A point to illustrate how ridiculous and unbalanced the EC is: What would the map in 2020 have looked like if Trump defeated Biden or any Dem candidate 51.3% to 46.9% in the NPV and 81 to 74 million raw votes?
Margin of Republican +4.45 would have yielded carriage of 32 states.
Take the 2016 map of 30 states, for Donald Trump, and flip two of the following: Maine (statewide), Minnesota, and New Hampshire.
A national margin of +5 would have delivered all three.
Had the last two Republican presidential pickup winners—2000 George W. Bush and 2016 Donald Trump—won the U.S Popular Vote, they would have reached +2. (This is based on an average of +1 pickup state with each percentage point, in the U.S. Popular Vote, nationally shifted in the direction of a pickup-winning party. Example: a 2016 Trump, following 2012 Mitt Romney, went from –3.86 to –2.09. Normal structural pattern would have had Trump—who flipped six states plus
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District—reach +2.)
Nowadays Republicans, when they win the presidency, tend to carry +28 states in addition to their percentage-points margin in the U.S. Popular Vote. Democrats, when they win, are at +21 or +22. A Democrat winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +4 will carry either 25 (a 2020 Joe Biden) or 26 (a 2012 Barack Obama) states. A Republican winning the U.S. Popular Vote by +4 will carry 32 states.
The suggested order, from the 2016 Republicans, was that New Hampshire was their No. 31 best state and Minnesota their No. 32 state. I include Maine (statewide) because the particular carried order for either party is not exactly the same election after election.
