New Hampshire Megathread: Sherman in

[Brother Jonathan]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

It's exacerbated by the fact that the party grassroots are very active and powerful, and thus keep more moderate Republicans from gaining influence. Just take Steve Duprey, who lost his bid for another term as GOP national Committeeman because he was pro-choice and was not a dyed in the wool Trump supporter. Even in 2016, Sununu just barely scraped by past Frank Edelblut in the primary, who came out of nowhere with the support of the party base. He won by fewer than 1,000 votes. I feel like, beyond Sununu, there are no Republicans in NH with much of a shot of winning a statewide race right now.

It's even worse in CD 2, where the GOP manages to constantly nominate candidates outside the mainstream who couldn't fundraise if their lives depended on it.

It looks like the grassroots are lining up behind Messner in the Senate primary, but it's too early to tell. Not that this race is really winnable for them, but Messner is the much weaker candidate of the two for so many reasons. I swear, NH GOP primary voters just don't care about winning.

[Brother Jonathan]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

It's exacerbated by the fact that the party grassroots are very active and powerful, and thus keep more moderate Republicans from gaining influence. Just take Steve Duprey, who lost his bid for another term as GOP national Committeeman because he was pro-choice and was not a dyed in the wool Trump supporter. Even in 2016, Sununu just barely scraped by past Frank Edelblut in the primary, who came out of nowhere with the support of the party base. He won by fewer than 1,000 votes. I feel like, beyond Sununu, there are no Republicans in NH with much of a shot of winning a statewide race right now.

It's even worse in CD 2, where the GOP manages to constantly nominate candidates outside the mainstream who couldn't fundraise if their lives depended on it.

It looks like the grassroots are lining up behind Messner in the Senate primary, but it's too early to tell. Not that this race is really winnable for them, but Messner is the much weaker candidate of the two for so many reasons. I swear, NH GOP primary voters just don't care about winning.

The same in almost all New England: if you are moderate (and especially - at least somewhat liberal) - you have much better career perspectives in Democratic party (Kuster parents were liberal Republicans in the past). So, essentially, only ultraconservatives, who have nowhere else to go, remain in Republican party. The mirror image situation of what we observe in many parts of the South, where there are no reasons for you to be a conservative Democrat when you may have much better career as Republican.

I just find it particularly frustrating in New Hampshire, where there are winnable races that get thrown away because the party base is too insistent on nominating partisan Republicans, or just very conservative candidates in swing districts. At this point only Maine and New Hampshire have competitive state GOPs at every level in New England (Connecticut is on the cusp of relevance, I suppose) and they keep kneecapping themselves by playing to the base while ignoring the 1/3rd of voters who are independent.

The NH GOP also seems pretty much uncontrollable. I know my State Rep at home, a Republican, likes to brag about how little power the GOP whips have in the State House, and recently I've actually seen GOP grassroots groups on social media calling the Republican governor a tyrant in light of his response to COVID. Putting the policy merits aside, the fact that the NH GOP allows its local branches to be vocally critical of the de facto leader of the state party is just sort of representative of the total lack of organization and discipline in the state party right now. I guess that's true in a lot of states, but it seems pretty pronounced here sometimes. It wouldn't be so frustrating if it were say Vermont or Mass (where this stuff also happens), where the GOP is consigned to irrelevance for the foreseeable future, but the NH GOP actually has a shot every now and again and they just always manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 

[Brother Jonathan]

Who is Komi and what did he or she say/do?

Richard Komi was a State Rep who claimed that "the female anatomy" made Tara Reade's claim "impossible" unless she "cooperated". He later back peddled, and simple said it was false, and he resigned.

[Brother Jonathan]

It's amazing that with all the legislature seats in NH, the GOP still seems to struggle to find decent candidates to run for the congressional seats.

There's really no bench.

Can't they bring back John Sununu? What about their Executive Council members?

I don't see either of the GOP Councilors running for Congress. Gatsas maybe, but he is 70 now and would be running against the youthful Chris Pappas. Russell Prescott is not running for re-election (maybe with an eye on the Governor's office sometime soon), and doesn't seem like he would do well against Pappas (though maybe he would, like Sununu, outperform in the Seacoast).

John Sununu seems done with politics. If he had really wanted to, he probably could have run for his old seat in 2014, and would have had a decent shot at winning (honestly, I think he would have won).

