Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[muon2]

I'm back to making my annual projection from the new estimates. I used the July 2023 estimates and the April 2020 Census base to get an annual growth rate. This correctly accounts for the 3 and a quarter year period between the Census and the estimate. I then applied the annual growth rate to the 2020 reapportionment population to get the 2030 projection. This accounts for the extra overseas population used in reapportionment but not for redistricting.

AZ +1
CA -4
DE +1
FL +3
GA +1
ID +1
IL -2
MN -1
NY -3
NC +1
OR -1
PA -1
RI -1
TN +1
TX +4
UT +1
WI -1

The bubble seats in this projection are based on the last five awarded and the next five in line.
The last five awarded are LA-6, TN-10, MI-13, CA-48, and DE-2 (#435).
The next five in line are SC-8, FL-32, WI-8, TX-43, and PA-17.

I also make an alternate projection based on just the prior two years of estimates to determine the rate of growth. It's more sensitive to recent growth trends, and should reduce the impact of the pandemic. The differences are DE stays even, FL gains 4, LA loses 1, MI loses 1, SC gains 1, and WI stays even.

I expect that these projections will shift as the decade progresses.

[muon2]

With the Mexican border surge, I expect an acceleration in population growth to 2 million with the next set of estimates in one year. Or +0.6%.

How much of that increase from 1 Jul 2023 to 30 Jun 2024 do you expect from immigration? In 2023 the estimate was 0.5 million from natural change and 1.1 million from immigration.

[muon2]

With the Mexican border surge, I expect an acceleration in population growth to 2 million with the next set of estimates in one year. Or +0.6%.

How much of that increase from 1 Jul 2023 to 30 Jun 2024 do you expect from immigration? In 2023 the estimate was 0.5 million from natural change and 1.1 million from immigration.

Muon,

I expect 3.7 million births and 3.05 million deaths in between this next Census Bureau year.

That's +0.65 million in natural change + maybe 1.2 to 1.4 million in legal immigration surplus.

(Illegal immigrants crossing the Mexico border are NOT estimated by the Census Bureau in their annual estimates.)

The 2021 faq about counting foreign-born persons included this:

Do the data on the foreign born collected by the Census Bureau include unauthorized immigrants?

Yes. The U.S. Census Bureau collects data from all foreign born who participate in its censuses and surveys, regardless of legal status. Thus, unauthorized migrants are implicitly included in the Census Bureau estimates of the total foreign-born population.

That seems to say that illegal immigrants (unauthorized migrants to the CB) are included in their estimates.