2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Gracile]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

CA-25 was never safe.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov: D+10 on GCB (52-42)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzc8dt85gn/econTabReport.pdf

538 average at D+7.4 right now (49.8-42.4)

final 538 average in 2018 was D+8.7 (50.7-42.0) albeit with many more polls

[Mr.Phips]

YouGov: D+10 on GCB (52-42)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/nzc8dt85gn/econTabReport.pdf

538 average at D+7.4 right now (49.8-42.4)

final 538 average in 2018 was D+8.7 (50.7-42.0) albeit with many more polls

I’m still confident that the National House vote will end up within a point or two of the Presidential race.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

The sheer lack of defense they're putting into Texas seats like 2, 3, 6, 25, and 31 is just stunning. It's hubris. They must really think 2018 was some fluke, which is straight delusional when the places that caused those massive swings are already logging more votes than they did in 2018 (Williamson, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Harris)

[Roll Roons]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

The sheer lack of defense they're putting into Texas seats like 2, 3, 6, 25, and 31 is just stunning. It's hubris. They must really think 2018 was some fluke, which is straight delusional when the places that caused those massive swings are already logging more votes than they did in 2018 (Williamson, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Harris)

Yeah, because it's not like Dan Crenshaw is lacking for money.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

The sheer lack of defense they're putting into Texas seats like 2, 3, 6, 25, and 31 is just stunning. It's hubris. They must really think 2018 was some fluke, which is straight delusional when the places that caused those massive swings are already logging more votes than they did in 2018 (Williamson, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Harris)

Yeah, because it's not like Dan Crenshaw is lacking for money.

Ok, but the other seats? Are they seriously delusional enough to think Williamson County's 2018 result was a fluke? That seat is flying so under the radar it's not even funny.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

The sheer lack of defense they're putting into Texas seats like 2, 3, 6, 25, and 31 is just stunning. It's hubris. They must really think 2018 was some fluke, which is straight delusional when the places that caused those massive swings are already logging more votes than they did in 2018 (Williamson, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Harris)

Yeah, because it's not like Dan Crenshaw is lacking for money.

Ok, but the other seats? Are they seriously delusional enough to think Williamson County's 2018 result was a fluke? That seat is flying so under the radar it's not even funny.

Because you see, John Carter is running against Donna Imam, who's a weak candidate ^tm and ToO fAr To ThE lEfT /s

[OneJ]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

The sheer lack of defense they're putting into Texas seats like 2, 3, 6, 25, and 31 is just stunning. It's hubris. They must really think 2018 was some fluke, which is straight delusional when the places that caused those massive swings are already logging more votes than they did in 2018 (Williamson, Travis, Tarrant, Collin, Harris)

Yeah, because it's not like Dan Crenshaw is lacking for money.

Ok, but the other seats? Are they seriously delusional enough to think Williamson County's 2018 result was a fluke? That seat is flying so under the radar it's not even funny.

Especially since all the Dem candidates, besides Ladjevardian, outraised their opponents in these districts and Biden being really competitive in Texas doesn't help. I'm hoping for maybe a surprise flip or few.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1321539286496432129

[LimoLiberal]

Inside Elections' no Tossup ratings. 29 moves towards Democrats and 1 move towards Republicans.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/28/rating-changes-texas-georgia-election-outlook-continues-to-swing-toward-democrats/

Senate races
Alaska (Dan Sullivan, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Georgia (David Perdue, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Georgia (Kelly Loeffler, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
House races

Arkansas’ 2nd (French Hill, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Colorado’s 3rd (Open; Scott Tipton, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
Georgia’s 6th (Lucy McBath, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Indiana’s 5th (Open; Susan W. Brooks, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Iowa’s 1st (Abby Finkenauer, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Iowa’s 2nd (Open; Dave Loebsack, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Minnesota’s 1st (Jim Hagedorn, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Missouri’s 2nd (Ann Wagner, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Nebraska’s 2nd (Don Bacon, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 2nd (Jeff Van Drew, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 3rd (Andy Kim, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
New Jersey’s 7th (Tom Malinowski, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
North Carolina’s 8th (Richard Hudson, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
North Carolina’s 11th (Vacant; Mark Meadows, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Ohio’s 1st (Steve Chabot, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Pennsylvania’s 17th (Conor Lamb, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
Texas’ 2nd (Daniel Crenshaw, R): from Likely Republican to Solid Republican (off the board)
Texas’ 3rd (Van Taylor, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 10th (Michael; McCaul, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 24th (Open; Kenny Marchant, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Virginia’s 2nd (Elaine Luria, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Virginia's 5th (Open; Denver Riggleman, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Washington’s 3rd (Jaime Herrera Beutler, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Wisconsin’s 3rd (Ron Kind, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Inside Elections' no Tossup ratings. 29 moves towards Democrats and 1 move towards Republicans.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/28/rating-changes-texas-georgia-election-outlook-continues-to-swing-toward-democrats/

