Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[MaxQue]

What happened to Kari Lake Shelly Glover?

[MaxQue]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

It's more him being a Native.

[MaxQue]

Spending 200 million dollars on doing that is simply absurd. There's no way to justify it unless you think resources can magically pop out of existence.

I mean i doubt it would be nearly so expensive, but your point is moot because that's not even PC rationale. Look at the image: they are against it "for health and safety reasons", whatever that even means

 

https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/study-finds-search-for-womens-remains-at-landfill-could-take-years-cost-up-to-184m
It's pretty obvious that it's reference to the fact that searching the landfill isn't risk free, it exposes the workers put on it to danger from machinery as well toxic chemicals.

And the PCs are bringing up cost as part of the reason it's a pretty good argument too regarding the NDPs lack of fiscal responsibility if they're willing to waste money like this.

Why are you willing to put $184 million and Manitoba workers at risk for a search without a guarantee?" she asked, making reference to the maximum cost

Should mining be banned? It exposes miners to dangerous machinery, after all.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1709052207700549823?t=Iijf2hspPgDL0KF...

Forum has not polled the race before, so less relevant than the other two.

Their translation of votes to seats seems extreme,  but it's kinda what I alluded to above.  Electoral sorting of the partisan coalitions has seemingly made the duopolistic left party more efficient at converting votes to seats, as seen most recently in Alberta.

 I personally would no be surprised if the overall vote resembled this poll and the PCs only ended up with a few more seats than they projected, but that's my opinion.

The thing that is wierd is the sheer number of seats in Winnipeg, especially swing seats. They are all left of the average result, too

[MaxQue]

Pollsters have the Liberals anywhere from 15% (that seems too high) to 9%, the 10-12% is probably more accurate and closer to 10. The party does not have a full slate, which is trending to the advantage of the NDP, and b/c this has become so polarizing (PCs that's on you) progressives are trending NDP.

Of the three seats, I think Lamont's (St. Boniface) is the weakest. Tyndall Park is only held by the Liberals since it's a Lamaroux, BUT if there is a massive swing to the NDP she could lose. But I think she has to be favoured just on name alone. The NDP are running a filipino who make up the largest minority group in the riding. These two seats have only been held by the liberals since 2016 and 2017. If the NDP are polling well over 50% in Winnipeg, these seats have to been as in play, even with Lamaroux's name.

And there, the NDP running a proeminent French Métis teacher, in a riding that's 31% French.

In other news, the Green candidate in Steinbach withdrew, any vote in her favour will be voided and we will get late in Selkirk, as they can't use electronic voting due to a town-wide power outage and are using paper ballots.

[MaxQue]

Elections Manitoba reports roughly 60000 electors voted between 8AM and noon.

[MaxQue]

Final polls no surprise.  I have watched enough campaigns and behavior of PCs was one that knows they are going to lose and trying to shore up base while NDP looked like a winning one.  Off course I guess we will have to wait to find out, but I expect NDP to win a majority, just a question of how big.  PCs though probably still get over 40% and ironically may get a higher popular vote share than Ford and Legault despite losing (Notley got a higher vote share than both also).

Radio-Canada says that Stefanson did not campaign in Winnipeg between September 22 and yesterday.

[MaxQue]

Elections Manitoba reports roughly 60000 electors voted between 8AM and noon.

That doesn't seem like a whole lot of people voted.

Well, 200790 electors voted early already.

[MaxQue]

127000 electors by "mid afternoon".

EDIT 3:30PM

[MaxQue]

As an aside, I find that election-atlas.ca is giving me "these basemap tiles will no longer be available as of October 31, 2023".  Hope that's addressed once the mod logs in the Manitoba election numbers...

He seems to have switched the maps to OSM, now.

[MaxQue]

For future reference, the threshold to be an official party is 4.

[MaxQue]

127000 electors by "mid afternoon".

EDIT 3:30PM

Still needs 150k more to match 2019's raw vote total. Not sure if it's shaping up to be a busy afternoon.

This could be depressed PC turnout, but I'm going to stick with my gut and say the result will be closer than expected.

I think your gut was wrong.

[MaxQue]

It's early, but the Libs are behind in all their seats.

Actually, no, as there is no result yet in one of them.

[MaxQue]

The PC Premier is currently losing her seat.

[MaxQue]

127000 electors by "mid afternoon".

EDIT 3:30PM

Still needs 150k more to match 2019's raw vote total. Not sure if it's shaping up to be a busy afternoon.

This could be depressed PC turnout, but I'm going to stick with my gut and say the result will be closer than expected.

I think your gut was wrong.

The popular vote is close 😅 I'm saying my gut follows Lichtman Keys to the White House rules, at this point in the night at least

Well, the NDP lead was quite wider when I said that.

[MaxQue]

Seems to be yet another failure of electronic voting.

[MaxQue]

Not many people care cause the victory is projected,  but the election reporting system seemingly broke again a few minutes back.

Seems to be back.

[MaxQue]

Estimated turnout of 48%, results website is down again.

[MaxQue]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

[MaxQue]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

CBC shows 2 polls left in Selkirk, about 600 votes separate the PCs and NDP. Any real chance this could flip to NDP?

looks like 7 seats undeclared, with 1 poll, is that advanced? Brandon390 West is close, less then 100 votes separated the PCs and NDP. Lagimodière and Waverley are both just over 100 separating the two.

I think CBC has given up on updating results.

On their uncalled seats, looking at the official results platform:
Dauphin: The official results there actually have less votes (and are missing 1 day poll and the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings); NDP lead 344
McPhillips: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 309
Waverley: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 122
Lagimodière: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 106
Selkirk: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 474 (so it means the missing poll is in)
Brandon West: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 97 (which I think means a recount if the NDP candidate wants it)
Tuxedo: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 265

[MaxQue]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

CBC shows 2 polls left in Selkirk, about 600 votes separate the PCs and NDP. Any real chance this could flip to NDP?

looks like 7 seats undeclared, with 1 poll, is that advanced? Brandon390 West is close, less then 100 votes separated the PCs and NDP. Lagimodière and Waverley are both just over 100 separating the two.

I think CBC has given up on updating results.

On their uncalled seats, looking at the official results platform:
Dauphin: The official results there actually have less votes (and are missing 1 day poll and the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings); NDP lead 344
McPhillips: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 309
Waverley: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 122
Lagimodière: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; NDP lead 106
Selkirk: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 474 (so it means the missing poll is in)
Brandon West: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 97 (which I think means a recount if the NDP candidate wants it)
Tuxedo: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings; PC lead 265

And now, with only the out of riding advance votes casted in Flin Flon left,
Dauphin: NDP +344 -> NDP +332
McPhillips: NDP +309 -> NDP +333
Waverley: NDP +122 -> NDP +119
Lagimodière: NDP +106 -> NDP +103
Selkirk: PC +474 -> PC +467
Brandon West: PC +97 -> PC +95
Tuxedo: PC +265 -> PC +263

[MaxQue]

No change at all in vote margins with the last results coming of Flin Flon advance out of riding votes.

Brandon West I assume will go to a recount but either way, good result for the NDP

If the NDP requests one, the threshold for automatic recount is 50 votes. It doesn't look like the candidate is interested in one.