It's also interesting to note that Gatsas, Prescott, and Sununu all have their political base in the 1st District, which just underlines how low powered the 2nd District GOP is.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1270524369526194182

It appears that Chris Sununu will receive a primary challenger to his right, angry with his response to Covid-19. He already had a token challenger (a man who legally changed his name to "Nobody).

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1270524369526194182

It appears that Chris Sununu will receive a primary challenger to his right, angry with his response to Covid-19. He already had a token challenger (a man who legally changed his name to "Nobody).

This clown is back?

Oh yes indeed. She obviously doesn't stand a chance, but her running is pretty much emblematic of the discord that has marked the NH GOP for quite a while, and has intensified recently with Sununu's COVID response. Anecdotally, I can say that there is a pretty vocal faction within the party that has decided that Sununu is a "RINO" and no longer worthy of support and I guess Testerman is their voice in the primary.

[Brother Jonathan]

Some Executive Council ratings:

EC-1: (D+1) It turns out the fifth time was the charm for long-time Grafton County Commissioner Mike Cryans (D-Hanover), who beat Joe Kenney in this northern district after their fourth electoral matchup. This seat flipping was an actual shock, as it had trended heavily to Republicans. Nevertheless, Grafton's deep-blue tint helped tilt the district. Toss-up

EC-2: (D+7) The "crescent moon district", which has become NH's symbol, is safe. However, there's a clown car primary with six candidates. I've talked about Surdukowski, Plunkett, Warmington, and Soldati, but I haven't talked about the other two. The old guard seems to be coalescing around Warmington, with scattered support among the rest.

John Shea (D-Nelson) is an interesting story. After signing up to run as a sacrificial lamb against a 12-year-incumbent, he wound up winning. After losing in 2010, he's run every time the seat's been open and lost in the primary.

The next candidate is state representative and farmer Craig Thompson (D-Harrisville). He may very well have the endorsement of Volinsky, and seems like he has a lot of progressive support. One major downside is that he supports updating our election registration to match the Motor Voter law, which is generally seen as the thing holding Republicans back from repealing election-day registration.

I would probably be leaning towards Warmington or Plunkett if I lived in the district. I'm not sure who Plunkett endorsed (whether it be Buttigieg/Klobuchar/Warren), but as I've described I'm not a fan of Mayor Pete, especially considering recent events. While Thompson is closer to my beliefs, I'm troubled that he would remove the one thing stopping Republicans from enacting their ideal voter suppression agenda. I would probably vote third-party over Surdukowski.

Republicans are running former NH-2 candidate Stewart Levenson (R-Concord). Either way, it's Safe D. In a wave, this might be attainable, but not now.

NH-3 (R+4): This inelastic district is vacant, due to a retirement. Former NH-1 candidate/state representative Mindi Messmer (D-Rye) has a challenger in 5-term state rep Patty Lovejoy (D-Exeter), who's running a campaign stressing her experience. It just seems like too little too late - as someone in the area, I didn't even know she was running. The party's united around Messmer.

The Republican primary is crowded. Former state rep Tim Comerford (R-Fremont) is facing off against former candidate/businessman Bruce Crochetiere (R-Hampton) and businesswoman Janet Stevens (R-Rye). Crochetiere seems like the overwhelming favorite, being endorsed by Innis along with the conservative grassroots. As much of a Mindi hack I am, I'm still a bit skeptical that we can flip this. Toss-up/Tilt R

NH-4: (R+3) Former mayor/state senator Ted Gatsas (R-Manchester) had a successful comeback bid against Gray Chynoweth, flipping this seat back. Although it's trended towards Clinton slightly. Democrats are running former AFL/CIO head and NH-1 candidate Mark MacKenzie (D-Manchester). While he had a very disappointing finish, a lot of it was out of his control (namely due to the presence of Chris Pappas cutting into his base). The general trend of the district makes me put this as a Toss-up.

NH-5: Councilor Deborah Pignatelli (D-Nashua) is going up against former state senate Majority Leader Bob Clegg (R-Hudson). While the district is trending away, Pignatelli is a strong candidate with a lot of ties to the Nashua area. Lean D

Dave Wheeler, the former Executive Councilor, is also running in the GOP primary for District 5. How do think that primary will pan out? I could see Clegg being favored, but I think Wheeler may win simply because he so recently represented the district, so he has strong ties to the entire district.

