Ohio redistricting thread

[MaxQue]

Blairite's Ohio Map



OH-01
East Cleveland Suburbs, Youngstown, Warren
Currently represented by Tim Ryan and Dave Joyce, although only Ryan lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-02
East Cleveland and Southeast Suburbs
40% black
Currently represented by Marcia Fudge and Dave Joyce.
Safe D

OH-03
West Cleveland and Suburbs
Currently represented by Bob Gibbs, Anthony Gonzalez, Jim Jordan, and Marcy Kaptur, although only Gonzalez lives in the district.
Likely D

OH-04
Akron and Canton
Currently represented by Tim Ryan, Marcia Fudge, Bill Johnson, Bob Gibbs, and Anthony Gonzalez, although none live in the district.
Likely R

OH-05
West Cleveland Suburbs, Sandusky
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur, Bob Gibbs, and Jim Jordan, although none live in the district.
Likely R

OH-06
Toledo
Currently represented by Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta
Likely R

OH-07
Mansfield, Wooster, Canton
Currently represented by Bill Johnston, Bob Gibbs, Troy Balderson, and Anthony Gonzalez, although only Gibbs lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-08
Lancaster, Zanesville, Athens
Currently represented by Troy Balderson, Steve Stivers, and Bill Johnson, although only Balderson and Johnson live in the district.
Safe R

OH-09
Marion, Lima, Urbana
Currently represented by Jim Jordan, Bob Latta, and Warren Davidson, although only only Jordan and Davidson live in the district.
Safe R

OH-10
North and West Columbus suburbs
Currently represented by Jim Jordan, Troy Balderson, Joyce Beatty, and Steve Stivers, although only Stivers lives in the district.
Tossup

OH-11
Columbus
Currently represented by Joyce Beatty and Steve Stivers, although only Stivers lives in the district.
Safe D

OH-12
Springfield, Xenia, Kettering
Currently represented by Steve Chabot, Warren Davidson, Mike Turner, and Steve Stivers, although only none live in the district.
Safe R

OH-13
Hamilton, Middletown, Dayton
Currently represented by Warren Davidson and Mike Turner, although only Turner lives in the district.
Safe R

OH-14
Chillicothe, Portsmouth, Hillsboro
Currently represented by Brad Wenstrup, Bill Johnson, Mike Turner, and Steve Stivers, although none live in the district.
Safe R

OH-15
Cincinnati
Currently represented by Steve Chabot and Brad Wenstrup
Likely D

Summary:
2 safe D
2 likely D
1 tossup
3 likely R
7 safe R

I think the tossup becomes a pretty strongly Dem district with 2020 numbers, as it drops the non Delaware/Franklin portion and is trending left. All in all, I think this would generally be a 10-5 map through the decade.

I don't think spilling small counties in the way you did is legal under current law.

[MaxQue]

here is my best attempt at a ~fair map~, it's 9-6 trump but probably 10-5 R in the 2020s

OH-01: Obama +8 | Obama +8 | Clinton +12
OH-02: McCain +28 | Romney +32 | Trump +33
OH-03: Obama +34 | Obama +39 | Clinton +36
OH-04: McCain +17 | Romney +20 | Trump +41
OH-05: Obama +21 | Obama +20 | Clinton +3
OH-06: McCain +3 | Romney +8 | Trump +38
OH-07: Obama +12 | Obama +8 | Trump +10
OH-08: McCain +26 | Romney +33 | Trump +51
OH-09: Obama +5 | Obama +2 | Trump +7
OH-10: Obama +2 | Obama +1 | Trump +6
OH-11: Obama +57 | Obama +61 | Clinton +54
OH-12: McCain +3 | Romney +5 | Clinton +6
OH-13: Obama +17 | Obama +17 | Trump +10
OH-14: Obama +8 | Obama +5 | Clinton +4
OH-15: McCain +19 | Romney +18 | Trump +42

This is actually a pretty good map. It keeps COIs rather intact, and it gives Democrats at least the opportunity to recover some seats if they can win him back Obama - Trump voters. If they can't, they probably don't deserve to pick up many more seats than this map allows. I would love to know what Sherrod Brown's numbers under this map were.

