China's Authoritarianism Will Ensure It Won't Rise Any Further as a World Superpower

[Brother Jonathan]

I don't know that I'd say that continued authoritarianism will be China's greatest problem, but I do think its basic structure of government is unsustainable on its current trajectory. As Xi continues to make himself more and more central in the government, he could very well create serious problems for the party and government moving forward. When the party had fairly flexible leaders who served for long periods but generally gave up power after a time, it enjoyed a sort of flexibility that you don't find in regimes dominated by single personalities. With Xi, it seems like he is interested in governing for quite a while, and though he has been fairly competent, I would say he has reduced the government's flexibility by making himself so central, and thus has created potential problems if his successors aren't as competent and their powers are similar to those of Xi. Maybe the party will return to form, and Xi will retire gracefully and help set up a successor, but stripping term limits for high office in the party do not seem to suggest such a move is likely in the near future. Maybe after he leaves the party will revert back more to form, and I certainly think no person with Xi's personal ability will come along immediately after he is gone, but the concern for China now has to be that Xi will create a party structure reliant on such a strong figure at the head to an extent that we haven't really seen since Mao. Such reliance on an increasingly small circle of figures will likely damage the party moving forward.

Again, China has had it's fair share of very strong leaders, but Xi seems to be going farther than most of his predecessors when it comes to changing party structures to ensure his continued influence. Reverting to a Maoist personality cult (which, I would note, Xi likely does not want) will inevitably hamper China's geopolitical aspirations in the long term, even if they serve to somehow bolster them in the short term. I think Russia should be concerned for roughly the same reason, as Putin makes himself ever more central to the Russian government. Put simply, weakening governing and administrative institutions to embolden an effective leader general weakens the ability of the government as a whole to identify and address developing problems as time progresses. "Xi Jinping Thought" could quite quickly develop into a groupthink that saps China's policy making apparatus. Then again, maybe I am overestimating the degree to which Xi want's to change China, but I do think some damage has already been done that will hamper (though not necessarily impede) China moving forward.