Illinois Primary Thread

[muon2]

Based on voters at my polling place the turnout is down a bit compared to 2006. However, the surge of D ballots that almost overtook the R count in 2008 are gone. It's back to a 3 to1 R-D split.

[muon2]

Brady adopted the same strategy this time as he did 4 years ago.  Ignore Chicago and the collar counties and get in on the downstate vote.  Appears to have worked better this time around.

Ill_Ind

When you only need 21% to win, it can certainly work...

And Brady wasn't faced with an Oberweis who spent a lot of money downstate in 2006.

[muon2]

Oh and by the way Muon

Are you gearing up to run for Hultgren's State Senate seat should he win in November?

Ill Ind

I just returned from the Hultgren party. If Hultgren wins in November the remaining two years on his state Sen term will be filled by appointment. The chair of the DuPage GOP will control the weighted vote for that appointment.

[muon2]

So then no special election.

Aren't they doing a special down in Senate 51 for a 2 year term to replace Watson?  What are the rules on that?

Ill_Ind

Watson resigned right after the 2008 election. That was early enough to trigger an election to fill the remaining two years in the 2010 cycle. IL has no special elections for the legislature, except at regular general elections.

[muon2]

AP needs to grow a pair and call these things. I'm done for the night.

I don't think these races are going to be called for some time. The last few precincts can take hours to come in. However, I'm also going to stop for some rest, and I'll rejoin things later this morning.

[muon2]

Something changed in the numbers to make the GOP Governors' race much closer.  Whatever it was wasn't in Cook County:

Brady 154,629 (20%)
Dillard 154,119 (20%)
McKenna 146,568 (19%)
Brady +510

Projection is now Brady +175.

What's out is:
94 Chicago
24 Suburban Cook
(Bloom 1; Bremen 2; Cicero 1; Evanston 1; Lyons 1; Maine 1; Niles 2; Oak Park 1; Orland 1; Palatine 2; Proviso 1; Schaumburg 1; Stickney 1; Thornton 5; Worth 3)
1 St. Clair (Caseyville)

According to the Cook County Clerk's website, the rest of Suburban Cook won't be counted until 9AM at the County Clerk's warehouse, to allow for public viewing.  Chicago results are still trickling in.

The big bump was probably from Lake County. There was a discrepancy much of the evening between the county #s and the AP count. Speculation was on some early/absentee ballots and those were expected to favor Dillard over Brady.

There's also some discussion that McHenry may have some early/absentee votes outstanding.

The suburban Cook precincts include a few from GOP districts, so those could generat some additional vote swings. At 538 Nate projects one vote margin after the Cook precincts are counted! He's incorrect however to say that a recount is assured, since in IL there is no automatic recount law. Candidates must go to court to have a discovery recount of selected precincts, then may petition for a full recount based on the discovery.

[muon2]

Quinn's lead is getting larger. (11118/11215 reporting)

Quinn 451,702 (50.4%)
Hynes 444,500 (49.6%)

Frankly, I don't see what Hynes wants to do at this point. He's almost losing by an entire percentage point, and it's very unlikely that a recount would change anything.


The Republican side, however, is still ridiculously close. (11118/11215 reporting)

Brady 154,646 (20.31%)
Dillard 154,143 (20.25%)
McKenna 146,614 (19.26%)
Ryan 129,686 (17.04%)
Andrzejewski 109,954 (14.44%)

This is almost certainly heading to a recount....but almost all the outstanding precints are in Cook County, as cinyc said.

Brady is currently at 5% in Cook. Dillard is at 18%. It's very possible that Dillard could still overtake him.

Are the absentee votes counted yet?

Those could make a difference in both races.

Absentee ballots that arrive on or before Election Day are counted on Election Day in Illinois, and the results are released with the normal precinct results after the polls close.

There are probably some late arriving absentee ballots postmarked before Election Day but not yet received by elections officials, but I doubt that they make up a very large proportion of absentee ballots.

There are also provisional ballots that need to be counted. The race is close enough that late absentee and provisional ballots could swing the election. Even differences between official and unofficial counts in the counties could be significant in the race.

[muon2]

Are the absentee votes counted yet?

Those could make a difference in both races.

Absentee ballots that arrive on or before Election Day are counted on Election Day in Illinois, and the results are released with the normal precinct results after the polls close.

There are probably some late arriving absentee ballots postmarked before Election Day but not yet received by elections officials, but I doubt that they make up a very large proportion of absentee ballots.

There are also provisional ballots that need to be counted. The race is close enough that late absentee and provisional ballots could swing the election. Even differences between official and unofficial counts in the counties could be significant in the race.

I may be wrong...but I seem to remember that Illinois has a very low acceptance rate of provisional ballots.

That's true, but the margin between Brady and Dillard may be close enough for them to matter.

[muon2]

The Republican LG nominee was also a shocker - a random, 27-year-old teabagger from Edwardsville.

Still, there's no denying that the Dems' situation is WAY worse. Is Quinn going to have to run as an independent?

The GOP nominee does have some political history. He worked in DC for former Senator Peter Fitzgerald and was the county GOP chairman.

[muon2]

The pressure to force Cohen off the ballot as LG seems to be at a fever pitch. Sen. Durbin's quote sums up what all the top Dems are saying now “He really should spare himself, and his friends and family what he’s about to go through.”

[muon2]

The pressure to force Cohen off the ballot as LG seems to be at a fever pitch. Sen. Durbin's quote sums up what all the top Dems are saying now “He really should spare himself, and his friends and family what he’s about to go through.”

Is Cohen purchasable? I mean, if he is, the longer he waits up to a point, the higher the price no?