Can I also just say that, while occasionally throwing out the occasional Just for kicks extreme gerrymander Maps is one thing, to have folks like Idaho conservative, krazen back in the day, and others aggressively and repeatedly push for extreme gerrymander favoring their party like rrh does strikes me as a grotesquely tasteless middle finger towards democracy at best, and reading it on these threads at worse sounds like some type of political snuff porn.

The moderators on RRH will literally ban posters for posting Dem Gerrymanders, but then they'll congratulate people for their Republican gerrymanders.

Too bad we are stuck with far-right enabling mods here.

[MaxQue]

That 8th district is horrible.

[MaxQue]

Who becomes vulnerable in the GOP if the OH Supreme Court rejects the GOP congressional maps and orders a fair redraw. I would guess we have something like 10-5 R with OH-1 as a Cincy D vote sink while OH-12 goes from red to leaning D along with OH-13 or 14 becoming a D leaning Cleveland suburbs seat.

How realistic is it for the OHSC to even get involved? Are they generally objective or are they full-on GOP hacks themselves?

It's 4-3 GOP and the Chief Justice is GOP, but not a fan of gerrymandering.

[MaxQue]

The lawsuit challenging OH’s congressional map will go back to the OH Supreme Court which now has a conservative majority.

It also had one before.

[MaxQue]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

[MaxQue]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

I think in hindsight, it would've been smart for the Dems to give the current map their votes to lock it in place for the decade rather than allowing a redraw that could produce a worse map. The only way OH Dems will get a better map this decade is if a commission gets on the ballot and passes so having a subpar congressional map in the meantime is better than an extreme 13-2 map.

The thing is, they thought it was a 13-2 map then. The Cincinnati seat was no sure gain, Marcy Kaptur looked like a goner and it was assumed the Republicans would gain the Ryan seat (hence why he ran for Senate).

The fact it ended 10-5 was quite a surprise, actually.

[MaxQue]

Will the Ohio Legislature be as hogish as the NYS one was (the exact same legal issue is in play)? Not all partisan hack judges are complete whores.  Some even have some ethics to give some consideration to their oath of office.

Nah, this court is gonna rubberstamp whatever this legislature draws. We know for a fact that 3/4 Republican judges will and I don't see any reason why Deters would be any different. This was almost certainly a huge reason that they put partisan affiliation for OHSC judges on the ballot to begin with, no chance they faceplant at the one yard line here.

If there is any hope for a fair(ish) Ohio, it is that it is *possible* that DeWine and the House Speaker, who was elected with Democratic support, might side with the minority leaders for a 4/7 majority on the commission.

Deters is worse than the folks already on the Court.

Is there any chance the court intentionally overturns the current map to allow a more ergregious GOP gerrymander to stand? The current map honestly isn't all that bad for Dems considering the GOP could draw a 13-2 or 12-1-2 that complies with the state redistricting rules. I think the current map was drawn under the premise 2022 would be a good year for Republicans and would produce 13-2, and long term shifts keep it 12-3 at worse for the GOP. That backfired.

Rlly hope a commission will be able to pass for 2024

The current map was for 2022 only, per state laws.

I think in hindsight, it would've been smart for the Dems to give the current map their votes to lock it in place for the decade rather than allowing a redraw that could produce a worse map. The only way OH Dems will get a better map this decade is if a commission gets on the ballot and passes so having a subpar congressional map in the meantime is better than an extreme 13-2 map.

The thing is, they thought it was a 13-2 map then. The Cincinnati seat was no sure gain, Marcy Kaptur looked like a goner and it was assumed the Republicans would gain the Ryan seat (hence why he ran for Senate).

The fact it ended 10-5 was quite a surprise, actually.

Eh, I think they thought it was a 10-3 map.  Chabot was always unlikely to win and I’m not really sure why so many prognosticators thought he was favored. 

Constant downballot underperformance in Cincinnati?

[MaxQue]

You guys realize that the State House Speaker, Jason Stephens, was elected by the entire OH House Democratic Caucus teaming up with ~1/3 of the OH House Republican Caucus to block the other 2/3s of the OH House Republican Caucus from electing the Republican leadership team, right?  A major part of that deal was that Stephens would work extremely closely with Democrats on redistricting.  Democrats could kill Stephens’ speakership at any time by pulling their support if he tries to renege.  There is no appetite among the Republicans who matter in the State House for the sort of maximalist RRH-fantasy 10-2 maps that folks are posting.

