2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

RRH has fully careened off the cliff in analysis:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/10/03/rrh-elections-early-october-2020-house-ratings/

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

RRH has fully careened off the cliff in analysis:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/10/03/rrh-elections-early-october-2020-house-ratings/

You can quibble with some of the individual ratings, but I think the overall outlook is quite reasonable and they've correctly identified the Dem-held seats most likely to flip.

CA-21 and FL-26 are not among the most likely seats to flip R, especially with Biden winning them by double digits

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

RRH has fully careened off the cliff in analysis:

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/10/03/rrh-elections-early-october-2020-house-ratings/

You can quibble with some of the individual ratings, but I think the overall outlook is quite reasonable and they've correctly identified the Dem-held seats most likely to flip.

CA-21 and FL-26 are not among the most likely seats to flip R, especially with Biden winning them by double digits

Hmm. After being skeptical early this year I am now pretty convinced that Trump is seeing real improvement with Hispanic voters, especially in S Florida. I'm personally more bearish than most on CA-21/FL-26/FL-27/TX-23 for that reason so I would disagree with you there but it's really something we can't know until the results are in. I believe Nate Cohn from the NYT had a twitter thread about how undecided Hispanics broke late in 2018 towards the Democrats and messed up some of his polling, I could definitely see that happen again.

That sounds like Nate Cohn making excuses. TX-23 was never a double digit race in Hurd’s favor in 2018. The polling was just sh**t

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Finello is going to be dragged across the finish line by a double digit Biden win I think. She needs to prove herself with her fundraising this quarter though

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSeidman/status/1313527856195084288
Now this is embarrassing

Also, wow

https://twitter.com/IanFergusonOH/status/1313526393771298818

That's not disappointing at all? If anything, I'm pleasantly surprised. I was thinking Finello would do like $600K or something. Fitzpatrick has no excuse not to raise more $$$ and he's being outraised by somebody that his own pollsters say like 70% of the district doesn't even know about. Considering Finello has had to really bring her awareness up, nearly $1M is actually pretty damn great for her. Confirms for me that those Fitzpatrick +15 polls are obvious outliers.

I also expected Stephanie Bice to raise more than $1.5M. Maybe my expectations are too high.

I think your expectations are too high. I think anything north of about $700k in a quarter is still impressive.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If they move to NC to Lean R I’ll be amused

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

That lady is a basket case, but she is right that people are underestimating just how bad Texas can be in the House for Republicans

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

And I'll say again, these people have learned nothing. Even selzer was five points off in 2018
NC should be lean D at this point too by that logic. And unlike Ernst, Tillis hasn't gotten 50 in a single poll

LOL. Even if Ernst wins, I feel like people still won't let go of Iowa being out of reach for Dems in high-level races until a few more losses at a minimum.

We should take the hint that if Biden and Greenfield can't win the state this year of all years, it's not coming back.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Could anyone please write out the list of changes? I can't see tweets on my work computer.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1318890789343285254

Full list of changes

Will be interesting to see if any Lean R seats actually flip.

PA-01, TX-03, and TX-10 seem like the likeliest in that category. TX-02 and TX-31 in the "Likely R" category (nonsensical ratings since Biden is no worse than 50-50 to win those seats

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How long did they keep FL-26 a toss up? One month?

was thinking the same thing. seemed very overreactive

They always got to find one or two races to move to the other party so that they can claim to be non-partisan

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

The sheer lack of defense they're putting into Texas seats like 2, 3, 6, 25, and 31 is just stunning. It's hubris. They must really think 2018 was some fluke, which is straight delusional when the places that caused those massive swings are already logging more votes than they did in 2018 (Williamson, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Harris)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

The sheer lack of defense they're putting into Texas seats like 2, 3, 6, 25, and 31 is just stunning. It's hubris. They must really think 2018 was some fluke, which is straight delusional when the places that caused those massive swings are already logging more votes than they did in 2018 (Williamson, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Harris)

Yeah, because it's not like Dan Crenshaw is lacking for money.

Ok, but the other seats? Are they seriously delusional enough to think Williamson County's 2018 result was a fluke? That seat is flying so under the radar it's not even funny.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Waste of money. I won't shed a tear when Cheri Bustos inevitably loses in 2022

King Mike will probably draw her a comfortably Dem seat with tentacles flying everywhere.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings/230616

Looks like they're as follows:
AR-02 - Lean R to Tossup
NJ-03 - Lean D to Likely D
NJ-05 - Likely D to Safe D
NY-18 - Likely D to Safe D
PA-17 - Lean D to Likely D
TX-10 - Lean R to Tossup
TX-24 - Tossup to Lean D
TX-31 - Likely R to Lean R

(Let's go Fitz!!!)

Guess we just have to wait and see what Sabato says today.

TX-31 is long overdue

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sabato also shoulda stuck to his guns on IA instead of beclowning himself with a switch at the last minute when his prior move was way too premature.