Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion (user search)
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  Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion  (Read 67023 times)
muon2
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« on: March 11, 2021, 08:43:16 AM »

The codicil. Assuming the 4 black performing CD's in the Atlanta metro are drawn the way one would draw them given the VRA, free of gerrymandering otherwise, and we get rid of the gerrymandering of the white CD's, below is what one might find. The Gwinnett based CD is gone for the Pubs out of the box, GA-05 is unlikely to hold for the decade, and GA-12 may also fall to the Dems before the decade is out. So the legal gerrymander for the Pubs, buys it one CD right away (and an outside chance of even 2 CD's), and one to two more over the course of the decade that might otherwise fall. So the Pubs might actually for the short term pick up a seat in a "fair map," on a relatively short term lease.

Yes, I know, some might not consider the map "fair." That is OK. And maybe it is not the best map that can be drawn. But I suspect most would consider it reasonable, at least in general perhaps, if not here.  Smile



The map looks nice, but one question I have is whether you tried to take into account the full Atlanta metro as defined by the UCC, or was it impossible due the VRA constraints. With 2018 data, the UCC supports 7.3 CDs. You have 6 nested, and 4 CDs that split the remaining 1.3 in the UCC. By the UCC rules that's 1 pack and 3 chop points of penalty.

The use of the UCC may not be so academic as it seemed last decade. If the suburbs are realigning, then keeping more of them together may be beneficial to capturing the trend over the coming decade.
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muon2
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« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2021, 10:13:07 AM »

Here's my quick take on a division of the Atlanta UCC using the 2018 data.



The UCC has 7.3 CDs of population and the closest 7 CD arrangement of whole counties drops Coweta and Walton.

The overall population range is less than 1%. The 5 NW counties naturally form 2 CDs (CD6 and CD 7) with a deficit of 4700 people, and I wouldn't be surprised to see enough growth to cover that by 2020.

In the other counties the DeKalb chop became a macrochop and there is one additional macrochop in Fulton beyond what would be required by population.

CDs 1-4 are Black VRA districts with BCVAP of 51.7%, 53.7%, 50.7% and 52.7% respectively.

CD 5 follows the Atlanta city line in Fulton and the old township lines in Gwinnett with one chop. It wouldn't have been competitive in 2016, but has been trending more competitive with the suburban realignment.

CD 6 is completely nested in Cobb and is a competitive district.

CD 7 is uncompetitive R.
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: March 11, 2021, 03:22:38 PM »

Here's what I put together using the Atlanta UCC plan from earlier today. I stuck with whole counties, and brought the range down to 0.63%. Including the Atlanta UCC there are 6 county chops total which only 3 above the minimum required given the permissible range. There is one extra UCC
chops and no pack penalty.

The counties were grouped to minimize erosity by eye. I'd have to find an old erosity map of GA counties to see if there might be a grouping with lower erosity.

I didn't look at political data while drawing the plan, much like some independent commissions (eg. CA) might do. (I don't find averages including data before 2016 very indicative of current performance anyway). When they put up the 2020 PVI numbers I'll be more interested in drawing maps to better meet the political metrics of skew and polarization.

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