Alberta election 2023

[MaxQue]

In 2008, the NDP had 2 seats and 8%; in 2012, 4 seats and 10%. So, the 2015 election happened a bit out of nowhere.

[MaxQue]

Here are the percentage majorities in Calgary:
McCall: -13.5
Mountain View: -10.6
Buffalo: -9.7
Falconridge: 0.7
Currie: 0.8
Varsity: 2.8
Klein: 7.7
North East: 13.7
Cross: 16.9
Beddington: 17.4
East: 17.5
Edgemont: 18.8
Acadia: 19.7
Elbow: 20.8 (but AP was 2nd with 30%)
Bow: 21.7
Glenmore: 23.6
North: 24.1
Foothills: 24.6
North West: 24.9
Peigan: 30.6
Fish Creek: 32.7
Hays: 37.8
Shaw: 39.7
West: 40.6
Lougheed: 41.2
South East: 42.2

So, 23-3 for UCP last time. On uniform swing, they would win all seats up to Glenmore with the Leger poll (16-10 for the NDP) and all the seats up to Fish Creek with the Navigator poll (21-5 for the NDP). A tied popular vote would get them up to Bow (15-11 for the NDP).

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/SyntheticusAlt/status/1662232593776136192https://twitter.com/RachelNotley/status/1662251066275004421
This election got me like fr:

Bryan Breguet is a hack who left the CBC because their ethics code wouldn't let him become a Poilievre simp.

[MaxQue]

Also, the real NDP majority in Banff should be above 199, unless you believe that the NDP 2% of the mobile vote and that the Solidarity Movement got 39% of the mobile vote.

[MaxQue]

I wonder if the NDP won the Jasper polls in Yellowhead

The only election day poll the NDP won was in Jasper and they got 78% in it.

[MaxQue]

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/gunter-too-many-right-of-centre-alberta-conservatives-stayed-home-on-election-day

GUNTER: Too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives stayed home on election day.

You know what "too many right-of-centre Alberta conservatives" did?  They sorted themselves out of the ridings where they could have made a difference.  They moved to rural/small-town/exurban Alberta and only made those safe constituencies safer, while Calgary continued on its path t/w being the People's Republic of NenshiGondek...

Oh, come on:
2023 total votes: 1,763,406
2019 total vote:  1,906,366

I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that the vast majority of people who voted in 2019 but not in either 2015 or in 2023 came out to vote UCP in 2019 in order to turf the NDP.

But, and here's where my addressing Lorne Gunter kicks in: how "right-of-centre Alberta conservative" were they, if Danielle Smith wasn't good enough for them?  The shortfall would have been in more of a non-Notley "middle vote", closer to the "centre" part of "right-of-centre" than to the "right" part...

By and large they must have been people who didn't vote in 2015 but voted UCP in 2019 and then were unhappy with the UCP government or with Danielle Smith but weren't about to vote NDP either.

That does raise a question: was there a single riding in the province where the actual UCP vote, not the percentage of vote, increased in 2023 over 2019?

This is more interesting trivia than anything, but I know of at least two ridings where the raw UCP vote increased from 2019: Calgary-South East and Edmonton-South West (Kaycee Madu's former seat). Both of these results would basically 100% boil down to population growth, as they both contain numerous quickly-growing suburban communities. Calgary-South East was also a bit of an outlier in 2019 as the Alberta Party candidate, who got almost 20% of the vote, was an incumbent MLA who had crossed the floor from the PCs.

Anyways, in both of those ridings, the UCP gained around 1,000 votes over 2019. But the NDP gained around 5,000 or 6,000 votes over 2019 in each of them.

Going down the list, they also gained votes in:
Calgary-Elbow (+493, NDP+6392; the UCP also went up in vote share, but lost the seat (which was technically vacant). The seat had a AP incumbent in 2019 who polled 2nd 31%)
Calgary-Bhullar-McCall (+201; NDP +391, the UCP also went up in vote share; NDP hold)
Calgary-North-East (+702, NDP +5065, lost in vote share and the seat)
Banff-Kananaskis (+439, NDP +2597, lost in vote share and the seat)
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville (+383, NDP +1650, went up in vote share)
Morinville-St. Albert (+31, NDP +2964, went up in vote share)

So, 8 seats where the raw vote went up, but the NDP had a larger vote increase than them in all 8, the UCP lost vote share in 4 of them and the result in those seats were 3 UCP hold, 1 NDP hold and 4 NDP gains.