[Brother Jonathan]

That's certainly true. Being from Hudson also probably helps him in the Nashua area, which will probably prove to be pretty important in the primary.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1622&context=survey_center_polls
I know people are critical of UNH polls to some extent, but I will say this is an interesting finding at least from a ballpark standpoint: they're projecting that the GOP takes back the State House and tie the Senate.

It seems like UNH has had very bullish numbers for the GOP this time around. I mean we also had the poll showing something like a 4 point margin in NH-02, so take it with a grain of salt. Still some interesting numbers.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1622&context=survey_center_polls
I know people are critical of UNH polls to some extent, but I will say this is an interesting finding at least from a ballpark standpoint: they're projecting that the GOP takes back the State House and tie the Senate.

It seems like UNH has had very bullish numbers for the GOP this time around. I mean we also had the poll showing something like a 4 point margin in NH-02, so take it with a grain of salt. Still some interesting numbers.

Interesting poll, though I'm highly skeptical of UNH's. Last Governor's race they had it tied and Sununu won 52% to 45%

UNH isn't the best when it comes to polling I suppose, but I appreciate that they provide numbers for the State House. They underestimated the Democrats in 2018 in the State House, and the same might prove true here. Part of it, I assume, is just that the personal vote can be a major factor when you may have personally met a large chunk of likely voters. I don't think generic ballot is ever that helpful, and especially not when districts are this small.

[Brother Jonathan]

Quick election guide to the downballot:

NH-Gov:Chris Sununu might be vulnerable in a different time, but it became pretty rapidly clear that Dan Feltes is not that candidate. As I've said, Feltes is the most scripted candidate I've seen since Marco Rubio. The guy's progressive - don't get me wrong - but I was opposed to his candidacy because I think he's unelectable. You can look at him campaigning and you know the guy is extremely stiff, relying on talking points that are often from the NHDP themselves. Sometimes, you can look at the candidate and find a diamond in the rough who might pull off an upset. Feltes isn't it.

It doesn't help that the NHDP's main gameplan has been "orange man 2.0 bad". The main talking point against Sununu is an old quote from 2016 about him saying he's a "Trump guy through and through." After Sununu's solid beginning COVID response, it's harder to tie him to Trump, and there isn't enough memories. Repeating Sununu's line only does so much, and you need to convince people why you're the better candidate. It's a shame, because there are plenty of places to hit Sununu on - namely his flip-flops, his inability to work with the legislature, and being okay with the GOP's voter suppression schemes. You could even follow it up with him appointing political hacks to important positions like Chief Justice and Secretary of Education! Instead, they decided to say "sununu is orange man" over and over again. Andru Volinsky probably wouldn't have won, but at least he had plans and ideas. Feltes has talking points. Safe R

NH-Senate: Safe D. Corky Messner (R-CO) manages to combine carpetbagging with even more baggage (actually being more conservative, combined with charity fraud). At least Scott Brown had some sort of moderate image and hopped over from Massachusetts.

NH-1: Also Safe D, given Matt Mowers (R-DC)'s tenuous ties to the district, being a literal Trump acolyte, and now, his homophobic attacks on Chris Pappas. He's now currently trying to imply that Pappas is sleeping with lobbyists for votes. His boyfriend apparently used to be a lobbyist for Amazon, but has since left the company. Anyways, Pappas has a distinct local advantage on Manchester, Mowers is human filth, and I cannot wait for him to be trounced.

NH-2:Safe D, much like last time. Some memey UNH poll says Steve Negron is only down 3 but I really don't see it. Guy was a bad candidate in 2018 and is still a bad candidate now - especially considering Biden is better for the district.

Executive Council:My brain says Democrats go up 4-1, but my gut says 3-2. It will be a strong result that will give the Democrats insurance after redistricting. The pivot seats are EC-1 and EC-3 here. EC-4 has an outside chance of flipping on a good night, giving Democrats a clean sweep, but I'm bearish on MacKenzie. Either way, Democrats are pushing hard to get a female majority on the council. Lean D

EC-1: (D+1) Mike Cryans (I) (Hanover) vs. Joe Kenney (Union)[/b]: It is the fifth rematch between Mike Cryans and Joe Kenney in the far-northern reaches of the state. Mike Cryans is an interesting story, in that he was considered a perennial candidate but managed to finally break through after his sixth attempt at running for the seat. He's fundraising pretty well, and is actually a good candidate. The general Trump trend of the district is giving me pause, but I think Cryans is slightly favored because of the environment. Toss-up

