The Official 2020 Census Thread

[muon2]

Today, the Census Bureau put out 3 sets of estimates for the US population on Census Day, April 1:



Those estimates are much higher than the mid-2019 population estimates projected forward.

These estimates were released to compare it to the actual Census count out later next year.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/2020-demographic-analysis-estimates.html

Hey those are actually some really nice numbers

But those are only ranges of where the US population could have been on April 1.

This is not based on any data from the actual enumeration yet.

The actual count could be in this range, or 325 million, or 340 million too.

The demographic analysis released yesterday uses a different methodology than the annual estimates and they aren't necessarily expected to be the same. The estimates start with the most recent census then determine the change in population since that point on a yearly basis, with adjustments to prior years as each new estimate is produced. The demographic analysis starts from scratch and uses birth and death records, immigration data, and Medicare records to determine a total population. The intent is to compare the demographic analysis to the actual 2020 Census and look for possible systematic overcounts or undercounts.

[muon2]

Republican OH sues the Census Bureau, because they are too lazy to re-schedule their redistricting process (like other non-lazy states do)

Here is the complaint.

https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Briefing-Room/News-Releases/Activity-in-Case-321-cv-00064-TMR-State-Of-Ohio-v.aspx

The Census Bureau is in violation of federal statute. Ohio would have to amend its Constitution or use an alternate data source. The Census Bureau has not explained why they plan to dump all the data at the last moment.

On the Feb conference call to the National Conference of State Legislatures, the CB described in detail the advantages and disadvantages of a staggered release and a single-day release. The advantage of the single day release is it provided the most accurate numbers for all states on the earliest date. A staggered release might provide some states earlier data, but other states would be significantly later due to their methods to cross check data for consistency. I was on the call and I believe OH was on the call, too.

[muon2]

Republican OH sues the Census Bureau, because they are too lazy to re-schedule their redistricting process (like other non-lazy states do)

Here is the complaint.

https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Briefing-Room/News-Releases/Activity-in-Case-321-cv-00064-TMR-State-Of-Ohio-v.aspx

The Census Bureau is in violation of federal statute. Ohio would have to amend its Constitution or use an alternate data source. The Census Bureau has not explained why they plan to dump all the data at the last moment.

On the Feb conference call to the National Conference of State Legislatures, the CB described in detail the advantages and disadvantages of a staggered release and a single-day release. The advantage of the single day release is it provided the most accurate numbers for all states on the earliest date. A staggered release might provide some states earlier data, but other states would be significantly later due to their methods to cross check data for consistency. I was on the call and I believe OH was on the call, too.

This is the webinar, isn't it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXfuUmiEpp4&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=NCSLorg

These are the slides - they get covered up by zoom boxes.

Slides for Webinar (PDF)

Ben Williams suggested that statutory and legislative deadlines might be pushed back, but acknowledged that he didn't know whether that was plausible for constitutional deadlines, as is the case in Ohio.

It was interesting that he suggested redistricting based on other data sources, and then adjusting as necessary. That is what I would do.

Surprisingly, the Ohio Constitution actually provides for use of alternate data sources.

The use of other data sources and then adjusting is also what was proposed in the MN suit.

[muon2]

Republican OH sues the Census Bureau, because they are too lazy to re-schedule their redistricting process (like other non-lazy states do)

Here is the complaint.

https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Briefing-Room/News-Releases/Activity-in-Case-321-cv-00064-TMR-State-Of-Ohio-v.aspx

The Census Bureau is in violation of federal statute. Ohio would have to amend its Constitution or use an alternate data source. The Census Bureau has not explained why they plan to dump all the data at the last moment.

On the Feb conference call to the National Conference of State Legislatures, the CB described in detail the advantages and disadvantages of a staggered release and a single-day release. The advantage of the single day release is it provided the most accurate numbers for all states on the earliest date. A staggered release might provide some states earlier data, but other states would be significantly later due to their methods to cross check data for consistency. I was on the call and I believe OH was on the call, too.

This is the webinar, isn't it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXfuUmiEpp4&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=NCSLorg

These are the slides - they get covered up by zoom boxes.

Slides for Webinar (PDF)

Ben Williams suggested that statutory and legislative deadlines might be pushed back, but acknowledged that he didn't know whether that was plausible for constitutional deadlines, as is the case in Ohio.