[MaxQue]

Fine!

Smaller cities: 1.Brooks-Medicine Hat, 2.Cypress-Medicine Hat, 3.Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, 4.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, 5.Grande Prairie, 6.Grande Prairie-Wapiti, 7.Lethbridge East, 8.Lethbridge West, 9.Red Deer North, 10.Red Deer South

Smaller Cities
Total votes: 184,069
UCP: 110,694, 60.1%
NDP:  66,136, 35.9%

Calgary 'Donut': 1.Airdrie-Cochrane, 2.Airdrie East, 3.Chestermere-Strathmore, 4.Highwood (Okotoks)

Total votes: 102,765
UCP: 66,641, 64.8%
NDP: 33,579, 32.7%

Increase in vote share from 2019
UCP: 31/87 ridings
NDP: 83/87 ridings

Alberta less city of Edmonton
Total Votes: 1,394,593
UCP: 801,123, 57.4%, 49
NDP: 544,518, 39.0%. 18

Alberta less Rural
Total Votes: 1387,557
NDP: 685,771, 49.4%, 37
UCP: 663,126, 47.8%, 30

That Alberta less rural makes no sense.

[MaxQue]

Fine!

Smaller cities: 1.Brooks-Medicine Hat, 2.Cypress-Medicine Hat, 3.Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche, 4.Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo, 5.Grande Prairie, 6.Grande Prairie-Wapiti, 7.Lethbridge East, 8.Lethbridge West, 9.Red Deer North, 10.Red Deer South

Smaller Cities
Total votes: 184,069
UCP: 110,694, 60.1%
NDP:  66,136, 35.9%

Calgary 'Donut': 1.Airdrie-Cochrane, 2.Airdrie East, 3.Chestermere-Strathmore, 4.Highwood (Okotoks)

Total votes: 102,765
UCP: 66,641, 64.8%
NDP: 33,579, 32.7%

Increase in vote share from 2019
UCP: 31/87 ridings
NDP: 83/87 ridings

Alberta less city of Edmonton
Total Votes: 1,394,593
UCP: 801,123, 57.4%, 49
NDP: 544,518, 39.0%. 18

Alberta less Rural
Total Votes: 1387,557
NDP: 685,771, 49.4%, 37
UCP: 663,126, 47.8%, 30

That Alberta less rural makes no sense.

As I said above

If anybody disagrees with riding placements, calculate your own results
Rural: 377,532
UCP: 265,770, 70.4%, 19
NDP:  91,626, 24.3%    1

Rural North: 1.Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock, 2.Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul, 3.Central Peace-Notley, 4.Lesser Slave Lake, 5.Peace River

Rural North: 69,878
UCP: 51,633, 73.9%
NDP: 17,167, 24.6%

Rural Central: 1.Camrose, 2.Drayton Valley-Devon, 3.Drumheller-Stettler, 4.Innisfail-Sylvan Lake, 5.Lac Ste Anne-Parkland, 6.Lacombe-Ponoka, 7.Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin, 8.Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, 9.Vermilion-Lloydminster-Wainwright, 10.West Yellowhead

Rural Central: 204,689
UCP: 145,230, 71.0%
NDP:  46,508, 22.7%

Rural South: 1.Banff-Kananaskis, 2.Cardston-Siksika, 3.Livingstone-McLeod, 4.Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, 5.Taber-Warner

Rural South: 102,965
UCP: 68,907, 66.9%
NDP: 27,951, 27.1%

Fwiw, as a token Albertan on this forum, I think that that list of "true" rural seats does indeed make sense. One could maybe quibble about Banff-Kananaskis, but it really doesn't fit that well anywhere. On balance, I'd consider it to be part of the rural south, albeit an anomalous part.

Interesting, so kind of like Powell River-Sunshine Coast in British Columbia. That area (and riding) isn't that far from North/West Vancouver but it isn't easy to get to Greater Vancouver from Powell River-Sunshine Coast, it's opposite Central/Northern Vancouver Island but takes a fairly long ferry to get there and it's not that far from Northern and Central British Columbia but I'm actually not sure how to get there from Powell River-Sunshine Coast. That area (and riding) is kind of connected to everything and nothing at the same time.

You don't. You either take the ferry to Comox on Vancouver Island or the long road with two ferries that brings you to West Vancouver.

There was a project to build a road to Squamish, according to Wikipedia, but it was cancelled due to requiring 2 tunnels and costing over 5 billions.