New Brunswick provincial election 2020

[MaxQue]

New Brunswick has 15 active covid cases.

I imagine the government is benefiting from a covid bump like most.

The NDP has a 23 yeal old for interim leader who was in a little bit of panic at the prospect of an election. I guess that party won't be a factor.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/nb-interim-ndp-leader-ready-election-1.5682661

"the party planned to hold its leadership vote last August, but only one candidate submitted paperwork to run and she was disqualified" - got to LOL at that, especially since it was *a year ago* now.

They had planned another race in June, but it got postponed due to the health situation (3 people filled, it seems).

[MaxQue]

Former PC minister-turned Independent MLA for Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou Robert Gauvin has been selected as Liberal candidate in Shediac Bay-Dieppe (the vacant riding formely represented by PM Brian Gallant).

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

People's Alliance of New Brunswick won three seats last time and ended up backing the PC minority govt. Hard to forget about them. Expectations are that the NBPA will be cannibalized like what the Tories did to the Lib-Dems in 2015, but we don't have a poll to confirm this.

Also there are independents. Usually these guys are meaningless, especially when there are enough options on the ballot already to satisfy voter concerns and provide outlets for disgruntled voters. However, every now and again you get a serious Indie who tries to make a run for it. The NB NDP's brand is so bad, and kinda been supplanted by the Greens federally as the left's party of choice, that it wouldn't be surprising if Independents beat the NDP in certain seats. If nothing else, there will likely be one or more Independent in every seat, but we still have no guarantee that the NDP will run 49 candidates.

Now, with only a few hours left (it closes at 2PM today), numbers are:
PC: 49
Lib: 45
Grn: 41
PA: 33
NDP: 25
Ind: 5
KISS: 3

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/silasjvbrown/status/1298623436856725504

Interesting to see that there aren't any New Brunswick specific policies here, just your generic provincial NDP stuff.

There must be something he can use to give his candidates to use door to door.

Ehh the NDP are 5th, maybe even 6th, in a four horse race. They know that and therefore are not going to try anything notable.

What is the other party/parties who might finish above the NDP after Tories/Liberals/Greens?

People's Alliance of New Brunswick won three seats last time and ended up backing the PC minority govt. Hard to forget about them. Expectations are that the NBPA will be cannibalized like what the Tories did to the Lib-Dems in 2015, but we don't have a poll to confirm this.

Also there are independents. Usually these guys are meaningless, especially when there are enough options on the ballot already to satisfy voter concerns and provide outlets for disgruntled voters. However, every now and again you get a serious Indie who tries to make a run for it. The NB NDP's brand is so bad, and kinda been supplanted by the Greens federally as the left's party of choice, that it wouldn't be surprising if Independents beat the NDP in certain seats. If nothing else, there will likely be one or more Independent in every seat, but we still have no guarantee that the NDP will run 49 candidates.

Now, with only a few hours left (it closes at 2PM today), numbers are:
PC: 49
Lib: 45
Grn: 41
PA: 33
NDP: 25
Ind: 5
KISS: 3

Now:
PC: 49
Lib: 48 (only missing Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West)
Grn: 42
PA: 35
NDP: 28
Ind: 6
KISS: 4

[MaxQue]

Deadline has passed, so I assume it's final numbers (?)

PC: 49
Lib: 49
Grn: 47
PA: 36
NDP: 30
Ind: 9
KISS: 4