2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/AZElections/status/1319757788000604160

Pretty pathetic for AZ GOP. Those counties are overwhelmingly Republican

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis finishes at 399,954 total today. Oh so close to my coveted 400k! They will easily hit over 500k total over the next week, setting an all time record for raw total turnout. I think the bigger question is if they can get to 600k by the end of early voting, which would blow the doors off of all expectations. They just need to average just shy of the same 30k a day that they’ve been doing all week, but the slow weekend will probably put pressure on the week days to overcompensate.

Insane turnout. Also, Cameron and Hidalgo both increased from yesterday! 4K and 8k respectively. Both counties at about 75% of total 2016 turnout, and will likely exceed 100% by next week, which was my benchmark for Biden. EDIT: Webb also up slightly compared to yesterday, adding 2.6k and are now at a new record 34k for EV. I am hopeful they can get to at least 50k by the end of EV.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

HAYS County has surpassed 70k and is just 2k shy of TOTAL 2016 turnout.  They’ll pass it today. They need to hit 80k to break the 2018 record, which they’ll do sometime early next week. I’ll be shocked if Hays total turnout this election doesn’t break 100k. I think Biden will net 20k+ out of here.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

HAYS County has surpassed 70k and is just 2k shy of TOTAL 2016 turnout.  They’ll pass it today. They need to hit 80k to break the 2018 record, which they’ll do sometime early next week. I’ll be shocked if Hays total turnout this election doesn’t break 100k. I think Biden will net 20k+ out of here.

Ok, that's done it: dropping $50 on PredictIt for Biden to win Texas.

I bet 2 friends who don’t follow politics at all $100 each on Texas, so I got $200 riding on Biden. These bitches better get out and vote pronto

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I'm gonna laugh so hard if Biden flips Texas & Georgia while Trump wins Florida

Everyone will call it a “fluke”

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Monstro, when pulling the EV numbers,  I’d recommend verifying (unless you already are) the state count with each county. Webb’s ElPaso’s and Harris are undercounted on the state’s website by several thousand each.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1320410525507985408?s=21

No Miami or Broward.

Have you ever looked at an election map?


Are Miami and Broward Dem leaning or GOP leaning?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

5K in under 3 hours in Travis today. They need about 7k to get to 50% turnout today.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis finishes at 10k for the day, putting them at over 425k total. They should break the 2016 on Tuesday, and possibly the 484k 2018 record, too. To hit the latter, they need to average 30k a day. My hope is for Travis to get to 550k by the end of Friday. Ambitious? Certainly. But that would leave room for Travis Dems to get 100k out on Election Day to hit that coveted 75% turnout.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Hidalgo adds 2500 (140k total), Cameron adds 1400 (73k), and Webb adds 1000 (37k). Not too bad considering the dramatic slowdown in other parts of the state as well on Sunday. That puts Hidalgo over 80% of 2016 turnout, Cameron at 79%, and Webb at 65%.

I’d like to push Hidalgo and Cameron to over 100% by the end of Friday, and Webb to 90%.

Before doomers bitch about Webb, consider this is an all time record in EV for them and that 2/3 of votes in 2016 in that county came on Election day

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

27k added in Harris, putting total at ~1,090,000. They only need to average less than 45k a day to hit 2016 turnout, and that will easily happen. Even on the slowest day last week it was over 45k. I’m setting a goal of 1.4 million by end of Friday.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As of 3 pm, 13k have voted today in Travis and 32k in Harris. This doesn’t include mail, which will have big returns since it’s coming in off a weekend. Travis remains on pace to hit around 530k by the end of EV. Harris will be super close to hitting that 1.4 million figure by Friday.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Interesting, I would have thought the Indy vote was more D than that based on Sinema's overall 2% statewide win. I guess this means that that there is more crossover voting by Rs than by Ds in AZ, given the traditional R registration advantage.

Any idea how independents will be voting there?  I'd assume they lean Democrat but you never know.

Based on exit polls, Trump & Sinema won independents by 3%. Trump & McSally also both got 47%

Usual caveats for exit polls. They are just a general baseline.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I was gonna hold off on the TX early vote updates today, since there didn't seem to be much movement. But I don't think it'd hurt.

