IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Iowa is seat 55 or so. Not anywhere close to tipping point lmao

And imo that's only if Kobach loses the primary in Kansas, otherwise it's 56. I get the feeling this is going to be a laughably overrated race to the bitter end.

I was actually including Kansas before Iowa: subtract Alabama and add CO AZ ME NC MT GAx2 KS IA

I think TX could go ahead of IA too

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Greenfield and state democrats should question Ernst on her thoughts on the governor's recent announcement regarding schools. And if she gives a half ass answer they need to tie her to Reynolds. Seeing a lot of conservative leaners or people not typically involved in politics pissed that she threw out each and every school districts individual plan for starting the year.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but is it pretty much a given that Auditor Sand runs against her in 2022? He’s been a huge critic on Twitter

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Ernst does win, I hope we can finally kill the notion that Iowa is a swing state still

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The only thing that could convince me that Joni Ernst will lose is Theresa Greenfield being called the winner on Election Night. Iowa is zooming rightward, and the polls are probably off by at least five points.

Iowa is not zooming rightwards. Did you miss 2018? And they were not off by 5% in 2018.

Still off by a decent amount https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ia/iowa_governor_reynolds_vs_hubbell-6477.html

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

I’m really gonna flip out if Biden wins Iowa but Greenfield doesn’t.  Same with North Carolina (if Biden wins while Cunningham doesn’t).  A Senate seat is so much more valuable than a few extra electoral votes (which really have no value on their own if you are already at or above 270).

We live in hell world, so that's pretty much what I would expect if we were to win an Iowa race, lol. The race that doesn't matter.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

My only confident prediction is that this thread will be a complete mess on/after election night.

Agreed. Both the presidential and Senate races in Iowa have been very divisive on this forum. I think this will be the final showdown between the “2016 trends” and “WWC will snap back” groups.

It'll be especially nasty if Iowa gives us a split verdict on Pres/Senate, lol.

I'm not changing my prediction maps in my profile, fwiw. MT and both GA seats flip before IA.

I absolutely dont get it how is MT more likely to flip than IA now, like Bullock is a great candidate but I dont see him outperforming Biden by 8 points , probably 5 or 6 which wont be enough.

As for IA it probably will be +3.5 Trump - +1 Biden at this point which makes winning the IA seat easier.

Your grammar just makes everything you write so cringy to read. If there was a question in there anywhere that you'd like me to respond to, kindly reword it.