Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[roxas11]

Personality cult? No. Just doing much right early.

The harder stuff comes later.

It may be more disdain for Trump policies than anything else.

I would caution on Biden approvals,the Unemployment numbers were 49 K jobs and these are the same polls that said D's would win 413 EC votes

Impeachment is at 47-40 , not a majority support impeachment.  Most voters have moved on.

It won be a D+9 Election with 57  percent approvals, more like a neutral but a D+3.5 with 50 percent approvals.

Biden isn't at 57 approvals in a Recession

Tell that to Republican Pat toomey
He is currently on the sunday shows saying that we do not need any more stimulus because the is convinced that the economy is going to be roaring back and Biden is going to riding a great economy in the future

now if any of what Pat toomey is claiming actually turns out to be true
than I think Biden and Harris will suddenly become a lot more popular than currently are right now...

[roxas11]

If you believe the polls, I feel bad for you.

You don't need to look at a poll in order to see that the Trump was a far more controversial and despised figure during his first year in office than Joe Biden currently is right now.

At this same time in 2017 it felt like I could not go anywhere without everybody around me talking about the latest trump tweet or controversy. Even my co-workers who voted for Trump told me that they wished that he would focus more on doing the job of president and tweet less

So far I simply not seeing the same level of hate for Joe Biden that I saw for Trump, Obama or even Hillary in 2016. Trust me people around here are not shy about attacking Dems and if Biden really was facing a growing backlash among voters or if he did became as hated as Trump was than I would have seen evidence of it by now

[roxas11]

Biden has a higher disapproval than Obama, Bush, and Clinton so far. Not a great sign for re-election as of now. But the country is more polarized now more than ever.

Trump disapproval was way worse than Biden's and he still barley lost in 2020.....

On 538 Biden current disapproval is 39.5......Trump's was 52.7 at this same point in time

[roxas11]

Most polls seem to arrive on Wednesday. It is a huge assumption to hold that Joe Biden will hold the large edge in approval numbers that he now holds for three and a half years.  The connection to approval and voting for an  incumbent in a re-election effort is extremely strong. If the most recent polling map holds (ignore Texas, which is a virtual tie, and Biden can win without it), then I see a decisive Biden re-election. In the last four elections involving an incumbent President seeking a second term, no more than five states have swung one way or the other. Although 1992 and 1980 are huge losses for the Incumbent's Party, the years 1984 and 1956 fit that pattern, too.

The focus is on the incumbent, and the incumbent usually shows why he got elected the first time. The campaign promises that one made typically get achieved, more or less, and the Incumbent ordinarily runs on his record or runs against Congress for frustrating those promises. If he must run from the record he loses.

OK... five states changing hands is not so gigantic if the states are nearly even in popular votes and go opposite ways even if some are electorally large:

1992  (CO, GA, MT D to R, AZ, FL  R to D)

as if all five are electorally large and all go one way

(AZ, GA, MI, NE-02, PA, WI all R to D... 74 electoral votes altogether) then the incumbent had better have won by a large, tangible margin.

So suppose that three of the closest states of 2020 change hands -- Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Biden wins.   

 
Biden does not need to hold his current support in order to win



The reality is Unless Biden can pull off becoming even more unpopular than trump was in 2020 He will still most likely end up winning reelection if he runs. If trump proved anything in 2020, it is that it is very hard to for a President to lose if they seek a second term even if that President is unpopular

Despite everything that happened over the past few years, Trump still almost won. That means all Biden really has to do is simply be slightly more popular than Trump was in 2020 and if can do that he will be on track to be reelected if chooses to run

[roxas11]

Quinnipiac: 48% Approve, 42% Disapprove


Snap back to reality...

The reality is this is actually a not a bad poll for Biden at all because if this is what his poll numbers look like right now than the GOP is going to be in very big trouble when the economy really starts booming

For example, in this poll only 50 percent of Americans approve, 42 percent disapprove of Biden when it comes to the economy.

If that is the case I expect those specific numbers to rise since currently unemployment is expected to drop below 4% in 2022 as the U.S. economy recovers. Heck, as we speak The Dow just hit a record high today based on surging Retail Sales and Jobless Claims Hitting a Pandemic Low of 576,000, a decrease of 193,000 from the previous week. That was the lowest week for Jobless Claims since March 14, 2020, when the pandemic really starting gripping the United States.