EC-2 (D+7): Cinde Warmington (Concord) vs. Jim Beard (Lempster): I was worried about the primary, but it turns out Democrats won. Any of the candidates would have been good for the seat except Surdukowski, who was ostensibly a Republican plant running to confirm Sununu's Attorney General. I was scared of an Auchincloss situation happening, but that didn't come to fruition. The winner, healthcare lobbyist Cinde Warmington, now faces pilot Jim Beard. He ran for SD-8, but failed to beat Ruth Ward in the general. Either way, this is a comically gerrymandered seat that stretches from Keene to Durham. Safe D

EC-3 (R+4): Mindi Messmer (Rye) vs. Janet Stevens (Rye): It's interesting seeing Stevens win, because she was originally a NeverTrumper and Weld co-chair. She's definitely more moderate (if you can call the Kasich wing moderate), but she's apparently well-known in local GOP circles. Nevertheless, Messmer is a very strong candidate with deep local ties, and the suburbs are only getting bluer. I think Messmer has got a clear advantage, since she has a long history of work in the district and blunts Stevens's geographic advantages, but my gut says that people are underrating Stevens. Toss-up

EC-4 (R+3): Mark MacKenzie (Manchester) vs. Ted Gatsas (I) (Manchester): As Pappas established, there's a pathway to win this gerrymandered seat. I don't think MacKenzie is the right candidate, given SLH's warnings, his performance in the NH-1 primary last cycle, and his unnecessary missteps. Most notably, he sabotaged Messmer's speech at the Women's March when they ran against each other, and actually bled union endorsements to Pappas. Gatsas may have lost his mayorship, but I think he'll hold this seat down for another year. Lean R

EC-5 (R+1): Deb Pignatelli (I) vs. Dave Wheeler: Down in the southern part of the state, we have another rematch. Given the Democratic year and the lack of a trend here, I'd expect things to turn out pretty well for the incumbent. Lean D
State Senate: Key races to watch are SD-1, SD-2, SD-7, SD-8, SD-9, SD-12, and SD-23. Hypothetically this looks like a solid pickup opportunity for Republicans, with a favorable map and all, but low candidate quality really hurts them. Most districts that they lost are moving rapidly away, the environment is against them, and Dems are outpacing them financially. The chances of a supermajority dropped when Starr lost his primary, but holding the line seems like an easy task now. Lean D

SD-1 (D+1): Susan Ford (Easton) vs. Erin Hennessey (Littleton): Accidental senator David Starr lost his primary challenge, and it wasn't even close. In a strange step, Sununu endorsed Hennessey's challenge to Starr - presumably because she has been an ally of the governor and she's a better candidate for the seat. Democrats' candidate is Susan Ford, a 4-term state representative with a mixed bag. She survived in 2014, but lost in 2016 and 2010. Hennessey, in contrast, held her seat in 2018. I keep waffling between toss-up and Lean R here, but I'm going to go with my gut. Lean R

SD-2 (R+3): Bill Bolton (Plymouth) vs. Bob Giuda (I) (Warren): Another rematch, this time with an incumbent. Giuda used to have a reputation as a lunatic, but has moderated (he was one of the Republican crossovers for death penalty reveal. Bill Bolton lost by 3 point last time, but with COVID backlash, I'm not ready to declare an advantage towards any candidate. Toss-up

SD-3 (R+4): Theresa Swanick (Effingham) vs. Jeb Bradley (I) (Wolfeboro): Swanick is a slightly more well-known candidate than most others, but she's not beating Bradley's name recognition advantage and the trend of the district. Safe R

SD-4 (D+7): David Watters (I) (Dover) vs. Frank Bertone (Dover): Dover is trending Democratic quickly. Even without the Democratic trend, Frank Bertone is a conspiracy nut who believes Satanists are in control of our government. Truly amazing how Republicans have gone from Eddie Edwards to this clown. Safe D

SD-5 (D+15): Sue Prentiss (Lebanon) vs. Tim O'Hearne (Charlestown): This is a Democratic vote sink. O'Hearne is a literal who. Safe D

SD-6 (R+6): Christopher Rice (Rochester) vs. James Gray (I) (Rochester): Normally, I'd be writing this off because of how hard the Rochester area trended towards Trump, but Rice is actually a decent candidate with a compelling profile and roots in Rochester. I'm not ruling him out quite yet. Likely R

