will Barack Obama be re-elected?

[DS0816]

I answered this question in another thread on Barack Obama retaining the state of Florida in Election 2012. (Answer to that question is yes.)

Early prediction: Barack Obama will be a two-term president. And he will gain in electoral votes. I noted that—with exception of Woodrow Wilson, and not counting the non-consecutive two terms of Grover Cleveland (which is unusual) and Franklin Roosevelt (elected not twice but four times)—all other two-term presidents ending up netting additional Electoral College votes.

For those wanting to speculate early, and predict an Obama re-election, please note that historical fact and let your two-cents reflect a gain in the Electoral College of Election 2012.

[DS0816]

Note: I'm not a premium member, so I'm not aware whether I can generate a 2012 electoral map.

One thing I have considered: When it comes to Election 2012, if President Barack Obama (D-Illinois) loses any states, he'll take some away from the GOP and net a gain in electoral votes. (Say, for example, the GOP wins back Republican bastion Indiana. Obama counters with bellwether Missouri—won by less 4,000 votes by a 2008 John McCain—and he also grabs Montana. It has voted the same as Colorado in all post-World War II elections, save for '08—in which Obama did not quite collapse the 20-point margin George W. Bush had in carrying the Big Sky State in 2004; shifting 18 points Democratic, Obama lost Mont. by 11,000-plus votes and 2.5 percentage points.)

Another thing is this: If Obama is considered a success by Election 2012, he may be in for a landslide in both the popular vote (10 percentage points, minimum) and Electoral College (which has never been officially defined). In that scenario, he doesn't surrender a single state—not even Ind.—carried in Election 2008. And he builds on top of that electoral success in adding numerous others. Which ones are a matter of determination, speculation, and what-have-you.

[DS0816]

When you got as much charisma and persuadability as Obama, it would take a thermonuclear holocaust to lose reelection. The economic downturn started during Bush's term and he can always leave the blame on the Bush regime. And when the economy gets worse he can just claim it's just an aftereffect of Republican policies enacted a long time ago blah blah blah and knowing the guillability of the electorate, they might just buy it.

Ronnie Reagan didn't mind with predecessor Jimmy Carter. (Smart man. And, hey, facts are facts!)

(The part of your post I like best has been highlighted in bold. My way of saying thank you!)