Rank the Southern States from easiest to hardest to win for Democrats

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

VA
NC
—
GA
FL
—
Combination of Strong Dem/flawed Republican = win
TX—this one can easily shift up a category or two with a decade or two, but not there yet. At least for midterm electorates. A Ken Paxton vs. Collin Allred race would be close
SC—more than the states in the category below, SC has enough urban and suburban areas to propel a Democrat to victory if the conditions are right.
LA—this one could easily fall into the category below, particularly if JBE loses
—
Dead Girl/Live Boy (never say never, but only under extreme circumstances going forward, like Roy Moore)
KY—happy to be wrong about Beshear winning, but this seems very much like a swan song for the KYDP. There’s no real bench left after Beshear, and no one else is going to have his family name and deep statewide ties.
MS—if Hood couldn’t get within 5, we’re gonna be locked out of here for a long time.
WV—see KY. Manchin’s victory last year seems like a swan song as well.
AR
TN
AL

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is there any evidence that Mississippi’s demographics are going to get significantly more favorable for Democrats over time? It seems like the black counties are losing the most population.

I’d sooner bet on a Democrat winning a South Carolina gubernatorial race going forward before any of MS-LA-AR-TN-AL. The urban and suburban areas of SC have shown they are definitely amenable to voting for Democrats under the right circumstances, and there’s less of a hump to clear in that state compared to say, Mississippi.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

There is next to nothing the GOP can do to “adapt to the Texas trends” unless they totally revamp the way the national party is heading. You can’t isolate one from the other (ask the CA GOP or the AR Dems). George P. Bush isn’t some magical bullet for that just because he’s half Hispanic. And there’s no guarantee he’d beat Paxton or Patrick in a primary anyway

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Is there any evidence that Mississippi’s demographics are going to get significantly more favorable for Democrats over time? It seems like the black counties are losing the most population.

I’d sooner bet on a Democrat winning a South Carolina gubernatorial race going forward before any of MS-LA-AR-TN-AL. The urban and suburban areas of SC have shown they are definitely amenable to voting for Democrats under the right circumstances, and there’s less of a hump to clear in that state compared to say, Mississippi.

Not happening.Older whites are moving to SC in droves and the white population is actually increasing. There's no hope for dems in SC.  Mississippi's black population is slowly increasing and I think it will eventually be competitive especially if republicans lose Madison and Lafayette. The only reason they win MS is because whites are 90% R. Obviously it will not happen anytime soon but there's a possibility.

The difference is SC is much more urban/suburban than Mississippi is (and that’s pretty much what matters most along with education in predicting where Dems have openings), and Democrats start with a decently higher floor in SC.

This is of course not to suggest that SC is in any real way favorable to Democrats or trending in their direction. But it’s not too hard to imagine a highly unpopular Republican Governor/candidate being toppled by a suburban coalition from a decent Democratic challenger