SD-7 (R+3): Phil Spagnuolo (Laconia) vs. Harold French (I) (Franklin): Democrats can win (and have won) here, but the district is slipping away quickly. Much like SD-1, this seat is Trump country, and Republicans beat a strong canidate  French notably overperformed the rest of his northern colleagues, but is going up against a much stronger candidate in former state rep/recovery coach Phil Spagnuolo, who has an advantage in Laconia and a history of winning tough elections. I think it'll be closer than everyone expected, but French has the indubitable upper hand. Lean R

SD-8 (R+2): Jenn Alford-Teaster (Sutton) vs. Ruth Ward (I) (Sutton): Another rematch from 2018. Ward only won by two points, but seems to be lagging behind in fundraising. I'm really not sure who wins here, especially post-COVID. Toss-up

SD-9 (R+2): Jeanne Dietsch (I) (Bedford) vs. Denise Ricciardi (Bedford): Denise Ricciardi is a compelling candidate. That being said, the istrict is trending towards Democrats fairly rapidly. Ricciardi is a strong candidate who could flip this in a wave, but not now. Lean D

SD-10 (D+10): Jay Kahn (I) (Keene) vs. Dan LeClair (Swanzey): It's Keene. Safe D

SD-11 (R+2): Shannon Chandley (I) (Bedford) vs. Gary Daniels (Milford): The second of our rematch candidates. Chandley's first run went very well and I don't expect things to change. Likely D

SD-12 (R+2): Melanie Levesque (I) (Brookline)) vs. Kevin Avard (Nashua): Not only is Kevin Avard lagging massively behind in fundraising, he has recently come out in support of QAnon. Between this and Levesque's stronger position, I'm gonna move this towards Democrats. Lean D

SD-13 (D+7): Cindy Rosenwald (I) (Nashua) vs. Mariellen MacKay (Nashua): MacKay, an ex-Democrat, is a good candidate in theory. This is not a wave year, so Republicans will lose significantly. Safe D

SD-14 (R+9): Nancy Hendricks (Londonderry) vs. Sharon Carson (I) (Londonderry): Hendricks is strong, the district is holding, and Carson's margins have been narrowing here, but the district is still very Republican. If everything goes right for Democrats and there's a credible third-party candidate, Democrats might have a chance in the future. Even with Londonderry trending, I don't see them making up five points. Safe R

SD-15 (D+9): Becky Whitley (Hopkinton) vs. Linda Rae Banfill (Concord): It's Concord. Safe D

SD-16 (R+2): Jason Syversen (Hooksett) vs. Kevin Cavanaugh (I) (Manchester): Cavanaugh beat David Boutin (the seat's previous occupant) by 5 points. Syversen comes from an interesting background, but he's definitely not the right candidate. Likely D

SD-17 (R+6): Nancy Fraher (Chichester) vs. John Reagan (I) (Deerfield): Fraher lost by 20% in 2016. The district is falling away from Democrats quickly. Safe R

SD-18 (R+1): Donna Soucy (I) (Manchester) vs. George Lambert (Litchfield): We have seen this song and dance before last year. Lambert got shellacked. Safe D

SD-19 (R+9): Joshua Bourdon (Londonderry) vs. Regina Birdsell (I) (Londonderry): This is another compelling district. Bourdon is a very strong candidate who serves on the Derry Town Council (the largest city in the district). Windham (which has been the NHGOP's refuge against masks) and Hampstead are still in the district, but Bourdon has been able to keep things competitive regardless. I think you'll see a surprisingly close margin here, given the reputation this district has. Likely R

SD-20 (D+2): Lou D'Allessandro (I) (Manchester) vs. Carla Gericke (Manchester): Any danger Lou would have faced would have been from the primary. As long as he makes it to the general, he has nothing to worry about. Safe D

SD-21 (D+16): Rebecca Perkins Kwoka (Portsmouth) vs. Sue Polidura (Portsmouth): It's Portsmouth and Durham. This is the vote-sink the GOP created to try and shore up SD-24. Safe D

SD-22 (R+12): Tom Haynes (Salem) vs. Chuck Morse (I) (Salem): It's Salem. Safe R

SD-23 (R+4): Bill Gannon (Sandown) vs. Jon Morgan (I) (Brentwood): Morgan is a very strong candidate. His win wasn't a fluke, and the fact that Republicans opted for a rematch bodes well for him. While it does have some Democratic turf like Exeter, it cuts into exurban Manchester, so I have a bit of pause to put it at Lean D. It's still a toss-up, but Morgan has an advantage. Toss-up

