French legislative by-elections (14th Legislature)

[MaxQue]

Julien Balkany is running. He wasn't all that strong in June, but maybe he can spoil it for Fredo.

Is that really better? Considering his brother, I'm not sure.

[MaxQue]

Big rumours that Louis Giscard d'Estaing (UDI, ex-UMP) is going to announce his candidacy in North America.

It's good, or not? (Sure, it's better than Lefebvre, but, I can't say I know much about Louis Giscard d'Estaing except his father).

[MaxQue]

Oise 2nd

Turnout below 27%

It appears as it will be a UMP - FN run off

Dear Lord...

And UMP won 51.6-48.4, by only 786 votes.

[MaxQue]

The scale is a bit surprising, but, the fact than FN progressed much isn't.

The Republican Front is dead, since the 2012 Legislatives and today proved it again.
And, honestly, for some left-wingers, the economical/Europe project is more attracting than the UMP one.

And on immigration, now, Mancel (and a whole segment of UMP) and FN, that's almost the same thing.

We can just hope it follows an UKIP-like path instead of a BNP-like path, for the sake of French minorities.

[MaxQue]

You think than Giscard can beat Lefebvre?

[MaxQue]

LH2 poll in Lot-et-Garonne's 3rd

Jean Louis Costes (UMP) 30%
Bernard Barral (PS) 23%
Étienne Bousquet-Cassagne (FN) 21%
Lionel Feuillas (EELV) 5%

Jean Louis Costes (UMP) 27%
Étienne Bousquet-Cassagne (FN) 22%
Bernard Barral (PS) 19%
Swiss Bank Accounts 11%
Lionel Feuillas (EELV) 4%

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2013/05/17/1628504-sondages-legislative-partielle-villeneuve-lot-jerome-cahuzac-donne-perdant.html

11%!!!!! I'm shocked!

Considering than people like Balkany got reelected despite being condemned for corruption, is that really surprising (Carignon, etc...)

[MaxQue]

lol Likud: the ruling part in Israel - it's fairly easy to see what he's implying.

Netanhayu campaigned for that candidate.

[MaxQue]

Do you think the UMP candidate will withdraw in favor of the Fascist?

You need being in the top two or having at least 12.5% of all registered voters to be qualified for the 2nd round, so the UMP candidate isn't qualified at all. It will by FN vs. PS.

And, no, UMP won't support FN, I think. Either PS or no one. They said they need 48 hours to think (it will be obviously decided at the national level, by Sarkozy and co.)