Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

That sample voted Clinton +1.6, so it's probably too D-friendly.

Still, it's not a *good* poll for Trump, by any means...

True but the electorate is likely to skew a little more D in 2020 than 2016 was in Georgia since the age gap there is probably the biggest of any state, and four years of turnover would naturally favor Democrats. And more people moving to Atlanta. Still, probably unlikely to be a Clinton +2 sample, but something like Trump +1 or 2 in 2016 would be reasonable

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

FWIW, I love Cory Booker's new algorithm 

He’s the Atlas version of “What will it be Wednesday”

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I wonder if the reality of how badly this was managed at the start sets in when Americans start losing all sources of income and start getting evicted, starving, and people they know start dying after it was all brushed off as “just like the flu” for the greater part of two months.

Then again, Americans have pretty short memories.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

No General Election numbers in Georgia

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Gallup's polling isnt reliable. Trump and his gaffes has made his election prospects dim

None of the polls are reliable for you when they don’t report what you want to see.

So you think that Biden +1 in Texas or Biden +5 in NC poll is relabile then?

I do (see username)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trump's steady rise in the polls continues.

Economist/YouGov 47 (46)
CNN 46 (44)
TheHill 51 (50)
Reuters 45 (43)

Reuters/Ipsos has Trump at 41. YouGov had his net approval higher last week. CNN's is basically the same as it was last time around. Hill is junk.

That doesn't fit the narrative Beet wants to push

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

CBS Biden leads Trump 47-43, conducted over the last few days, down to 4. HAHAHAHAHAHA

I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone be delighted that the best poll for their preferred candidate still showed that candidate trailing by 4 points

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Civiqs tracker, 6/5

Trump job approval: 40/57 (-17)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 40/57 (-17)
Colorado: 36/61 (-25)
Florida: 45/52 (-7)
Georgia: 44/53 (-9)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 49/48 (+1)
Michigan: 41/56 (-15)
Minnesota: 37/60 (-23)
Nevada: 37/60 (-23)
New Hampshire: 37/59 (-22)
New Mexico: 44/53 (-9)
North Carolina: 43/54 (-11)
Ohio: 45/53 (-8)
Pennsylvania: 42/54 (-12)
Texas: 47/50 (-3)
Virginia: 39/58 (-19)
Wisconsin: 43/54 (-11)

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

Forget Texas and Georgia, watchout dark horse Alaska

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I just consider everyone who claims to neither approve or disapprove as a lost cause. If they can’t make up their minds at this point, they are definitely with Trump but too embarrassed to admit it

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

UT-Tyler: Trump at 44-50 in Texas for general approval. 41-51 on COVID. Sample has Biden +5

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trump's approval is higher than 41 '92 and Carter '80, but lower than Clinton, Bush or Obama.

All of them got roughly their net approval ratings in terms of NPV. HW and Carter did better because there was a third party alternative.

Looking at 538, both W and Obama got 1.04 times their approval in PV and on average their opponents got 1.03 times their dissaproval. That would get Trump about 44.8% two party PV and Biden 55.2%.

Interesting. 44% is my guess of what Trump's final share ends up as. The more interesting question is what Biden's share will be? Does he get 50-52 with a relatively high share of third party voters? Or does he consolidate those third partiers and get up to 54 or 55?