DS0816
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,192
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« on: June 16, 2009, 09:25:13 PM » |
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« edited: June 16, 2009, 09:28:02 PM by DS0816 »
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Quickly: I figure President Barack Obama will gain in Electoral College votes and win re-election easily. The night of Nov. 6, 2012 will be settled more quickly than the 11 pm ET projection, on Nov. 4, 2008, and Obama will be like Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan: His Republican challenger will either be a non-threat or an unviable candidate—good news, either way.
Not that I'm figuring [Obama] will end up winning an additional 21 states, to match 1972 Nixon's and 1984 Reagan's 49-state wipeout re-elections; but I've tossed around the notion, in another thread, of Obama retaining all of his 28 states (plus Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia) in his first election [2008] and expanding numbers of states carried [2012]. If it's a tidal wave, look toward some states you'd think, right now, aren't on the radar. Potential states (those carried by 2008 John McCain under 10 points are in purple) that Obama could put in play and/or flip: Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Tennessee, Missouri, South Carolina, Louisiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and the 1st Congressional District in the state of Nebraska.
I believe [Obama's] 2008 margin of 7.25 points in the popular vote will swing a few points north for the Democratic party president—enough to qualify as a landslide. And in the process, he'll take more states. And those he doesn't—which many here would think include half of what I had offered up—will swing such states. If Obama has the same level swing in 2012 that he had in 2008—a 10-point national swing—then what I'm bringing up with the likes of, say, Ark., Ky., La., Tenn., and W.Va. is not so crazy.
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