[roxas11]

Why are we looking so hard at Approvals, as I said before Obama was at 60/40 the yr before the 2010 Tea Party Revolt, but Obama won Reelection based on the 278 blue wall, the S is slowly drifting R as long as Covid and border crisis remain a problem. Same with Biden he will win not for the S but the 278 blue wall.  AZ can easily go back R and GA too, Kelly is weak but still a slight fav

Do you guys really think it's gonna be a D plus 8 Election, no it's not, the zone of probability it D plus 3.1 like last time enough to hold the Trifecta and AZ, NH and GA are Vulnerable and D's in TX and FL  in the H are Vulnerable too

Unless Covid is Eradicated, it's gonna be a close Election next Fall. You see the state by state polling isn't matching with a 60 percent Approvals, there are jobs but they are slave labor factory jobs

The Midterms are based on Generic ballot numbers not Prez Approvals and Biden won't be at 57 percent next fall

By the way 1400 wasn't enough stimulus,  it should of been 2K or 2600

In the words of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema

[roxas11]

ABC News/Washington Post, April 18-21, 1007 adults

Approve 52
Disapprove 42

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 35

A surprisingly great poll for Biden and very bad for the GOP.

The results of this polls is basically saying that the only reason Biden is not higher is because a lot of people still think the economy sucks right now. This poll is showing that just 42% of Americans rate the economy positively, and 58% percent say it's not-so-good or in poor shape.


If Biden is getting 52 with those kinds of numbers on the economy than the GOP is going to be in big trouble once everything is reopened and the economy is roaring back with the kind of economic growth we have not seen in decades. At this point the GOP better hope and pray that the projections of insane growth in 2022 is way off lol

[roxas11]

Well, it looks Biden just got great news at a time when he really needed it the most



make no mistake this incredible jobs repot just gave biden and his agenda huge boost.

[roxas11]

I thought Herschel Walker was good, he isn't that good and deserves to loose

Until recently I had no idea about Herschel Walker personal problems

He suffers from dissociative identity disorder and one time it got so bad that he put a gun to his wife's head

Just these 2 facts alone make me wonder why in the world would the GOP ever want this guy to be their nominee in the first place

[roxas11]

Based on 538 it looks like Afghanistan is already starting to fade as an issue

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Biden dropped to his lowest on august 20 when he hit 48.9 percent for the first time, but today he has jumped back up to 49.4

I suspect that Biden will see a boost to his approval if he actually does end up successfully passing the rest of his domestic agenda. Plus, when it comes to Covid Biden may also benefit from the FDA finally giving full approval to the vaccines

[roxas11]

It’s not just Afghanistan. His ratings were falling before that

According to the nbc poll today, the American rescue plan is underwater by 3 points

Right track/wrong track is 29-63

These are not numbers you want to see as the party in power

This is true

Biden approval was slowly declining before the Afghanistan withdrawal but there is no question that Afghanistan was the main reason why he experienced the biggest poll drops of his presidency

The fact that Biden approval ratings are starting to recover despite the fact the covid situation has not changed that much at all of the last few days makes it clear to me that the negative Afghanistan coverage was the main reason why his poll number took a hit. But now that Afghanistan is starting to fade his poll numbers are going back up again

had covid been main reason for Biden, seeing record low poll numbers than there is no way his approval would be recovering like it currently is right now    

[roxas11]

Honestly, what amazes me the most about Biden numbers when I look at 538 is that even at his lowest he still, is way more popular than ever was Trump ever was. Biden is more popular in the middle of worsening pandemic and chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal than Trump was during a booming economy.....

That would scare the heck out of me if was a republican who was thinking about running in 2024 because despite trump bad poll numbers he still barely lost in 2020

That means that technically all Biden or even Harris would need to do is be slightly more popular than trump was in 2020 and they will win the 2024 election lol

[roxas11]

Honestly, what amazes me the most about Biden numbers when I look at 538 is that even at his lowest he still, is way more popular than ever was Trump ever was. Biden is more popular in the middle of worsening pandemic and chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal than Trump was during a booming economy.....

That would scare the heck out of me if was a republican who was thinking about running in 2024 because despite trump bad poll numbers he still barely lost in 2020

that means that technically all Biden or even Harris would need to do is be slightly more popular than trump was in 2020 and they will win the 2024 election lol

[b]Try and convince yourself first.[/b]

convince myself of what?

trump was not a well liked guy and it is honestly shocking that his number was that bad when the economy was doing really well

[roxas11]

Roxas was strongly in favor of the 2K checks and now that Biden hasn't proposed it any longer like alot of users on this Forum, they forget about the stimulus and move to strongly support the infrastructure.

