NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[MaxQue]

I'm unclear what mines in Timmins-James Bay have to do with Paris Agreement.

Oil extraction and transportation are a target, not so much mineral mining.

[MaxQue]

Northern Ontario is much more like Quebec in that they have a do whatever you want / be who you are libertarian attitude towards things like sexuality/race, and a lot of other things. They think everyone should be treated equally (read "same"), which may not always be equitable.  I do think Singh's politics align much more with the North than Angus' do.  It is not uncommon to hear people in Timmins say they feel like they don't get much representation because Angus is always worrying about the "natives" (a word still used by Indigenous and white/non indigenous in the north).  On the surface is sounds racist, but it is much more a reflection of the problem with creating these huge ridings, and grouping urban cities with Aboriginal communities.

Well, it's the exact same here in Abitibi or in Northern Quebec.

We feel forgotten by government and are far from big centers, so anybody choosing to move and live here is very welcomed.

Same point with cities being more right-wing than rural areas too (except Rouyn, but it's a student city with significant pockets of poverty).

[MaxQue]

So why isn't Singh "catching fire", so to speak? He seems like an obvious front-runner for the NDP leadership, especially since he seems to have the charisma that the other candidates lack.

Well, if someone wants charisma over anything else, they'll vote Trudeau.

[MaxQue]

Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

And ironically, Angus is the only one I can see taking seats off the *Conservatives*.

That's interesting, and maybe true on paper, but are there any ridings in particular you can think of? I'm thinking he could have appeal in Tory ridings in Northern Ontario and SW Ontario, and maybe urban Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Maybe some parts in BC.

In general, I think of Angus as having the most "Sanders Republican" reach, i.e. the likeliest to channel a "Tommy Douglas traditionalist" dynamic, or to crack the rural-west firewall even Layton couldn't breach.  That is, unless CPC ridings in the West are simply too far gone at this point.

And within his own constituency, he's tended to do better in rural Timiskaming than in urban Timmins.

Well, that's the general pattern in Northern Ontario and Quebec. "Rural" areas on the left, cities on right.

[MaxQue]

And within his own constituency, he's tended to do better in rural Timiskaming than in urban Timmins.

Well, that's the general pattern in Northern Ontario and Quebec. "Rural" areas on the left, cities on right.

Or more like: non-reserve rural/small-town "populist", cities "establishment".  A bit like how areas which favoured Reform over PC in the 90s morphed into having outsize Layton-era NDP (and/or undersize Liberal) shares.

What's interesting about Angus's Timiskaming clout is that it'd be like the NDP outperforming *today* in rural Saskatchewan.

Timiskaming is nothing like rural Saskatchewan, through.

[MaxQue]

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

I would say it's Singh and Angus inability to understand Quebec isn't English Canada that's disgusting.

[MaxQue]

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

I would say it's Singh and Angus inability to understand Quebec isn't English Canada that's disgusting.

What's there not to get? There's no magic 'it's ok to discriminate" card that Quebec gets to play because it's special.

Banning using a government job to prozelytisation ends isn't discrimination. I support grandfathering current employees, through.

[MaxQue]

Interesting poll from Angus Reid: http://angusreid.org/new-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh/

Some highlights:

-69% could vote for a Sikh man who wears a turban & kirpan (only 53% of Quebecers)
-78% of 2015 NDP voters could so so (higher than the Liberals!)
-Singh has a +34% approval rating!! (60-26)
-54% think Singh's religion will hurt the NDP's electoral chances [good thing most Canadians aren't political strategists] 

Basically, there is room to grow for the NDP under Singh, but not so much in Quebec

I would say 53% is higher than the NDP ever got and it can only go up, given how sikhs are unknown in Quebec.

[MaxQue]

I think the NDP was going to be in a tough bind to hold the 16 seats they won in Quebec no matter what.  It is more can they make gains in BC and Ontario and perhaps pick up a few in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (note at the last federal election, provincial NDP was doing really badly in both provinces but has somewhat rebounded since).  Also any seats they do win in Quebec will probably in Montreal rather than the regions of Quebec and in Montreal people are a lot more open to diverse candidates than in the regions of Quebec.  Also much like Quebec Solidaire, their support in Quebec will likely be strongest amongst millennials who are far more open and tolerant as opposed to the older pure laine who after Jack Layton died probably weren't going to go NDP again anyways.

I don't feel much bigotry in my remote region of Quebec. It's more in rural area near to Quebec City.