SD-24 (R+2): Lou Gargiulo (Hampton Falls) vs. Tom Sherman (I) (Hampton): Gargiulo can self-fund, but the district's trend is too strong. Likely D

Races to Watch:

Rockingham-5 (R+7): Londonderry is only getting bluer. The seat is noteworthy because of one of its current occupants, Al Baldasaro. The guy's always been in hot water for generally saying nasty things, but he's gotten some national buzz as a key figure in Trump's campaign for the veteran vote. The district has been trending strongly towards Democrats, and one of them managed to win a seat here. If more pour in, you could actually see the head of the Trump Caucus lose his seat. Lean R

What are you thoughts on the State House? At this point I think Dems maybe pick up a few, but I don't think they get a supermajority. I also wouldn't be shocked if they lost a handful. Granted, it's basically pointless to try and prognosticate anything with the State House since it has 400 members.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1336811093264658434

Quite a shock. He was just elected Speaker.

I don't know what House procedure is for this, but I am interested to see if the House GOP rallies to another Speaker candidate quickly. I would guess that the Acting Speaker will probably get the job full time sometime soon.

[Brother Jonathan]

What are the chances of the NH GOP going for right to work again? If I remember right they tried for it in 2018 when they last had the trifecta and got tripped up on it. How many of the GOP reps who voted against it are still there?

I would guess they wouldn't just because the majority is so small and there will be GOP Reps who vote against it. That being said never underestimate the desire of the NH GOP to charge headlong into ideological battles it has no hope of winning.

I think Sununu doesn't have much of an appetite for it. He's had a fairly cozy relationship with some of the unions in the state (he was endorsed by the firefighters and IBEW) and he may try to keep them on his side for when he runs for Senate (which seems basically inevitable at this point). To be sure he has had very tense relations with most unions, but why try passing a bill that will face some intraparty opposition and a close vote (likely to fail, even) when he could just let it sit and try to win some support for a Senate run. Even if it is unlikely that the Firefighters will endorse him, I think he would probably rightly just not risk aggravating them and hoping they may endorse him in the end. Maybe the union endorsements don't matter, but still, they don't hurt and it always makes for a good story on the news.

I think the GOP will also try to keep the powder dry for larger issues. And I gather Sununu was a major driver behind the attempt to pass Right to Work in 2018, so I don't really think this is an issue that the leadership is going to have a lot of backbench pressure to act on.

[Brother Jonathan]

What are the chances of the NH GOP going for right to work again? If I remember right they tried for it in 2018 when they last had the trifecta and got tripped up on it. How many of the GOP reps who voted against it are still there?

I would guess they wouldn't just because the majority is so small and there will be GOP Reps who vote against it. That being said never underestimate the desire of the NH GOP to charge headlong into ideological battles it has no hope of winning.

I think Sununu doesn't have much of an appetite for it. He's had a fairly cozy relationship with some of the unions in the state (he was endorsed by the firefighters and IBEW) and he may try to keep them on his side for when he runs for Senate (which seems basically inevitable at this point). To be sure he has had very tense relations with most unions, but why try passing a bill that will face some intraparty opposition and a close vote (likely to fail, even) when he could just let it sit and try to win some support for a Senate run. Even if it is unlikely that the Firefighters will endorse him, I think he would probably rightly just not risk aggravating them and hoping they may endorse him in the end. Maybe the union endorsements don't matter, but still, they don't hurt and it always makes for a good story on the news.

I think the GOP will also try to keep the powder dry for larger issues. And I gather Sununu was a major driver behind the attempt to pass Right to Work in 2018, so I don't really think this is an issue that the leadership is going to have a lot of backbench pressure to act on.

Well, I was wrong on this one. Right to Work is back as Senate Bill 61, with the Majority Leader and Senate President as co-sponsors. It may still fail (I think it likely will, though I really don't know) but in any event, it clearly has some strong support from leadership.

Quite a few interesting (shall we say) bills have been introduced so far this session, but that is par for the course in the 400 member House.

[Brother Jonathan]

What are the chances of the NH GOP going for right to work again? If I remember right they tried for it in 2018 when they last had the trifecta and got tripped up on it. How many of the GOP reps who voted against it are still there?

I would guess they wouldn't just because the majority is so small and there will be GOP Reps who vote against it. That being said never underestimate the desire of the NH GOP to charge headlong into ideological battles it has no hope of winning.

