Harris: Bush +3 (w/ Nader) / Approval 48%

[California Dreamer]

Head to Head (likely voters April 8-15)
Bush 46
Kerry 43
Nader 8


It also shows Bush and his entire cabinet at their lowest levels for approval.

Name: (positive/negative)
Bush: 48 / 51
Cheney: 36 / 52
Powell: 63 / 31
Rumsfeld: 45 / 47
Ashcroft: 40 / 45

Compared to previous reelections, the presidents level are in between the winners and the losers, but closer to the winners.

April Aproval Ratings for winners:
Nixon April 1972: 50 / 46
Reagan April 1984: 61 / 39
Clinton April 1996: 52 / 47

April Aproval Ratings for losers:
Ford April 1976: 37 / 60
Carter April 1980 36 / 63
Bush Sr April 1992 37 / 62


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[California Dreamer]

if you read more closely you will see that they provide head to head date for all adults, registered voters and likely voters.

As expected Kerry does best amongst 'all adults'


RE: Nader
Actually it seems Nader has been enjoying a bit of a surge in polls that include him lately. Plus he is repositioning himself as the "Peace/Get out of Iraq Now" candidate. This can be very bad for Kerry cuase it will give protest voters something to hand their hat on that is more tangible and exciting than "stop corporate corruption"

[California Dreamer]

what I take away from this is:

Bush's VP and cabinet is not very popular (and therefore little help in campaigning)
Bush is not as unpopular as his father
Bush is not as popular as Reagan

...so from a precedent nothing from this points to a PV landslide either way.