What would it take for your state to flip on the presidential level?

[DS0816]

…

2. You need the negative conditions in the country that are causing the wave to be more profound in Oregon Than the rest of the country like it was for Indiana in 2008

3. You need a characteristic republican from the West…

Add the state of Washington.

Since Washington first voted in 1892, it and Oregon have voted the same in all U.S. presidential elections with exceptions of five cycles: 1896 (Republican pickup of the presidency for William McKinleywith Oregon); 1912 and 1916 (during the presidency of Democrat Woodrow Wilson when they never aligned the same); 1948 (when losing nominee Thomas Dewey won a Republican pickup of Oregon); and 1968 (when Republican presidential pickup winner Richard Nixon flipped and carried Oregon).

Oregon and Washington have carried the same since 1972—a total of 48 years, through 2020, for 13 consecutive cycles.

For the two states to have another occurrence in which they disagree—yes, the Republicans would succeed with flipping and carrying Oregon. But, the two are not far apart for where they tend to slot in the best-performed states rankings. So, it would be feasible that if a Republican wins the presidency and flips and carries Oregon … so, too, possibly with Washington.

[DS0816]

I live in bellwether Michigan.

The next Republican pickup of the presidency will include a likewise Republican pickup of this state.

It is likely Michigan will continue to closely reflect the U.S. Popular Vote.

A Republican pickup of Michigan would include a Republican pickup of the county which may now be the best bellwether county to the state: Saginaw County.

I also look to a Republican pickup of Muskegon County.

The path to carrying Michigan is realigning to some extent. Some counties which used to be aligned to the Republicans are either realigned to the Democrats … or they are well on their way. Likewise with reverse situation. And this is why I single out Muskegon County.

In 2020, for U.S. Senate, then-Republican challenger John James (now-U.S. Rep. with Michigan #10) almost unseated Democratic incumbent Gary Peters, with a statewide percentage-points margin of –1.68. (Outcome: James 48.22% vs. Peters 49.90%.)

In Muskegon County, James won a Republican pickup to carry it by +0.49. (Outcome: James 49.02% vs. Peters 48.53%.)

By comparison, Kent County, with its most populous city and county seat Grand Rapids, is realigning to the Democrats, and both Joe Biden (with a Democratic pickup of the state and county) and Peters … was more Democratic than Muskegon County. (It used to be the opposite.)

It is highly likely a Republican pickup of Michigan will include Muskegon County.

A related report:

https://www.mlive.com/politics/2020/11/very-high-turnout-in-muskegon-county-leads-to-strong-showing-by-republicans.html