I think Sununu doesn't have much of an appetite for it. He's had a fairly cozy relationship with some of the unions in the state (he was endorsed by the firefighters and IBEW) and he may try to keep them on his side for when he runs for Senate (which seems basically inevitable at this point). To be sure he has had very tense relations with most unions, but why try passing a bill that will face some intraparty opposition and a close vote (likely to fail, even) when he could just let it sit and try to win some support for a Senate run. Even if it is unlikely that the Firefighters will endorse him, I think he would probably rightly just not risk aggravating them and hoping they may endorse him in the end. Maybe the union endorsements don't matter, but still, they don't hurt and it always makes for a good story on the news.

I think the GOP will also try to keep the powder dry for larger issues. And I gather Sununu was a major driver behind the attempt to pass Right to Work in 2018, so I don't really think this is an issue that the leadership is going to have a lot of backbench pressure to act on.

Well, I was wrong on this one. Right to Work is back as Senate Bill 61, with the Majority Leader and Senate President as co-sponsors. It may still fail (I think it likely will, though I really don't know) but in any event, it clearly has some strong support from leadership.

Quite a few interesting (shall we say) bills have been introduced so far this session, but that is par for the course in the 400 member House.

Yikes... thanks for the update even though it’s not a happy one!

A final update for this session on RTW:

https://patch.com/new-hampshire/bedford-nh/nh-house-kills-gop-touted-right-work-bill


As before, the GOP failed to get the votes and Right to Work failed to pass. The GOP knew it was going to fail and tried to table it, but that vote failed so it went to the floor and the ought to pass vote failed 199-175, and then it was "indefinitely postponed," which kills it until 2023, as a 2/3rds majority in favor of reconsidering is unlikely. Hence the GOP effort to table it earlier.

20 GOP reps crossed over to help kill the bill in the final vote.

[Brother Jonathan]

Saw this while on Twitter today:

https://twitter.com/LeahCohen603/status/1427002983909404675

Frank Edelblut, Commissioner of Education and a candidate in the 2016 GOP primary for governor, was the keynote speaker at a meeting of the Belknap County Republican Committee. Signs (which appear to be from his 2016 campaign for Governor) were prominently displayed around the room. Might be nothing, but this doesn't strike me as normal. I'll have to watch the video to find out more, but this seems to be a good indication Edelblut is planning on running for Governor in 2022, or at least that many within the party want him to. I think at this point it's been a pretty open secret for a while that he wanted to run again, and with Sununu likely running for Senate, I suppose he sees this as a good opportunity.

Edelblut strikes me as a rather imposing candidate. He did very well in 2016 despite being only a State Rep and has only increased his profile (and his connections with those within the party) since then. I do think he might be the preferred candidate at this point of many in the GOP, and he might bridge the ideological gaps within the party fairly well. I also don't think he is as weak a general election candidate as some seem to think—he's certainly to Sununu's right, but I think that has sort of been papered over and if he ran a decent campaign he could still win. Still not the strongest candidate for the GOP. I expect he'll make any move official as soon as Sununu does the same, and try to establish himself early.

Also did not realize Karen Testerman, who challenged Sununu in 2020, has already stated she is running in the 2022 primary as well. Article here:

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-karen-testerman-running-again-for-governor-says-im-not-a-protest-candidate/37162007#

[Brother Jonathan]

Per the website, Edleblut didn't bring the signs, but it still shows that many among the rank and file are already in his corner.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://nhjournal.com/exclusive-poll-nhgop-voters-love-trump-hate-crt-want-secure-border/

here's something interesting:

Ayotte: 45% (!!)
Scott Brown: 13%
Frank Edelbut: ~7%
Chuck Morse: ~6%

Ayotte has more of a commanding lead than I honestly would've expected. Edelbut is lower than expected. Brown I don't think (?) is running.

Brown has suggested he might return to politics, but I doubt he will in 2022, considering his wife is running for Congress in the 1st District.

I'm also amazed Ayotte is polling so well, but that's good news for the GOP if they want to have any chance of holding the Governor's office in 2022. I assume being out of the spotlight for the Trump years has helped her a fair deal there.

She's also been much more visible in the state than in the recent past (she was campaigning for a State Rep special election the other day, for example) so I have to guess she is going to run for whatever office Sununu doesn't run for. Interested to hear who the Democrats perceive as the front runners for their nomination. Joyce Craig and Volinsky are the two that come to my mind.