2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Travis County

Early Voting Location Voters: 35,873
Mail Ballots Received: 22,577
Total: 58467
 % of Registered Voters (855,175): 6.84%

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct13.pdf

This is ~26% higher than 2016.

He’ll, Biden will likely even net 300k out of Travis too (was Beto +240k)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Collin County with nearly 40k day 1 early votes. 31k in 2016.

Denton County with 35.9k compared to 16.9k in 2016.

Williamson County 22.7k vs 18.1k 2016

No figures out of Fort Bend but it’s very clear....

The suburbs are coming

Over 10% of 2016/18 turnout in Harris and all these suburbs on Day 1

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

So the early Dallas/Texas numbers are good?

I would say so, yes. But we'll see if 2020 continues to outpace 2016/18 and it wasn't just a case of highly motivated Dems voting on Day 1 and the rest of the weeks fizzling out.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Those Cameron County numbers are phenomenal. What do you have for Webb County vs 2016/18?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Hays County is super high at 14,014 for day 1

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1316525375246102528

If it hits 1.7 million, Trump is f’d. There’s no way he can maintain 40% in Harris with 400k new votes that are overwhelmingly Dem coming in. My earlier prediction of 60-39 Biden here might be a low ball.

For reference, Trump got 40k votes LESS than Romney did. If you want to be generous and assume Trump increases his vote total from 546k to 600k, then that’s still only a mere 35% of the county’s vote, and would be about a 500k vote deficit in Harris. To be clear, I AM NOT predicting Biden winning Harris by 500k. I think a 300k margin out of there would put him on track for at least 50-50 odds statewide. 500k would seal the deal.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris was 15% of TX votes in 2016 and Clinton lost by 800k votes; adding 135k in the margin for Dems would only close the 2016 margin by 17%, which is almost proportionate with its statewide vote share in that contest. You'd either need comparable improvements in virtually every county or even larger improvements in other urban counties to offset potential losses elsewhere.

Of course, using the 2018 Beto baseline would mean such an improvement in Harris alone would close the margin by over 60% sans any GOP swings elsewhere.

I’m using the 2018 baseline for the big counties as I don’t see any realistic way Trump does better than Cruz in DFW, Houston, Austin or San Antonio metros. Biden winning Harris County at a fairly conservative 60-39 clip when you factor in that surge of votes nets him over 350k out of Harris, compared to O’Rourke’s 200k.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What margin does Biden have to win Harris County by that he'd likely win the state?

Anything over 300k and I think he’s sitting pretty.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How is turnout in the Rio Grande Valley looking? If I were the Biden campaign, I might invest in trying to juice up mail-in turnout in counties like El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron as well. It seems like they punch way below their weight given their populations.

Turnout has been very good in El Paso and Cameron, but only slightly outpacing 2016/18 in Hidalgo and Webb. Good on the whole, though. El Paso cast over 15% of 2016/2018 votes yesterday, for example.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Monstro: are you still doing the major county updates? Those were outstanding. Also, how is rural turnout compared to 2016, is it about even or is it significantly up?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Dem precincts heavily outvoting R ones in Harris County

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   118,698     10.1%
2016:   185,761     14.4%
2018:   179,875     13.5%
2020:   213,606     15.3%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   118,027     12.1%
2016:   154,192     14.3%
2018:   142,494     12.7%
2020:   174,568     14.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   106,548     11.6%
2016:   137,669     13.2%
2018:   118,709     10.8%
2020:   165,479     13.9%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    56,220      8.9%
2016:   121,897     16.8%
2018:   115,123     14.8%
2020:   140,588     16.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    56,646     12.3%
2016:    96,899     18.1%
2018:    97,324     16.8%
2020:   122,038     18.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    43,336     11.2%
2016:    63,166     13.6%
2018:    64,273     12.9%
2020:   117,894     20.9%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    28,003      7.3%
2016:    51,317     12.0%
2018:    54,015     11.9%
2020:    70,577     14.5%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    34,783     11.4%
2016:    53,752     15.9%
2018:    44,982     12.4%
2020:    58,986     15.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:    30,465     12.0%
2016:    57,576     19.2%
2018:    60,676     18.3%
2020:    80,335     21.3%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    35,607     13.4%
2016:    45,941     14.7%
2018:    44,556     13.4%
2020:    47,899     12.9%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    26,404     14.2%
2016:    35,782     17.2%
2018:    34,153     16.1%
2020:    53,036     23.3%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    13,429      7.4%
2016:    21,831     11.0%
2018:    21,563     10.4%
2020:    32,696     14.9%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    17,554      9.1%
2016:    23,766     11.9%
2018:    26,381     12.9%
2020:    36,579     17.3%

Very promising numbers all around. The number that I’m curious about is Galveston and what’s causing the marked surge in voting there compared to Montgomery County, a heavily Republican County where the vote is flat.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

+1 for Biden that wasn’t there for Beto or Clinton bitches

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris County is an absolute juggernaut

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1317239801909751810?s=20

Anyone have an idea how the Harris vote is likely to split this year?  I'm assuming it will trend Biden at least a little bit....