It was interesting that he suggested redistricting based on other data sources, and then adjusting as necessary. That is what I would do.

Surprisingly, the Ohio Constitution actually provides for use of alternate data sources.

The use of other data sources and then adjusting is also what was proposed in the MN suit.

I didn't see that - and I just checked again.

The included plans did use estimates.

Shouldn't the legislature and governor be the parties that are sued? If the plaintiffs are injured, is it their inaction that is the cause?

This is from the complaint (emphasis added):

29.Plaintiffs will update this preliminary plan in the months to come. The first update will be with the 2019 population estimates previously reported by the State Demographer and the 2020 Census TIGER geography from the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau has announced that all states will receive their 2020 TIGER geography toward the end of February. The second update will be with the redistricting data delivered to the state under Public Law 94-171(the population counts  with  race  and  ethnicity  data  at  the  level  of  a  census  block).  The  Census  Bureau  has announced that the redistricting data will be delivered to all states by September 30, 2021.7  The third update will be when this Court solicits from each of the parties redistricting plans the Court may consult in drawing its own plans.

As for the parties at suit, I trust that plaintiff Wattson knows state law. Given his service as general counsel to the MN Senate I'm sure he knows who are the appropriate parties. AFAIK he could have written the laws he's suing under.

[muon2]

Republican OH sues the Census Bureau, because they are too lazy to re-schedule their redistricting process (like other non-lazy states do)

Here is the complaint.

https://www.ohioattorneygeneral.gov/Files/Briefing-Room/News-Releases/Activity-in-Case-321-cv-00064-TMR-State-Of-Ohio-v.aspx

The Census Bureau is in violation of federal statute. Ohio would have to amend its Constitution or use an alternate data source. The Census Bureau has not explained why they plan to dump all the data at the last moment.

On the Feb conference call to the National Conference of State Legislatures, the CB described in detail the advantages and disadvantages of a staggered release and a single-day release. The advantage of the single day release is it provided the most accurate numbers for all states on the earliest date. A staggered release might provide some states earlier data, but other states would be significantly later due to their methods to cross check data for consistency. I was on the call and I believe OH was on the call, too.

This is the webinar, isn't it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXfuUmiEpp4&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=NCSLorg

These are the slides - they get covered up by zoom boxes.

Slides for Webinar (PDF)

Ben Williams suggested that statutory and legislative deadlines might be pushed back, but acknowledged that he didn't know whether that was plausible for constitutional deadlines, as is the case in Ohio.

It was interesting that he suggested redistricting based on other data sources, and then adjusting as necessary. That is what I would do.

Surprisingly, the Ohio Constitution actually provides for use of alternate data sources.

The use of other data sources and then adjusting is also what was proposed in the MN suit.

I didn't see that - and I just checked again.

The included plans did use estimates.

Shouldn't the legislature and governor be the parties that are sued? If the plaintiffs are injured, is it their inaction that is the cause?

This is from the complaint (emphasis added):

29.Plaintiffs will update this preliminary plan in the months to come. The first update will be with the 2019 population estimates previously reported by the State Demographer and the 2020 Census TIGER geography from the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau has announced that all states will receive their 2020 TIGER geography toward the end of February. The second update will be with the redistricting data delivered to the state under Public Law 94-171(the population counts  with  race  and  ethnicity  data  at  the  level  of  a  census  block).  The  Census  Bureau  has announced that the redistricting data will be delivered to all states by September 30, 2021.7  The third update will be when this Court solicits from each of the parties redistricting plans the Court may consult in drawing its own plans.

As for the parties at suit, I trust that plaintiff Wattson knows state law. Given his service as general counsel to the MN Senate I'm sure he knows who are the appropriate parties. AFAIK he could have written the laws he's suing under.

The complaint is only demonstrating that the state is malapportioned, and that a remedy is possible.

I wonder if I have standing to intervene. My congressional map is better than the plaintiffs.

In the 2010 cycle the MN SC opened up submissions from any interested parties. This was objected to by both established parties who had previously thought they were the only ones involved in the standoff. If the 2020 MN SC follows their 2011 precedent you should be able to submit your plan. Have you measured it against their proposed metrics?