I'll also be changing up the format as we get into the extra week of early voting. I'll simply be printing the updated totals & turnout, plus how the vote totals compare to the 2016 & 2018 total vote counts.

Day 13 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 25)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)                          1,090,445    44.0%    2016:  83.1%   2018:  90.3%
FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)         245,916    51.0%    2016:  93.8%   2018:  96.3%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)    177,138    47.9%    2016:  86.6%   2018:  93.2%
GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)        111,053    48.6%    2016:  90.4%   2018:  97.7%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)                                601,332    43.0%    2016:  79.2%   2018:  82.6%
TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)                     538,174    44.4%     2016:  80.5%   2018:  85.7%
COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)                  355,710    54.8%     2016:  98.4%   2018:  99.9%
DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)                 299,881    53.1%   2016:  100.4%  2018: 101.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)                    510,894    43.0%    2016:  86.6%   2018:  93.0%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)                               427,071    49.9%     2016:  91.1%   2018:  88.2%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)       205,234    54.5%    2016: 101.1%    2018:  98.6%
HAYS COUNTY (Austin suburbs)                      74,808    49.0%    2016: 103.7%    2018:  93.8%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)                        168,447    34.5%     2016:  78.7%    2018:  82.7%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)         140,499    35.9%     2016:  81.0%    2018:  92.6%
NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)                   85,674    40.5%     2016:  82.1%    2018:  91.1%
CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)          72,846    33.3%     2016:  79.1%    2018:  93.5

The Austin metro raw number turnout increase is going to be f#cking insane, and that is not good news at all for Trump (or Nate Cohn’s polling reputation).

Also, Harris at 45k on day without mail counts included and two hours to go! They just need about 62k a day to hit 1.4 million before Election Day!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This may not e a realignment year completely, but it’s certainly a realignment for Texas. The voter turnout increase is stunning. Gonna be a whole new state.

Yup, the raw increases we're going to see (and are already seeing) in Democratic base counties PLUS Dem-trending counties is just going to be way too heavy for Trump and Republicans to keep up. Travis is likely to finish around 530k BEFORE Election Day (a 45k+ improvement on the 2018 record). Harris will be flirting with 1.4 million and most of those new voters will be blue. Hays will skyrocket to around 100k before Election Day as well, with most new voters being blue. The only real difference they can make with increasing raw turnout is in places like Comal, Guadalupe, Montgomery, Galveston, and Brazoria, and even those places are lightly trending blue.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

At this point it's not if early voting in Texas exceeds total 2016 turnout, it's by how much.

Sometime on Saturday, I'm going to make a post about how the final EV votes would translate to a statewide result if you used the 2018 Senate percents in each county. Then I'll try and extrapolate the number of new voters in each county by applying *trends* to the new voters, utilizing the shift between 2016-2018. For example, in such an analysis, the new voters in previously red places like Collin and Denton would be overwhelmingly Dem.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Day 14 of early voting in Texas (October 26)

(In-person + VBM)  (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)

GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY               1,149,047    46.3%    2016:   87.6%    2018:   95.1%
FORT BEND COUNTY            262,281    54.4%   2016: 100.1%   2018: 102.7%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY       189,261    51.1%    2016:   92.5%    2018:   99.6%
GALVESTON COUNTY           116,275    50.9%    2016:   94.6%   2018: 102.3%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                  632,961    45.3%    2016:    83.4%   2018:     87.0%
TARRANT COUNTY               572,833    47.2%     2016:   85.7%   2018:     91.2%
COLLIN COUNTY                  372,403    57.4%    2016: 103.0%   2018: 104.6%
DENTON COUNTY                314,069     55.6%    2016:  105.2%   2018:   106.2%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   542,660     45.6%    2016:   92.0%   2018:    98.7%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                  448,419     52.4%    2016:   95.7%   2018:   92.6%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY        215,460     57.2%    2016: 106.1%   2018: 103.5%
HAYS COUNTY                       78,953     51.7%    2016: 109.4%   2018:    99.0%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                178,004     36.4%    2016:   83.2%    2018:   87.4%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              147,866     37.8%    2016:   85.3%    2018:   97.4%
NUECES COUNTY                  90,253     42.6%    2016:   86.5%    2018:   96.0%
CAMERON COUNTY               76,595     35.0%    2016:   83.2%    2018:   98.3%

To add to this, Webb County (Laredo) finally posted, and they added 2.5k yesterday! That’s exactly what they need to do every day to hit my goal of 50k for them by Friday. They sit at 40k now, and they only cast 49k in all 2018 and 57k in 2016.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bernie Sanders is phone banking with Jessica Cisneros for South Texas voters tomorrow, mainly in Webb County (which needs the help the most)!