Plus, Ohio Republicans in general aren’t in the same sort of “f*** you” mood over redistricting that NC Republicans are or rather, there is still real fear that a non-BS fair redistricting amendment might get passed.  

While neither is the most likely outcome, even a least change map is more likely than a 13-2 at this point.  My guess is we end up with a 10-3-2 map with a competitive-ish seat that is still Republican-leaning enough seat to sink Sykes (and trending R enough that it won’t stay competitive much longer) and a seat that easily flips once Kaptur retires.

Also bare in mind that any map that puts most of Wood County in Kaptur’s district, the city of Troy and/or its southern suburbs in either Turner’s district or the same district as Urbana, puts Zanesville and Marietta in the same district, or puts Rocky River in a non-Safe R seat is a non-starter as it will piss off the various Republican Congressmen.  Bowling Green, Urbana, Dayton, Troy and its southern suburbs, Rocky River, Hillsboro, Marietta, Zanesville, South Russell, and whatever south or west Columbus precinct Mike Carey lives in all need to be in different Safe R districts.  

Technically, the House Speaker + the two Dem appointments only adds to 3/7 and is still beaten by the Senate Speaker appointment + DeWine + Attorney General + LaRose (who will push for maximal gain to help his Senate primary campaign).

[MaxQue]

After some final hiccups, the proposed amendment has finally been cleared for signature gathering:

The Ohio Ballot Board, led by Secretary of State Frank LaRose, voted Monday to advance the proposal for the second time after organizers restarted the process because of a typographical error in the summary of the petition. In both cases, the board could have split the proposal into multiple issues, requiring the campaign to collect hundreds of thousands of signatures for each one.

But, as it did in October, the board took a unanimous and bipartisan vote at the Ohio Statehouse to let the proposal advance as a single issue. Don McTigue, an attorney representing the backers of the proposal, told the ballot board that only the typo in the summary was fixed and that the amendment itself was unchanged.

Citizens Not Politicians, the group backing the amendment, now can begin the process of collecting more than 400,000 signatures from 44 of 88 Ohio counties before a July deadline to qualify for the November 2024 ballot.

As mentioned before, it would create a 15-member commission (5D-5R-5I). Any act of the commission would require 9 votes (and at least two each of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents). The amendment also requires the commission to redraw the lines in 2025. From what it looks like, it does appear to place proportionality as the highest consideration after meeting all federal requirements (Constitution and federal law).

How are the independents selected?

All 15 positions appointed by a commission of 4 retired judges (2 of each party), themselves appointed by the 4 members of the Ballot Board appointed by the State Legislature.

[MaxQue]

After some final hiccups, the proposed amendment has finally been cleared for signature gathering:

The Ohio Ballot Board, led by Secretary of State Frank LaRose, voted Monday to advance the proposal for the second time after organizers restarted the process because of a typographical error in the summary of the petition. In both cases, the board could have split the proposal into multiple issues, requiring the campaign to collect hundreds of thousands of signatures for each one.

But, as it did in October, the board took a unanimous and bipartisan vote at the Ohio Statehouse to let the proposal advance as a single issue. Don McTigue, an attorney representing the backers of the proposal, told the ballot board that only the typo in the summary was fixed and that the amendment itself was unchanged.

Citizens Not Politicians, the group backing the amendment, now can begin the process of collecting more than 400,000 signatures from 44 of 88 Ohio counties before a July deadline to qualify for the November 2024 ballot.

As mentioned before, it would create a 15-member commission (5D-5R-5I). Any act of the commission would require 9 votes (and at least two each of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents). The amendment also requires the commission to redraw the lines in 2025. From what it looks like, it does appear to place proportionality as the highest consideration after meeting all federal requirements (Constitution and federal law).

How are the independents selected?

All 15 positions appointed by a commission of 4 retired judges (2 of each party), themselves appointed by the 4 members of the Ballot Board appointed by the State Legislature.

Wouldn’t the state legislature just appoint Republicans and DINOs to the ballot board? 

Appointments are made by both State Majority leaders (one each) and the State Minority Leader (one each).