Canadian by-elections, 2013

[MaxQue]

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/montreal/201308/20/01-4681391-viau-deux-acteurs-municipaux-lorgnent-linvestiture-du-plq.php

Misleading title, but there is one person waiting to be candidate and two thinking about being the Liberal candidate in Viau.

Monsef Derraji, president of Vision Montreal is in, despite living in Robert-Baldwin, in West Island.

Frantz Benjamin, city councillor for Saint-Michel (one of the first to leave UM, now pro-Coderre) is also thinking about it and is saying than people ask him to run.

Also, Alain Paquet, former Delegate Finance Minister and MNA for Laval-des-Rapides from 2003 to 2012 (he lost against the former student leader Léo Bureau-Blouin) may run here. It's quite sure he will run in the next election, but he didn't decided where yet.

[MaxQue]

Stephane Moraille has been nominated for the Dippers in Bourassa. Mulcair will campaign with him tomorrow.

Her, Rogue.

[MaxQue]

The Bloc québécois has a candidate for Bourassa. Daniel Duranleau was a school board commissioner in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve for a decade and president of the Montreal school board for a year before he quit last summer. He admits Montréal-Nord is not the neighbourhood in Montreal he knows best.

Sounds like a strong candidate on paper... but would be a better candidate FOR Hochelaga.

Given all the scandals about school boards recently, not at all.

[MaxQue]

The Bloc québécois has a candidate for Bourassa. Daniel Duranleau was a school board commissioner in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve for a decade and president of the Montreal school board for a year before he quit last summer. He admits Montréal-Nord is not the neighbourhood in Montreal he knows best.

Sounds like a strong candidate on paper... but would be a better candidate FOR Hochelaga.

Given all the scandals about school boards recently, not at all.

There have been Council and School board scandals? wow, did not know that? what's the issue with the Board?

School boards are known in the previous years for harsh tax hikes and ridiculous expenses on head offices and leadership (like formation trips for the high leadership, brand new head offices, new computers every years), while cutting in schools, teachers and have schools with mold and leaky roofs.

Most likely, they will be abolished in the coming years.

[MaxQue]

Another vacancy I totally missed: Morris, MB. Apparently the seat has been open since February with no by-election called yet.

Sounds like you're not the only one who totally missed it... has anyone nudged the Speaker recently?

In Canada, by-elections are called by the PM.

[MaxQue]

Another vacancy I totally missed: Morris, MB. Apparently the seat has been open since February with no by-election called yet.

Sounds like you're not the only one who totally missed it... has anyone nudged the Speaker recently?

In Canada, by-elections are called by the PM.

In this case, Premier, but still - surely there is a Constitutional requirement of a maximum length of time a seat can remain empty?

Each province has its own laws. Manitoba doesn't seem to have a law on that subject.

[MaxQue]

The problem for the NDP in Toronto Centre and Bourassa, is that these are prime "Trudeau-Liberal" seats. They are urban progressive ridings- they care more about social values than economic issues, and are full of the types to fall for the Trudeau cult. If Jack were still around, these seats would be prime pick up opportunities.

Bourassa isn't an urban progressive riding, it's an immigrant area, parts of it are quite poor.

[MaxQue]

The Local Free-Enterprisers

What a ridiculous name.
"Oligopoles and Big Corporations Friends", rather, would be more accurate.

[MaxQue]

The Local Free-Enterprisers

What a ridiculous name.
"Oligopoles and Big Corporations Friends", rather, would be more accurate.

I don't go around calling you the Union-Trog Party do I?

No, but I do not call my party "Working Class Party" or "Union Party", as it is silly and ridiculous.
I come from a small business owner family and sadly no party ever really attemped to address the issues.

Big businesses have most contracts, are much less taxed than us (they have all sort of loopholes) and can use their considerable money to do more concentration (so, less choice and poorer quality for customer and death of local choices which are good for the local economy).

I doubt NDP will help us either (most small businesses are not-unionsed), but claiming than Liberals or Conservatives are any better for the real free entreprise, which is small or family businesses is just wrong.

[MaxQue]

The Local Free-Enterprisers

What a ridiculous name.
"Oligopoles and Big Corporations Friends", rather, would be more accurate.