Some sources are saying that he'd like some compensation for the $2M+ he pumped in the race. Other sources are saying that money won't be involved.

The irony is that the IL Constitution gives the legislature the power to pass a law that would have tickets run in the primary as well as the general. Even after the 1986 debacle, they did not invoke that provision to change the law. Yet, here we are again.

[muon2]

The pressure to force Cohen off the ballot as LG seems to be at a fever pitch. Sen. Durbin's quote sums up what all the top Dems are saying now “He really should spare himself, and his friends and family what he’s about to go through.”

Is Cohen purchasable? I mean, if he is, the longer he waits up to a point, the higher the price no?

Some sources are saying that he'd like some compensation for the $2M+ he pumped in the race. Other sources are saying that money won't be involved.

The irony is that the IL Constitution gives the legislature the power to pass a law that would have tickets run in the primary as well as the general. Even after the 1986 debacle, they did not invoke that provision to change the law. Yet, here we are again.

Couldn't you guys just shove that through in the next month or so?

Too late. The primary has already passed.

[muon2]

The pressure to force Cohen off the ballot as LG seems to be at a fever pitch. Sen. Durbin's quote sums up what all the top Dems are saying now “He really should spare himself, and his friends and family what he’s about to go through.”

Is Cohen purchasable? I mean, if he is, the longer he waits up to a point, the higher the price no?

Some sources are saying that he'd like some compensation for the $2M+ he pumped in the race. Other sources are saying that money won't be involved.

The irony is that the IL Constitution gives the legislature the power to pass a law that would have tickets run in the primary as well as the general. Even after the 1986 debacle, they did not invoke that provision to change the law. Yet, here we are again.

Couldn't you guys just shove that through in the next month or so?

Too late. The primary has already passed.

But couldn't you just change the law to say that the Governor and Lt. Governor primary winners run separately in the general? There'd be no need to nullify the primary.

No luck there. The IL Const. Art V sect 4, clearly states that one vote is cast jointly for the nominees.

[muon2]

I could see one running for city council or a state senate seat and not having one's past catch up to you, but Lt. Governor of one of the biggest states in the country?  I understand being ambitious, but, first of all, if you have a record like that, you have a certain ceiling for the highest office you can achieve.  Secondly if you want to reach said ceiling, you can't go straight from business (without paying child support) to high political office, you need to establish a political record to prove that's all behind you.

I really cannot understand what's going on here, and it really doesn't make me have much faith in the Democrats to be able to do well statewide in 2010.  Obama will need to figure out who he is fundamentally and what he wants to do if he wants his old Senate seat to remain Democrat.

Does anyone know why all this information suddenly showed up AFTER the election?

No one gave him much chance with 4 legislators in the race. What little came out was passed over by media sources. The senate and gov races were so much bigger that it drew the attention of the media, money, and voters from the lt gov.

[muon2]

http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/2035800,cohen-quinn-hynes-lt-gov-020810.article

Hynes doesn't want it and part of his campaign platform was abolishing the office. Methinks they'll go with the State Representative that got second in the primary.

The state party chair supported Turner, but there are some downsides. Turner would make it an all-Chicago slate for statewide offices. This was a theme for the GOP, and Hynes beat Quinn downstate. Many Dems would like to see a downstater to be more competitive there and help downballot races.

The other downside is legislative. The Dem state chair is also the Speaker of the House. Rep Turner is a longtime rival of Sen Hendon on the west side of Chicago. Putting Turner in could crate strain between the House and Senate that may not be desired this year.

[muon2]

The pressure to force Cohen off the ballot as LG seems to be at a fever pitch. Sen. Durbin's quote sums up what all the top Dems are saying now “He really should spare himself, and his friends and family what he’s about to go through.”

Is Cohen purchasable? I mean, if he is, the longer he waits up to a point, the higher the price no?

Some sources are saying that he'd like some compensation for the $2M+ he pumped in the race. Other sources are saying that money won't be involved.

The irony is that the IL Constitution gives the legislature the power to pass a law that would have tickets run in the primary as well as the general. Even after the 1986 debacle, they did not invoke that provision to change the law. Yet, here we are again.

Couldn't you guys just shove that through in the next month or so?

Too late. The primary has already passed.

But at least it'll be corrected for next time, right?

IL Speaker filed a constitutional amendment to abolish the office entirely this week. If that passes, there will be nothing to correct.

[muon2]

So what's going on with the Democratic Lt. Governor nomination?

The state central committee of the DPI is schedule to meet in a couple of weeks. They can appoint someone from the 70+ applicants, they can appoint someone who didn't apply, or they can leave it vacant.

[muon2]

The primary has been over a long time. The GOP sorted out their winner a couple of weeks ago. Today the Dems resolved the problem created by their LT Gov winner and his subsequent withdrawal. They selected Sheila Simon, a law professor and daughter of the late US Sen Paul Simon. This was Gov Quinn's preference.

Quinn has bridges to be mended with the Black community since they passed over State Rep Art Turner who was the runner-up for Lt Gov in Feb. Turner's campaign bused 200 supporters to Springfield today to try to sway the Democratic State Central Committee.

[muon2]

Swing State Project summarizes my concerns:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

In the end this was about the person Quinn wanted. The 200+ applicants really didn't matter though it made for lots of interesting local stories. The candidates who campaigned in the primary didn't matter either.

Quinn wanted a running mate he was comfortable with. His first choice, Tammy Duckworth, turned him down weeks ago to stay in DC. His second choice, State Sen. Susan Garrett, wouldn't back his tax plan, and made some comments last week while she was being touted that turned him off. That brought him to Friday when he endorsed Simon for the spot.