Senate races
Alaska (Dan Sullivan, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Georgia (David Perdue, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Georgia (Kelly Loeffler, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
House races

Arkansas’ 2nd (French Hill, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Colorado’s 3rd (Open; Scott Tipton, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
Georgia’s 6th (Lucy McBath, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Indiana’s 5th (Open; Susan W. Brooks, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Iowa’s 1st (Abby Finkenauer, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Iowa’s 2nd (Open; Dave Loebsack, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Minnesota’s 1st (Jim Hagedorn, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Missouri’s 2nd (Ann Wagner, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Nebraska’s 2nd (Don Bacon, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 2nd (Jeff Van Drew, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 3rd (Andy Kim, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
New Jersey’s 7th (Tom Malinowski, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
North Carolina’s 8th (Richard Hudson, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
North Carolina’s 11th (Vacant; Mark Meadows, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Ohio’s 1st (Steve Chabot, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Pennsylvania’s 17th (Conor Lamb, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
Texas’ 2nd (Daniel Crenshaw, R): from Likely Republican to Solid Republican (off the board)
Texas’ 3rd (Van Taylor, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 10th (Michael; McCaul, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 24th (Open; Kenny Marchant, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Virginia’s 2nd (Elaine Luria, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Virginia's 5th (Open; Denver Riggleman, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Washington’s 3rd (Jaime Herrera Beutler, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Wisconsin’s 3rd (Ron Kind, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)

Agree with most of these except TX-02 and MN-01

[Roll Roons]

Inside Elections' no Tossup ratings. 29 moves towards Democrats and 1 move towards Republicans.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/28/rating-changes-texas-georgia-election-outlook-continues-to-swing-toward-democrats/

Senate races
Alaska (Dan Sullivan, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Georgia (David Perdue, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Georgia (Kelly Loeffler, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
House races

Arkansas’ 2nd (French Hill, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Colorado’s 3rd (Open; Scott Tipton, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
Georgia’s 6th (Lucy McBath, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Indiana’s 5th (Open; Susan W. Brooks, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Iowa’s 1st (Abby Finkenauer, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Iowa’s 2nd (Open; Dave Loebsack, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Minnesota’s 1st (Jim Hagedorn, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Missouri’s 2nd (Ann Wagner, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Nebraska’s 2nd (Don Bacon, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 2nd (Jeff Van Drew, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 3rd (Andy Kim, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
New Jersey’s 7th (Tom Malinowski, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
North Carolina’s 8th (Richard Hudson, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
North Carolina’s 11th (Vacant; Mark Meadows, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Ohio’s 1st (Steve Chabot, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Pennsylvania’s 17th (Conor Lamb, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
Texas’ 2nd (Daniel Crenshaw, R): from Likely Republican to Solid Republican (off the board)
Texas’ 3rd (Van Taylor, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 10th (Michael; McCaul, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 24th (Open; Kenny Marchant, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Virginia’s 2nd (Elaine Luria, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Virginia's 5th (Open; Denver Riggleman, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Washington’s 3rd (Jaime Herrera Beutler, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Wisconsin’s 3rd (Ron Kind, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)

They still have a bunch of tossups. Tbh, I think they're being aggressive with several of these.