That 2K stimulus was solely based on life returning to normal now Unemployment and UBI payments aren't being renewed, and when it comes to state stimulus if you don't qualify for EITC you don't qualify for a stimulus

now Kanye you know this is not true
I have never been against giving out more stimulus, especially during a worsening pandemic

I just think that we all know that the people who really control democrat party will never vote for it

[roxas11]

Based on 538 it looks like Afghanistan is already starting to fade as an issue

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Biden dropped to his lowest on august 20 when he hit 48.9 percent for the first time, but today he has jumped back up to 49.4

Ahem.. During same time his disapprovals went up from 45.2 to 46.2, so his net still went down. Marginally, yes, by 0.5%, but down. Plus, there will always be some noise day to day or even week to week.

It’s not just Afghanistan. His ratings were falling before that

According to the nbc poll today, the American rescue plan is underwater by 3 points

Right track/wrong track is 29-63

These are not numbers you want to see as the party in power

This is true

Biden approval was slowly declining before the Afghanistan withdrawal but there is no question that Afghanistan was the main reason why he experienced the biggest poll drops of his presidency

I don't know if there is no questions about it. It depends on which date most people really start to understand it was a mess. Depending on this date Biden could have lost from 30% to 70% before Afghanistan.

I would argue that most people don't really follow the news. Kabul fell August 15th, and the most horrid videos started to popping 16-18th August? When did most Americans see that? 16th? 17th? Or perhaps 20th? I don't know. As I said, most people just live their lives.

But, for instance, NBC poll that came out today and showed 13 drop (since April among all adults) was done 14-17 Aug. So, perhaps, most of this drop came before sh**t hit the fan. It's just my speculations, obviously, but it isn't as clear as you imply it is, imo.

The other thing, that kinda back me up, is that Americans approve of Biden’s response to the coronavirus crisis went down as well. It was very steady for a half year at about 62/32 (+30), then at beginning of July it started to went down. Today it at 53/41 (+12). Still good, much worse then before.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/

Similar with economy
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_biden_job_approval_economy-7321.html


Will Biden re-bound, at least a little? I'd say (much?) more likely yes, than no. We'll see.

The main reason why im skeptical of this is beacuse this simply does not explin why Biden numbers are now going up. if covid and the economy was the reason for the decline than there should be no reason for Biden's poll numbers to be improving right about now since nothing about the economy or Covid has changed over the last few days

The only thing that has changed over the past few days is that Afghanistan is no longer getting the wall to wall coverage that it was getting last week.

[roxas11]

There is almost zero evidence yet that his numbers has started to go up. Noise.

this is a fair point and his recent rise may very well end up being noise from some polls

But if that turns out not be the case, then I suspect that we will see Bidens numbers continue to slowly rise as Afghanistan continues to fade. In the end, I don't see him getting any huge poll boost unless he either succeeds in passing his domestic agenda or if the covid situation dramatically starts to get better

[roxas11]

In 2009 the tea party backlash against Obama was huge and I could see evidence of it everywhere.

In 2017 you didn't even need a poll to see that people really could not stand Trump and the Republicans were going to to struggle during the upcoming elections

In the case of Biden the Suffolk University poll, simply does not reflect what I actually see on the ground. Now don't get wrong, there definitely has been some dissatisfaction with joe, but so far the hate for Biden is not even close to what I was seeing with Trump, Obama, or even Hillary lol

Things can change and Biden may eventually end up getting to the level of unpopularity, but as of right now I have not seen anything close to the kind of backlash that Obama was getting in 2009 and that is the main reason why I'm not buying Suffolk University poll

Now its possible that maybe more polls will come out and back up Suffolk University results, but based on lack of backlash I'm am currently seeing for Biden in even a red state like Louisiana I doubt it......

[roxas11]

I have to say, people here pretending that Biden somehow isn't unpopular or even worse, is somehow more popular than Obama is hysterical.

I did not like Barack H. Obama whatsoever and I believe that he was an atrocious president, but there were millions of African Americans (and a lot of Americans in general) celebrating and literally crying in joy over his 2008 victory in a way that Mr. Robinette, or frankly literally any other politician could only dream of. 44 had genuine popularity and an impact on pop culture and a strong base of support (as did 45) which 46 lacks. This only began to slip away in his second term, which is partially what led to Trump's 2016 victory (in fact, the parallels between Obama's second term and Biden's first term are undeniable).  

