Canadian by-elections, 2013

[MaxQue]

As you can see, the NDP have never held the riding.

That's why I hope a good result, not a win.

[MaxQue]

Ugh, one of the independant is the expelled racist candidate of last election.

[MaxQue]

A boring middle aged white man. How exciting.

Who cares? I'm pretty sure than OLP will heavilly campaign on Wynne in Church/Wesselley.

[MaxQue]

For some reason Windsor is counting much faster than the others.

Lower turnout?

[MaxQue]

Looks like you guys will take London at this rate. For some reason Ottawa is still a Liberal lead- any clues on that?

PC underperformed?

[MaxQue]

Consistent 7-9 point Liberal lead in Ottawa South. Complete polling FUBAR if that holds.

Ot it's just PC GOTV which is bad?

[MaxQue]

Consistent 7-9 point Liberal lead in Ottawa South. Complete polling FUBAR if that holds.

Ot it's just PC GOTV which is bad?

Perhaps. The PCs never led in Scarborough and were dropping in London, but no excuse for Ottawa.

Well, you know me and you know my convinctions, so I won't complain is PC is looking bad. But, honestly, the issue is perhaps the polling. After Canada 2011, Alberta 2012, Quebec 2012, BC 2013... bad pollinng is really not out of the question.

[MaxQue]

The Liberal "star" candidate in London bombed out. He is at 15%, now.

[MaxQue]

NDP doing well in Scarborough, and that wasn't even his home riding, was it? Perhaps they should run him federally in To-C when the by-election comes up? Or as a replacement for in To-S if she runs for the Mayoralty?

Not To-S, but Trinity-Spadina, Smid.

And I thought than To-C already had a candidate.

[MaxQue]

So, probably NDP 2, LPO 2, PC 1.

[MaxQue]

The real question of the night: How did Al Gretzky get 4% of the vote for the Freedom Party?

Perhaps just his family name.

[MaxQue]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

Won't happen. The useless talking heads wouldn't allow it.

[MaxQue]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

Here, here!

Hear, hear, no?

[MaxQue]

OLP spin: We won 2. PC spin: We gained a Toronto toehold for the first time in 14 years. NDP: We won 2.

OLP rebuke: You lost 3 seats.
PC rebuke: Polls had you winning 4 seats.
NDP rebuke: Being third in all other seats, and in a very distant position in two of them.

[MaxQue]

I seen on LCN (a Quebec news channel) than the rumored Liberal candidate for Bourassa by-election is Emmanuel Dubourg, the Liberal MNA for Viau. He is Haitian.

[MaxQue]

Disgusting.

That is proving than the government and railway companies are in the same bed and than Harper government is fully responsible for Lac-Mégantic accident.

They are cozy with the railway industry.

[MaxQue]

Let's not forget than Coderre was very popular and well-known, so he had a significant personnal vote.

[MaxQue]

Brian Topp?

It would be funny...

I think he has already announced he would not run.

[MaxQue]

Who could it possibly be? No PM city councillor represents any of the riding. And, they wouldn't be that high profile...

The rumor is someone from the TV.

[MaxQue]

How big is "Bran Van 3000" ? I've barely heard of them.

It's popular with the so-called "trendy people".

[MaxQue]

Marois announced than she would call a by-election in Viau next week and PQ wouldn't run a candidate if Couillard is the Liberal candidate.

Great strategy. As Couillard wants to run in Roberval, he will look like if he is afraid of seating in the Assembly. And if he decides to go in Viau, either he will be accused of carpetbagging in Roberval or will stay in Viau, which make a weaker Liberal candidate in Roberval.

[MaxQue]

I really don't know why Couillard's running in Roberval, where the PQ has a 6000-vote plurality. He might think Bourassa '85 where he wins government but loses a seat. Given the pro-incumbent provincial trend it could well be a repeat of John Tory 2007, idiotically moving to a safe government seat and losing both it and his leadership. Another Quebec precedent is Lapalme in '52 when he carpetbagged against Barrette in Joliette and got thumped by 15 points.

He lives in Saint-Félicien and hopes to gain back a seat than Liberals won in 2003, I suppose.

[MaxQue]

Max, will you be making a Viau map, or shall I? If you plan on doing one, it would be nice if you could use my new colour key. 

I'll, then, but what is your new colour key?
I thought it would be boring, but Liberals won 47-24 over PQ (12 for CAQ and QS, 3 for ON, 2 for Greens).

First result under 50% since 1976, too.

[MaxQue]

Well, NDP has nothing to lose.

Most likely, they lose, but they can say it's a Liberal stronghold and the candidate a popular MNA (which isn't really true, through).

If they manage to win, that's a pretty big blow to Liberals and to Trudeau himself.

[MaxQue]

Thanks, Krago. Not my colour key though - and I don't have permission to use your maps on my blog.

Anyways, I just realized that in Toronto Centre, both councillors are NDPers. Even the north ward, which covers Rosedale. (Albeit, the 2010 race in that ward was an open seat, and the councillor who won only received 29%).

(and my colours are better!)

Maybe if you had a 5 point scale and the PQ wasn't purple.

I'll finish my map, since it's halfway done.