[wbrocks67]

CNN has the GCB at D+12 (54-42), literally the same as the prez race (54-42). Not many ticket splitters or "check on Biden" voters here.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Inside Elections' no Tossup ratings. 29 moves towards Democrats and 1 move towards Republicans.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/28/rating-changes-texas-georgia-election-outlook-continues-to-swing-toward-democrats/

Senate races
Alaska (Dan Sullivan, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Georgia (David Perdue, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Georgia (Kelly Loeffler, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
House races

Arkansas’ 2nd (French Hill, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Colorado’s 3rd (Open; Scott Tipton, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
Georgia’s 6th (Lucy McBath, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Indiana’s 5th (Open; Susan W. Brooks, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Iowa’s 1st (Abby Finkenauer, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Iowa’s 2nd (Open; Dave Loebsack, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Minnesota’s 1st (Jim Hagedorn, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Missouri’s 2nd (Ann Wagner, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Nebraska’s 2nd (Don Bacon, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 2nd (Jeff Van Drew, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 3rd (Andy Kim, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
New Jersey’s 7th (Tom Malinowski, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
North Carolina’s 8th (Richard Hudson, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
North Carolina’s 11th (Vacant; Mark Meadows, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Ohio’s 1st (Steve Chabot, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Pennsylvania’s 17th (Conor Lamb, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
Texas’ 2nd (Daniel Crenshaw, R): from Likely Republican to Solid Republican (off the board)
Texas’ 3rd (Van Taylor, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 10th (Michael; McCaul, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 24th (Open; Kenny Marchant, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Virginia’s 2nd (Elaine Luria, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Virginia's 5th (Open; Denver Riggleman, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Washington’s 3rd (Jaime Herrera Beutler, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Wisconsin’s 3rd (Ron Kind, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)

Agree with most of these except TX-02 and MN-01

Same here. Do they know something we don't?

[Gracile]

Aside from MN-01 and TX-02, I think these rating changes are pretty good or at least these seem to be heading in the direction I expect.

[Mr.Phips]

CNN has the GCB at D+12 (54-42), literally the same as the prez race (54-42). Not many ticket splitters or "check on Biden" voters here.

Perhaps people are rightfully too scared to do this after what happened in 2016.

[Xing]

CNN has the GCB at D+12 (54-42), literally the same as the prez race (54-42). Not many ticket splitters or "check on Biden" voters here.

Perhaps people are rightfully too scared to do this after what happened in 2016.

Yeah, while I don't deny that there are some Biden/Republican downballot voters out there, I don't think we're going to see a significant overperformance by Congressional Republicans compared to Trump in part because of this.

A lack of ticket-splitters, however, wouldn't be great news for Democrats in AK, KS, MT, or SC.

[Blair]

isn't this pointing to a double digit pickup of seats?

[Bootes Void]

Generally the house and presidential popular vote go the same way with the incumbent party doing a few points better than the other

[LimoLiberal]

This is interesting:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/28/1989134/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-10-28

MI-11: While a source familiar with Democratic media buys told us last month that the DCCC had canceled its full reservation for the 11th District and part of its booking for the 8th District, which is also in the Detroit media market, the committee appears to have changed its plans since then for the 11th.

While the D-Trip has spent nothing through Sunday in the 8th, where Democratic incumbent Elisa Slotkin is in strong shape, it spent $955,000 from Oct. 19-25 to aid fellow freshman Rep. Haley Stevens in the 11th. It’s not the only pro-Stevens group that’s been airing ads here, either: House Majority PAC also announced last week that it was spending $200,000 in the 11th against Republican Eric Esshaki, while Independence USA also deploying $1.2 million. On the other side, the Congressional Leadership Fund has expended $2.4 million here so far, though it didn’t spend anything last week.

It’s quite surprising to see this contest get so much spending. This suburban Detroit district backed Donald Trump 50-45 but moved hard to the left two years later, and Stevens won an open seat race 52-45 that cycle. Esshaki also hasn’t seemed like a particularly strong opponent, and the incumbent has enjoyed a huge financial advantage over him. However, while we haven’t seen any polls here, both parties are acting like this race is much more competitive than it looked just weeks ago.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Waste of money. I won't shed a tear when Cheri Bustos inevitably loses in 2022

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Waste of money. I won't shed a tear when Cheri Bustos inevitably loses in 2022

King Mike will probably draw her a comfortably Dem seat with tentacles flying everywhere.

[Storr]

isn't this pointing to a double digit pickup of seats?

Yes. ~15 sounds right to me.

[Roll Roons]

So, how many more rounds of ratings changes should we expect from Wasserman/Sabato?

[Oryxslayer]

So, how many more rounds of ratings changes should we expect from Wasserman/Sabato?

Sabato's final will either be tomorrow or Monday. No idea about Cook.