I don't go around calling you the Union-Trog Party do I?

No, but I do not call my party "Working Class Party" or "Union Party", as it is silly and ridiculous.
I come from a small business owner family and sadly no party ever really attemped to address the issues.

Big businesses have most contracts, are much less taxed than us (they have all sort of loopholes) and can use their considerable money to do more concentration (so, less choice and poorer quality for customer and death of local choices which are good for the local economy).

I doubt NDP will help us either (most small businesses are not-unionsed), but claiming than Liberals or Conservatives are any better for the real free entreprise, which is small or family businesses is just wrong.

I'm sorry you don't like big business, but terms like 'Free Enterprise Coalition' exist for a reason, and that reason is that the BC Liberal Party is composed of many people who are not particularly well described as 'Liberals'

I have nothing against big business in itself, but I pretty much always got better service and/or price from the same service from small business. Perhaps it's different in a big city like Vancouver, but in remote areas, there is a clear difference.

Anyways, you should love small business, as they increase the competition, no? More business, more choice, more competition?

I understand why BC Liberals are brandng them "Free Enterprise Coalition", but it's not stopping be to find that silly (as most branding, honestly).

[MaxQue]

I also think than no seat will change hands.
I expect easy wins in Provencher (Conservative) and Toronto-Centre (Liberal), and close wins in Brandon-Souris (Conservative) and Bourassa (Coderre had an huge personnal vote).

[MaxQue]

I always make sure to keep my address up to date with my partisan friends. 

I never, but my party always manage to send me mail wherever I live. It's creepy.

[MaxQue]

Den Tandt saying on Twitter that his sources indicate Tory trouble in Brandon.

Well, I think it's clear than Liberals will win proper Brandon. The question is whether Brandon will outvote rural areas or if rural areas will outvote Brandon.

[MaxQue]

Den Tandt/Brandon: Tories have lost Virdis, which he compares to losing suburban Calgary polls. Hatman?

If they lost Virden, the home area of the Conservative candidate and usually safe Conservative area, we are in the landslide indicated by riding polls.

[MaxQue]

Is counting done at each individual polling site? Or is there a central counting location?

Same as the US

But it differs depending on which state and county!

I'm guessing you mean at polling sites?

Counting is done at each polling station, yes.

[MaxQue]

How would one know this with polls in Virden presumably still open and votes not yet counted?

Either it's intox, either someone in a party has talked. They often know that kind of thing, with their GOTV and pointing records.

[MaxQue]

Also, 46-40 Lib-Cons in Brandon, 48-35 Cons-Lib in Provencher.

EDIT: Typo in the order in Brandon.

[MaxQue]

And Conservatives takes the lead in Brandon (46-34).

[MaxQue]

Liberals leads 46-35 in Bourassa, Conservatives leads 47-39 in Provencher and 54-35 in Brandon.

[MaxQue]

And NDP takes the lead in Toronto-Centre.

48-32 Lib-NDP in Bourassa
44-43 NDP-Lib in Toronto
45-41 Lib-Cons in Brandon
57-31 Cons-Lib in Provencher

[MaxQue]

Freeland still leads comfortably according to their HQ. Dinsdale up 45-41 in BS. Bourassa is 48-31 Liberal.

Does Freeland HQ is a valable source, or it's based disproportionnaly on Rosedale? Why the difference with Élections Canada?

[MaxQue]

48-32 Lib-NDP in Bourassa
45-41 Lib-NDP in Toronto
44-42 Cons-Lib in Brandon
56-31 Cons-Lib in Provencher

[MaxQue]

48-32 Lib-NDP in Bourassa
47-39 Lib-NDP in Toronto
44-42 Lib-Cons in Brandon
57-31 Cons-Lib in Provencher

[MaxQue]

Freeland's opening up a real lead now.

Random question: what was the last time the Tories lost a previously-held seat in a by-election in Western Canada?

1998. Liberal gain over Reform in Port-Moody-Coquiltam.

[MaxQue]

When's the last time the Liberals held Brandon--Souris?

1993-1997 term, after the PC meltdown and when Reform wasn't well implanted yet in Manitoba.