2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Webb County (Laredo) has finally reached 50% of the 2016 vote. They are currently at 28.5k and should pass 30k after today. My personal goal for that county is to get at least 65k total this election, ideally 70k

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Amazing post. Now, the important question: who will win Kenedy County (a strongly neoliberal rural Romney-Clinton-Cruz county )?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@ImpartialSpectator: thanks! That’s about what I expected. The only thing that’s giving me concern about Biden’s chances is the south Texas turnout, but even then, they are still turning out in record numbers compared to years past in EV, even in Webb County which is notoriously bad.

Also, I do care about how Kenedy County votes, insomuch as how it aesthetically appears on the map! Haha

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The turnout in Texas seems crazy,  two thirds of 2016 turnout this early on is unreal.

I don't think anyone really knows what will happen in Texas,  have we ever seen anything like this?

No, no we haven’t. Apparently ForumLurker knows what will happen though!

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County has surpassed 900k and will probably hit 1 million by the end of the weekend.

Travis is at 19k for the day, meaning (not counting for the rest of the day) they only need to average 20k a day through the end of early voting to hit 500k. Total turnout in 2016 was 469k and 484k in 2018. Phenomenal news for Biden, especially if we can get another 100k+ voters out in Travis on Election Day.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Montstro, I love your contributions, I don’t care what ForumLurker says

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Seems important.

https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1319328824769859585

Holy sh**t, turnout is going to be insane

Most definitely includes requests, too. No way 100 mil voted by mail

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Cameron posts 3k, officially cresting the period 2016 EV record

Hidalgo posts 7k, and I am 99% sure that pushes them past their EV record, but can’t find a definitive source.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Let’s hope that the weekend bump culminates, but the GOP is currently over performing in Florida. Let’s not ignore that.

I for one, am saddened and unsurprised by the re-election of idiocrat, Donald J Trump.
I won’t comment on here anymore since it’s clear the Atlas bubble effect is really strong and nothing will change your mind.
I guess watching the complete shock of everyone here when the f**ker gets re-elected will be a bit of entertainment in the otherwise horrible night that is coming.

Bye, Felicia

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis closes the day at 29k (including mail), with 370k total. Only 99k until they beat 2016 total turnout and 116k to beat 2018 turnout. I’d be shocked if they didn’t break that by next Friday.

For reference, O’Roruke netted 240k out of Travis in 2018. My benchmark for a Biden win in Texas is him netting about 300k out of Travis.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Could TX and MT surpass 2016 total turnout just from early/mail votes?

I think it's a given that all the major growing urban counties in Texas will surpass 100% of 2016 final vote tallies before next Friday. Travis County will be flirting with hitting 400k today alone (total in 2016 was 469k and 2018 was 484k). Harris will likely surpass 1.3 million late next week, along with Dallas and Bexar, to say nothing of the major suburban counties like Williamson, Denton, and Collin, who will probably pass it this weekend.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The California #s are truly insane.

Partisanship of first 5 million ballots returned
2016: Dem 46, Rep 32, Other 22 (Dem +14)
2018: Dem 45, Rep 31, Other 24 (Dem +14)
2020: Dem 56, Rep 21, Other 23 (Dem +35)

https://capitolweekly.net/ca120-a-historic-flood-of-over-5-million-mail-in-ballots/#disqus_thread

Also of note in places like CA-25, for instance: 30% of Dems have returned ballots already. Only 19% of Reps have.

https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/2020GeneralBaseAVTrackerforVIZBOT/2020GeneralElectionTrackerVIZBOT?Geography%20Selection=Congressional%20District&Geography%20Selection%20Filter=CD%2025%20-%2025TH%20CONGRESSIONAL%20DISTRICT&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

Garcia is toast. His victory came largely because of Republicans outnumbering Dems in the special, and that will be nowhere near the case this time around.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County's morning pace is up noticeably compared to prior mornings this week. At 10k already at 9:15 am. They will most definitely cross the 1 million mark today.

Positive sign that turnout is picking back up post debate? A good day for Biden if Harris can pass a million and Travis hit 400k today.

Also, the state's Webb County totals are wrong for yesterday. They said only 491 voted there yesterday, which would be beyond abysmal, but the county actually has 2,428, putting the county-wide number at 31.5k, tied for the 2018 all-time EV record. They will break the record today. My hope is for Webb to get at least 45k in EV by next Friday, and ideally 50k.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

People could've just been like me from the get-go (rational; normal) and banked on Florida being a Trump/GOP state regardless - just like it was in 2018 for Desatan and Voldemort in a Democratic wave - and not lose their collective s[inks]t over one Safe GOP state potentially voting for the GOP, thinking it somehow is the ballgame for the Presidency.

If your name isn't Barack Obama or Nikki Fried, your chances of winning FL are well under that of a coinflip. Deal with it, etc.

Yeah, I think the positive mindset for Democrats to approach Florida is to always just assume the Republican will win, and be pleasantly surprised if a Democrat does pull it out. Life is just better that way that stressing about it.

Texas is much more interesting.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As of 3 pm, 19k have voted in Travis, leaving it about 11k shy of hitting my personal 400k total goal by the end of the day. Four more hours!

Weather caused some sites in Harris to close temporarily, but they should still be on track to hit a million by end of day.

Dems are doing what they need to in their base areas.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As of 3 pm, 19k have voted in Travis, leaving it about 11k shy of hitting my personal 400k total goal by the end of the day. Four more hours!

Weather caused some sites in Harris to close temporarily, but they should still be on track to hit a million by end of day.

Dems are doing what they need to in their base areas.

Are your goals benchmarks for a Biden win or something else?

Just my EV goals. I made another thread elsewhere about my actual benchmarks for a Biden win, such as him netting 300k+ in each of Harris and Travis and increasing RGV turnout beyond 2016, as well as expanding on the O’Rourke map in suburbia. All signs point to these things happening.

And it looks like Harris has hit that million mark! Anyway, my goals for Travis are to be at 500k by the end of EV next Friday and for Harris to surpass 1.3 million. That would put both blue counties at above 100% of total 2016 turnout before Election Day votes even come in.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2020:   181,241     48.1%  (89.3% of 2016 turnout)

 

With just today's in-person vote, they're currently at 50% turnout and 93% of 2016's vote share.

And they still got 2.5 hours of voting!

In b4 OSR or ForumLurker says this is good for Trump because he won it in 2016.