2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[muon2]

Not a Chicago expert, but Vallas only getting 33.8% (which will likely go lower with more VBMs counted I presume) as basically the only conservative in the race seems to bode well for Johnson? In theory, he'd coalesce the Johnson-Lightfoot-Garcia #s at least, right?

I’ve been seeing this take a lot. I’m not sure why people are assuming Lightfoot or Chuy voters would be a lock for Johnson.

I agree, Lori feuded with the CTU which is the core of Johnson's support. Some of Lori's voters will share the mistrust of the CTU, particularly if they support charter schools. Lori has support among the trade unions (as opposed to CTU and the service unions). Watch for trade union endorsements in the coming days as a measure of Vallas' ability to move beyond his current base.

I'd add Wilson voters in the mix, too. Wilson (I've worked with him) is more conservative than Vallas. Black voters for Wilson are more likely to go to Vallas than Johnson IMO.

If Vallas gets most of Wilson's vote plus 40% of Lori's vote, he's basically at 50% before looking at Chuy's vote. Consider that Chuy also had some strong trade union support (esp. the Operating Engineers) and you can see why I want to watch the trade union endorsements. If Vallas gets Chuy's union support, I think he'll have the inside track to the 5th floor.

[muon2]

Vallas also originated and supported a proposal to reallocate money earmarked for teacher pensions into a general operating budget, which, alongside a decrease in returns from the stock market and an increasing number of retirees caused CPS to be unable to make their full payments on time in later years. This has been identified as an inciting incident for the subsequent $1 billion budget crisis, attributed largely to spiking pension payments in later years.

As CEO, he presided over the nation's largest experiment in privatized management of schools, with the management of over 40 schools turned over to outside for-profits, nonprofits, and universities beginning in Fall 2002.

Chicago Republican Party Chair Chris Cleveland called Vallas the "lesser of 13 evils." Vallas welcomed the endorsement, commenting, "This is a non-partisan election and I'm running for mayor to represent all Chicagoans. I've traveled to every ward and met with every constituency. The crisis that Chicago faces affects all citizens. I thank the Republican committee for their confidence in my candidacy." Former Republican governor Bruce Rauner commented in an interview that, of those running, Vallas, "might make the best mayor."

Yeaaah, in addition to his multiple gaffes (Freudian slips?) during the race itself and all of this and I'm absolutely convinced that anyone backing Vallas would've been fine with electing another Bloomberg type mayor in Chicago as the man is clearly in Democratic politics simply cause it's Chicago. I hope the city doesn't fall for it.

He's been a Dem in IL politics for over 20 years. In 2002 he ran as a Dem for Governor. He narrowly lost the primary to then US Rep Rod Blagojevich in a three way race including former AG Roland Burris (36.6-34.5-29.0). Vallas ran as a technocrat on his then positive record running the Chicago schools and carried Cook county. Blago won by running the table in more conservative downstate IL. IL would have had a far different history had that primary gone the other way.

[muon2]

This is important less for its direct impact on voters and more as, in essence, a free pass for any Democratic politicians or institutions to line up behind Vallas. If Jesse White's doing it, it's okay for everyone else to do it.

Democratic pols were always going to get behind Vallas, no matter what Jessie White did. It is notable in that it sets the tone for Black lawmakers. I expect Bobby Rush to do the same pretty quickly. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who follows politics in this town that Johnson has a big uphill climb in this.

Not only is Jesse White the first Black and longest-serving SoS in IL, but he's consistently been the most popular vote-getter statewide for two decades. His endorsement not only opens the doors for a lot of Dem pols to back Vallas, but it carries a lot of weight in the Black community, particularly with older voters.