere at least to me. If he does, I assume Lewandowski must have seriously been part of swaying him in that direction and making an argument that Morse was best suited to beating Hassan. Not sure that winning the general has ever really been a motivating factor for Trump endorsements before though, or how much influence Lewandowski actually has.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/Morse4Senate/status/1561820590641668100

This to me is another indication that Morse has actually done a good job of cultivating the institutions and leadership of the conversative base. If this were a pre-Trump race he would probably be running away with it. But instead he is stuck trailing Bolduc, presumably because Bolduc is 'Trumpier' than Morse.

[Brother Jonathan]

Even though the R party is changing, historically the R base in NH have put forwards some pretty solid canidates on all levels with at least some general appeal.

I generally think their record is actually somewhat spotty, especially at the Congressional level. CD 2 in particular has a primary electorate that has often voted for candidates which are ill-suited to winning the district. The most glaring example was Marilinda Garcia in 2014, who put up a very poor performance given the general trend that year. 'At the senate level though they have been okay, but the only real data point there is 2014, and I do think the rise of Trump really has just shocked the system in a way that makes even that cycle a poor guide to what will happen this time.

[Brother Jonathan]

New UNH poll on the Republican primary

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1701&context=survey_center_polls

Bolduc- 43% (+10 from last UNH poll)
Morse- 22% (+20)
Fenton- 5% (+4)
Vikram- 5% (n/a)
Smith- 3% (-1)

So safe to say that Bolduc probably has this fairly well tied down barring some real shifts to Morse. Bolduc gaining was the one thing Morse really did not want to see in this poll, but it shows that his lead is proving firmer and less stagnant than might have been hoped. Smith has not gone anywhere really, and Fenton has had some modest growth but I doubt he's going to be much of a factor (also has the highest unfavorable numbers, just a point above Bolduc).

One tidbit is that the undecideds are fairly evenly divided on the impact of a Trump endorsement on their vote. 41% say it would make them more likely to vote for a candidate, while 36% it would make them less likely to vote for a candidate. Also notable that it seems, per this poll, that the attacks on Morse haven't really landed all that well. He has the lowest unfavorable ratings out of all the candidates, (10%) while someone like Vikram, with a much lower profile, already has an equal or slightly higher unfavorable rating (13%).

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.wmur.com/article/new-hampshire-senate-race-chris-sununu-chuck-morse/41124111#

Sununu is endorsing Morse

Something of a coordinated effort as of late to boost Morse, but it's probably way too late at this point. If this effort had started a few weeks ago, maybe it would have been more effective, but at this point I am not sure it makes much of a difference. I guess maybe if that Bolduc support was really soft it will help, but the gap between the two is pretty sizeable.