If Obama is re-elected in 2012, does he break 365 EVs?

[DS0816]

1912 saw the GOP implode with its two recent incumbents, one of whom switched to Progressive and took solely from the incumbent the likes of California, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (the latter three having voted for all prevailing GOPs beginning in 1860 and all the way to Dwight Eisenhower in 1956). It left William Howard Taft with the biggest electoral defeat of a sitting president (holding only Utah and Vermont, the latter having supported the party in every election from 1856 to 1988 with exception of 1964). This paved the way for Woodrow Wilson to get a massive 433 (two electors switched to him to make it 435). 1916 saw the GOP regroup, nominate Charles Evans Hughes, and nearly unseat Wilson in a presidential realignment period for the Republican Party.

The 1940 and 1944 Roosevelt examples (all other commanders in chief who won more than one term won two terms) are not good for making a case; if you look at parties that won a third term, after a two-term incumbent (when considering R-vs-D), only 1904 Teddy Roosevelt gained electoral votes (after 1896 and 1900 William McKinley. By the way: 1868 Ulysses S. Grant doesn't count; 1864 Abe Lincoln had a greater percentage of the electoral vote then available).