The memory holing and re-writing of history done on here is sometimes hysterical.

Biden is not facing anything close to 2009 tea party backlash against Obama and all the spin in the world is not going to change that fact

]




The level of vitriol and hatered for Obama was at level that I have never seen before for any president at that point. Nothing, I'm seeing with Biden even compares to that. Sure, people may disapprove of Biden when it comes how he is handling things on a particular issue or policy, but in the case Obama the hate for him went far beyond just his policies.

If anything the people who are trying re-writing of history are the ones who are acting like Biden political problems even come to the craziness that Obama dealing with in 2009-2010

[roxas11]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

[roxas11]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

This is inaccurate — you picked out his numbers on "handling public schools." His overall approval rating is +2 (47/45). It’s the first question...

those numbers are still terrible for a governer who was doing way better than that, not too long ago and if this is what his numbers currently is when it comes to his "handling of public schools. Then what happens once we get into the fall school season...

[roxas11]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

This is inaccurate — you picked out his numbers on "handling public schools." His overall approval rating is +2 (47/45). It’s the first question...

those numbers are still terrible for a governer who was doing way better than that, not too long ago and if this is what his numbers currently is when it comes to his "handling public schools. Then what happens once we in get into the fall school season...

48/45 think DeSantis deserved re-election. They showed Gillum +7
40/53 approves Biden's. They showed Biden +5 in GE.

Difficult to spin it as good news for Democrats.

I never made any claim that this was good news for Democrats in my original post

I simply pointed out that Ron numbers have clearly declined compared where they were only a few months ago

[roxas11]

I just saw the latest job report and I wonder what political impact this news will have on Biden



I do think that if things keep going in this direction that Biden and Dems will eventually start to benefit from the economy. Even with inflation that still may not enough to hide the fact that were are in the middle of a booming economy and that could be a big problem for the GOP since thier message in 2022 will be primarily all about inflation.

At this point the GOP needs to hope that inflation becomes a bigger deal by 2022 but if economics turn out to right and inflation starts to decline during 2022 than the GOP economic message may not be as effective by November 2022

[roxas11]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

Increasingly, it feels like people are living in an a alternate universe because reading this USA today article you would have no idea that all of this is currently happening under Biden right now





Covid has also massively declined around the country, yet based on how some of the folks in the USA today article are acting you would think unemployment was at 20 percent and covid wiped out half the US population lol

I Used to think that worries about inflation was driving all of this, but to be honest, I'm not sure I buy that anymore. President Gerald Ford had inflation and a far worse economy, but even he was not getting numbers like this. I think what we are really seeing is the effect disinformation on social media is having on Biden and the Dems. Facebook has actually convinced a lot of people that they are in the middle of the Great depression....

[roxas11]

Acually I just noticed that the date of the Suffolk poll is NOV. 3-5

meaning that we still don't know the full impact of the passage of the infrastructure bill or even the recent jobs report

this is important since the Suffolk poll showed that the infrastructure bill was actually very popular, and even the reconciliation bill still had more people saying they support it compared to those who don't

[roxas11]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/11/07/biden-approval-falls-38-midterms-loom-usa-today-suffolk-poll/6320098001/?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot

Increasingly, it feels like people are living in an a alternate universe because reading this USA today article you would have no idea that all of this is currently happening under Biden right now





Covid has also massively declined around the country, yet based on how some of the folks in the USA today article are acting you would think unemployment was at 20 percent and covid wiped out half the US population lol

I Used to think that worries about inflation was driving all of this, but to be honest, I'm not sure I buy that anymore. President Gerald Ford had inflation and a far worse economy, but even he was not getting numbers like this. I think what we are really seeing is the effect disinformation on social media is having on Biden and the Dems. Facebook has actually convinced a lot of people that they are in the middle of the Great depression....

Yep, nearly 50% in the latest YouGov Economist poll say "the economy is getting worse." I almost can't tell if people are either living in an alternate reality, or they really think that the entire economy is based on inflation and gas prices. I feel like it's the latter, b/c that's the only that makes sense.

even that really does not make sense because Obama had a worse economy and high gas prices in 2012 and his numbers were still not as low as Biden currently is right now

As I said before, I'm not longer buying this inflation argument because we had many presidents who faced high inflation and high gas prices yet not a single one of them was as low as Biden is

At this point I'm convinced that social media is having a far bigger impact on how American see the economy than many of us would like to admit