Definitely he would be favored:
(1) He nearly beaten the incumbent senator and did better then Trump did in 2020.
(2 )It is Biden midterm.
(3) MI is a purple state.
I think atlas user will still take him with a grain of salt, yet shocked by how he beaten the incumbent governor and blame the MI voter.
Best response so far.
Adding to it:
2018 was a midterm on the watch of Republican incumbent U.S. president Donald Trump. The Democrats won the overall gains. For U.S. Senate, John James shifted Michigan away from Democratic incumbent U.S. senator Debbie Stabenow by 14 points in his and the Republicans’ direction.
2020 was a presidential election in which Republican incumbent Donald Trump became unseated by Democratic challenger Joe Biden. Michigan flipped. John James shifted Michigan away from Democratic incumbent U.S. senator Gary Peters by about 13 points.
Stabenow and Peters underperformed the candidate at the top of ticket—with Stabenow at +6.50 and Democratic gubernatorial pickup winner Gretchen Whitmer at +9.56; Peters at +1.68 and Democratic presidential pickup winner Joe Biden, with his pickup of Michigan, at +2.78.
This suggests John James is personally and electorally very strong. The timing was more favorable for the Democrats. And, yet, he lowered the electoral fortunes of Stabenow and Peters (both of whom were overestimated).
2016, 2018, and 2020 were pickup years in some respect. 2016 was a Republican pickup of the presidency for Donald Trump. 2018 was a Democratic pickup of the U.S. House of Representatives. 2020 was a Democratic pickup of the presidency for Joe Biden. One state which reflected all three was Michigan. It was there for Trump. It met the average of pickups, nationally, for the 2018 U.S. House Democrats (+40 net gains in seats from 21 states with +2 from Michigan). It was there for Biden.
Since 2008, the Democrats have won 3 of 4 presidential-election cycles. Just three states were carried by each presidential-election winner: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. In 2016, Michigan’s popular-vote margin best reflected the national one for U.S. House: R+1.06 vs. R+1.08. In 2018, it came closest on the count once again: D+7.68 vs. D+8.56. Of the 2020 Democratic pickups, at the presidential level, Michigan once again was best: D+1.31 vs. D+2.78.
Whichever party benefits—with overall gains—in the midterm elections of 2022 is likely to see that reflected, to some extent, in Michigan.
From 1914 to 2018, a period of 104 years and 27 election cycles, the midterms were won with overall net gains by the White House opposition party in 24. If the midterm elections of 2022 continue with that pattern, the party which will benefit are the Republicans.
This doesn’t just affect U.S. House and U.S. Senate. It also applies to U.S. Governors. There are 36 states scheduled. From that number, 9 of them are Top 10 populous states. The one not on the schedule is North Carolina (which holds its gubernatorial elections with presidential elections).
Effective with the 2018 midterm elections, and with the one in 2020 North Carolina (a party hold from 2016), the Democrats hold the governorships in 6 of the nation’s Top 10 populous states: California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, North Carolina, and Michigan. If the 2022 midterm elections result in overall net gains for the Republicans, and this includes increasing their already-established majority of the nation’s governorships, does anyone think the 2022 Republicans would not flip any of the Top 10 states not in their column and still end up with a minority 4 of the nation’s Top 10? (Or maybe even less?) To win over a new majority—with an outcome of at least 6 of the Top 10—would more than likely include Michigan.