Trump got over 40k votes less than Romney while Clinton added 100k to Obama’s. Take a guess how it will trend this year

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

1.3mil voted in harris county so getting 400k in 4 days isn't surprising - it'll start to slow down

There's uh....3 weeks of early voting this year unlike 2 in the past, so it's pretty surprising lol. Also Harris County has 7 am to 10 pm ev the final 3 days of ev in 2 weeks and one day of 24 hour voting at 3 sites on oct 29th

uh... so there won't be 400k in 4 days for every week lol it's just people enthuastic to vote people do this each election with the more people voting but it's the same result

Harris will be at least at 50% of its 2016 vote by the end of the weekend with a whole two weeks left of early voting. That is big.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Almost all of those counties are at 1/3 of 2016 turnout including the border counties and the wealthy suburbs. Of course many have grown hugely since then. Montgomery is the outlier. Galveston is an outlier in the other direction as another GOP county, though, so we can’t conclude anything.

The big thing to me standing out is the fact that the RGV is pulling it’s weight and matching the statewide rates. Very good sign that at the very least, turnout there will top 2016. It will matter in a race where the statewide result could be <50k

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m very pleased with turnout in Hidalgo, Cameron, and El Paso, and that is very promising for Biden statewide. The only counties that concern me in terms of turning out Dems along the border are Webb (Laredo) and the rural super Dem environs around. The South Texas rurals don’t have a whole lot of raw votes, but it would still be nice if they were on pace to break 2016 turnout

I am assuming that Fort Bend is an anomaly caused by some incompetence at the clerk’s office, because demographically similar counties have high turnout.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

@Adam Griffin: what was the official white-black percentage of the electorate in GA in 2016/18 (not exit polls)?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Is this more Target Smart crap?

Maybe, but also Biden kinda did triage the state basically

Lol, keep grasping. There’s no way to gauge this unless they go through the primary vote history, which coincidentally, a Republican operative has done, and the picture is anything but good for R’s

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/bishop_gains/status/1317496023078510592

Mods please delete this as it is entirely misleading and outright false. OSR mindlessly posted something that is blatantly false and has no basis in reality. The person who posted this tweet is a Trump cultist who has no credibility and no sources on any of this.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Day 4 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 16

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   252,752     12.6%
2016:   366,483     16.4%
2018:   304,889     13.0%
2020:   511,675     20.6%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   151,141     12.8%
2016:   232,807     18.1%
2018:   222,957     16.7%
2020:   275,607     19.7%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   147,251     15.1%
2016:   195,816     18.2%
2018:   178,814     15.9%
2020:   227,291     18.8%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   138,203     15.1%
2016:   177,661     17.0%
2018:   153,135     13.9%
2020:   209,439     17.6%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    74,805     11.8%
2016:   157,571     21.7%
2018:   147,325     19.0%
2020:   186,280     21.8%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     72,485     15.8%
2016:   122,582     22.8%
2018:   119,114     20.5%
2020:   162,458     25.0%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     56,044     14.5%
2016:     83,286     17.9%
2018:     82,914     16.7%
2020:   152,423     27.0%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    36,427      9.5%
2016:    66,657     15.6%
2018:    66,887     14.7%
2020:    87,695     18.0%

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    58,227     17.1%
2016:    80,321     19.9%
2018:    78,519     18.2%
2020:    92,097     19.1%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    43,236     14.2%
2016:    65,635     19.4%
2018:    54,427     15.1%
2020:    73,101     18.7%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     39,058     15.4%
2016:     72,714     24.2%
2018:     74,933     22.5%
2020:   104,281     27.7%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    45,490     17.2%
2016:    58,615     18.8%
2018:    55,500     16.6%
2020:    63,334     17.1%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    33,085     17.9%
2016:    44,950     21.6%
2018:    41,145     19.4%
2020:    66,554     29.1%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    17,183      9.5%
2016:    27,678     14.0%
2018:    26,046     12.6%
2020:    40,214     18.4%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    22,403     11.7%
2016:    30,272     15.2%
2018:    31,625     15.4%
2020:    46,341     21.9%

I'm finding these numbers difficult to parse. Why is Austin staying even with 2016 while the Dallas suburbs are exploding?

I have no explanation for Collin and Denton, but I can pretty much guarantee you that the new voters there aren’t friendly to Trump/Cornyn. Travis is a perpetually high turnout County no matter what, so that’s to be expected.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Forgetting the party registration the age numbers so far indicates good news for the GOP in Texas while the gender numbers indicates good news for the Dems .


The age numbers I would say are better news for the GOP than the gender numbers are for the Dems

Delusion

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bear in mind that Beto won native-born Texans by 3, while Ted carried transplants by 15. Some of the people moving into Texas from out of state liberals, but a lot of them are looking for a place with lower taxes. It could be a wash, I'm not going to try and predict either way what the high early turnout could mean.

That exit poll stat is almost definitely junk when you compare the trends map with transplants maps

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Over 21k in Bexar County today and over 2k in Cameron County, both per their county clerk websites. Both records for Sundays.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Hidalgo County also had over 4k. This places them over the 50% mark of the 2016 total