Dems smell the blood in the water!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis County passes 2016 turnout!

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct27.pdf

They will pass the 2018 record tomorrow

#believethoseTRENDS

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Derek Ryan's turnout report for TX through Monday (so no votes from today in): https://mcusercontent.com/d3064a2fadaf6089dc58a8393/files/9411ad67-cc0e-4028-b4c6-5472ef16256a/Statewide_Report_Day_14.pdf

Last Voted in R Primary - 30.6% (-0.3 from yesterday)
Last Voted in D Primary - 26.6% (-0.6)
GE history/no primary history - 28.1% (+0.4)
No voting history - 14.9% (+0.6)

I’m one of those “no voting history” voters!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Texas gurus.  Even if Biden doesn't win Texas does anyone have an idea what this massive turnout means for down ballot races like US House and Texas House?

Are any Republicans toast or at least in danger if Biden does get up to 48 or 49% of the vote?

Theres a good chance the House flips even without a statewide win.  All the targeted districts are ones Biden will likely overperform in.

That would be massive for redistricting.  What about Congressional seats.  Any in danger for Republicans?

Only like 10, give or take. 2, 3, 6, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 31

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis County tweets that 486k have been cast as of noon! That beast the all time record set in 2018!

We’re about to turn this bitch blue next week! We still got 2.5 days of EV plus ELECTION DAY!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Day 15 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 27) (Bolded means they crossed 100% totals yesterday)


GREATER HOUSTON
HARRIS COUNTY               1206519    48.6%    2016:   92.0%    2018:  99.9%
FORT BEND COUNTY           277124    57.5%    2016: 105.8%   2018: 108.5%
MONTGOMERY COUNTY      200542    54.2%    2016:   98.0%  2018: 105.5%
GALVESTON COUNTY          119796    52.4%    2016:   97.5%   2018: 105.4%

DALLAS-FORT WORTH
DALLAS COUNTY                 665065    47.6%     2016:  87.6%   2018:   91.4%
TARRANT COUNTY              606757    50.0%     2016:  90.8%   2018:   96.6%
COLLIN COUNTY                 388175    59.8%    2016: 107.4%   2018: 109.1%
DENTON COUNTY                327585    58.0%    2016: 109.7%   2018: 110.7%

SAN ANTONIO
BEXAR COUNTY                   570145    47.9%    2016:  96.7%  2018:  103.7%

GREATER AUSTIN
TRAVIS COUNTY                  470535   55.0%  2016: 100.4%   2018:    97.2%
WILLIAMSON COUNTY        224772   59.6%   2016: 110.7%   2018:   108.0%
HAYS COUNTY                       82538   54.0%   2016: 114.4%   2018:  103.5%

EL PASO
EL PASO COUNTY                183813    37.6%  2016:   85.9%    2018:    90.3%

SOUTH TEXAS
HIDALGO COUNTY              155727    39.8%   2016:  89.8%    2018: 102.6%
NUECES COUNTY                  94768    44.8%   2016:  90.8%    2018: 100.8%
CAMERON COUNTY              80368     36.7%   2016:  87.3%    2018: 103.2%

Inject this sh**t in my veins!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/TravisCoClerk/status/1321558271468228616?s=20
As of an hour ago, Travis County reached 100% of their 2018 vote totals

Yeah I was kind of confused about that. Does that mean someone messed up the math when they posted their 486k tweet a few hours ago? Or are they not counting mail ballots in this latest tweet? Either way, Travis will easily set a new record today.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis and Harris are still open for another 30 mins, but I have good news from South Texas! 3.2k votes in Webb County today which is a huge spike since the past week, putting them at 45k (only 4K short of the total 2018 vote!). Hidalgo County posts well over 7k today, putting them at 163,399 total! There is an outside shot of them hitting 2016’s record 174k tomorrow, but even if they don’t, they will easily surpass it on Friday!

Dems are doing what they need to in their base counties.