Illinois Redistricting Megathread

[MaxQue]

Lipinski says he's thinking of running

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/greg-hinz-politics/former-illinois-us-rep-dan-lipinski-considers-running-house-again

Lmao, drama already. Who said Illinois politics are stiff and boring?

He will get crushed without incumbency advantage lol

He’s probably considered a quasi-incumbent like David Valadao or Rick Scott.

There seems to be this fallacious assumption that "more marginal seat = better for Lipinski." This is wrong because the areas Lipinski enjoyed crossover support did not vote for him in the primaries. Those ethnic white suburbs backed Newman. The crossover voters are Republicans, and the voters who participate in the Dem primary are analogous to suburban whites in more Liberal parts of the collar. Lipinski won the madigan machine neighborhoods and Hispanics. Exhuming the Hispanic areas and adding in areas he never represented hurts Lipinski's odds at a comeback.

Which was likely her goal. Apparently she leveled a lot of demands and the commission could only follow a handful, especially since she's a freshman. We saw this before in Maryland, where Donna Edwards demanded a lot of the mappers, and they ignored almost all of her wishes in favor of the senior members of the delegation. She likely wanted to remove the Hispanics and add in as much white suburbs the Lipinski never repped as possible. Unable to follow this in full, she gets a weaker seat.

The resulting product though appears to have "taught some sense" as it were, since she criticized the map for removing Hispanic areas from her seat. Probably will change, ironically in a way that makes it more possible for primary battle round 3.

Good analysis. She think she's safe from Lipinski... but now she might lose to Kinzinger. I think she definitely pissed off the machine and they're going after her, even if Mike Madigan is not running it anymore.

I wonder if Lipinski would plan on pulling a Van Drew and switch parties.

That would be an entertaining Republican primary, the honorable Trump-hating conservative Kinzinger versus the former Democratic turncoat likely turned Trumpist (like Van Drew and Rod Blagojevich).

Kinzinger could beat Newman by 12 in this seat. Newman is basically part of the far left which doesn't work in seats like this. Dems really should think twice before approving this map and go back to the drawing board.

Well, Kinzinger is not winning any Republican primary, so that's irrelevent.

[MaxQue]

IL dems sending a message that primarying homophobic congressmen means you're dead to them.

Lipinski would have been screwed by that map too.
If you need 2 Hispanic seats in Chicago, you need to make one that's South Earmuff + hispanic parts of the Newman/Lipinski seat and it's very clear the Latino Caucus would NOT have voted for a map with only one Hispanic seat.