Bevin vs Beshear in each Southern State

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Today I learned Texas is to the right of Kentucky.

Also I bet if you simulated the election in South Carolina with the same dynamics that the Democrat would probably also win there, but that’s debatable. Jim Smith came within 8% against a non-controversial incumbent just last year.

And wth with Virginia being only +11.5. Ed Gillespie got whooped by 9, so to suggest a candidate as laughably bad as Bevin would only do 2.5% worse is ludicrous

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Beshear would definitely have won in Texas. By like 1-2ish.

I also see a +15 Beshear victory in VA and +5 win in FL

I see Texas’s Bevin equivalent as Dan Patrick . I don’t see Beshear winning by 15 in VA that’s nearly as bad of a performance as Stewart .

This is absurd. That’s like saying Kris Kobach’s 18% win in a downballot race before he ran for Governor makes KS-Gov Likely/Safe R. Most people aren’t/weren’t aware of how insane Paxton and Patrick are. They would have definitely lost as the gubernatorial nominee against a Democrat of Beshear’s quality (and yes, hypothetical TX Democratic Beshear would have won Collin and Denton Counties, probably handily too). The problem is not many such Democrats exist of Beshear’s quality in Texas (yet). Maybe one or two have the potential.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Yes states do have different dynamics but the premise of this thread is if you rerun the Beshear vs. Bevin race throughout the south. And Bevin would have lost in Texas against a Beshear clone, probably by a decent margin. At the end of the day, Beshear win was powered by strong showings in the cities and suburbs (and a last hurrah for coal Democrats). Guess where 85% of Texans live? In big cities and suburbs. It wasn’t just unions that made him hated. He was just a dick to everyone for no reason (remind you of someone?).

I have a feeling you’re just purposely deluding yourself because deep down you know Bevin would lose Texas, but you just can’t come to terms with the idea of Texas voting for a Democrat.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

My map

Mine would be this, but I think LA could go either way.