Quebec Municipal Elections 2013

[MaxQue]

The deadline for filling a candidature form for tomorrow vote passed.
There is only two candidates:

Richard Deschamps (UM), winner of the internal vote, responsible of economy on the Executive Coucil, city councillor for Sault-Saint-Louis (LaSalle borough)

Michael Applebaum (ind), loser of the UM internal vote, former president of the Executive Council, borough mayor of Côte-des-Neiges--Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, left UM on Wednesday.

VM and PM are running no one. I suppose they will abstain or vote for Applebaum.

[MaxQue]

Wait, what's happening?

Union Montreal did a vote among city and borough councillors member of the party to choose the next mayor, as they had the majority. It was Deschamps vs. Applebaum (and Helen Fotopulos, former borough mayor of the Plateau and current city councillor for Côte-des-Neiges). Deschamps won. Some pro-Deschamps people anonymously complained in medias than Applebaum French was awful, to taint him.

Applebaum got angry and said than the UM executive was hiding reports about overfacturation of public works since 2005 and complaned against the 3.3% tax hike. He also resigned the presidence of the Executive Council. One of the UM leaders blasted him publically for critizing the party in public.

Some councillors didn't liked and left. Finally, Applebaum and his allies left the party and decided to sit as independants. UM lost its majority, in the process. He also said than he will run for mayor, until 2013. He promised to stay independant, to not run in 2013 and to make a coalition executive with UM, VM, PM and indies. He met with the various parties leaders.

Finally, seeing than Applebaum would win, Deschamps promised the same things (except about 2013). He also promised asking to Québec to appoiint a special verificator, as they did in Laval.

The municipal council is electing the new mayor, tomorrow, at 10AM.

[MaxQue]

So Montreal has an Anglo/Jewish mayor who has some difficulties speaking French. lol

His French isn't so bad. It was reported as worse than it is by Deschamps supporters.
A bit like Ruth Ellen Brosseau. His French was bad, but not as bad the Bloc supporters were trying to make us believe.

[MaxQue]

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/regional/montreal/201211/22/01-4596604-comite-executif-la-coalition-voit-le-jour.php

Applebaum named its executive council, the equivalent of a Cabinet.
3 independants, 3 Union, 3 Vision, 2 Projet.
The important offices were given to independants and to Vision.

That didn't stop Union bleeding, Jocelyn Ann Campbell, the city councillor for Saint-Sulpice (inland Ahuntsic) became an independant. Ahuntsic-Cartierville borough is known for its close races, a couple of them finished by less than 100 votes, including a borough mayor where the 3rd place candidate had 32% of votes (35PM-33UM-32VM), and a city council elected which finished 34PM-33UM-33VM (in Ahuntsic ward, 137 votes between 1st and last).

Jocelyn Ann Campbell herself won by 39 votes over Vision.

At other levels, it also includes the federal seat of Ahuntsic which was a 3-way race and the provincial seat of Crémazie, which is the only true marginal seat on Montreal Island.

[MaxQue]

A demand was filled to register the municipal party "Équipe Denis Coderre pour Montréal" (Team Denis Coderre for Montreal).

[MaxQue]

So this is interesting...

http://www.cjad.com/CJADLocalNews/entry.aspx?BlogEntryID=10542157

Union Montreal looks to be falling apart... So that will make what, 30+ independents? that will make governing complicated no? no word if a new party(ies) will be created by this implosion

Well, only 15 of the 39 persons elected for the party last time are still there, if my memory is good.

[MaxQue]

A first poll for Montreal.

Coderre: 39
Bergeron (Projet): 23
Côté (Coalition Montréal, rebranded Vision): 17
Mélanie Joly (some young lady with a party named "True Change for Montreal"): 16

Obviously, Mélanie Joly (not even invited to debates) is the surprise of that poll.

[MaxQue]

No, it's not a "conservative" newspaper. Their polling is done by Léger, which is probably the best Quebec polling company and they are usually neutral (with a very slight nationalist lean and a very slight rightwing bias, which may be hard to spot or invisible, at times).

Despite belonging to the same group than the Suns, it's way different (the founder, the father of the former boss, was a left-wing independantist, so...).

[MaxQue]

Joly must be some Anglo lover or Tory or something.

No, a French Liberal, supported by many NDPers. She was on Trudeau leadership campaign and studied in Oxford. She is working in a big PR firm called Cohn & Wolfe.

EDIT: Lives in NDG, she is the typical "latte liberal",

[MaxQue]

I stand corrected, I saw the "Suns" relationship and just figured the paper was a right-wing rag.

Joly (I have a NPD/UCQ friend who looks to be supporting her) should be perfect to siphon votes away from Coderre in the west island and some central areas... but also attracts similar voters who Bergeron is going after. If those two eat each others voters, that could be enough for Coderre to win.
Cote's voters (who by now should just bold lol) are more likely to go Bergeron (who is second in Est, Nord and Sud-Ouest ) then Coderre or Joly no?

Wow, NDP/UCQ/Joly is really a popular combinaison.
For Côté, I'm not so sure. Bergeron has an awful personality and he has alienated many people (anti-car policies at the Plateau, his far-left image, his strange declarations of the past, a scandal at Pleteau borough (council financing a association which was controled by Projet...) (he is a truther, too). Joly, being unknown, as alienated no one yet. And Coderre, he has so much name recognition than anybody likely to support is most likely already supporting him.

Then, again, being a municipal campaign, voters are swingy and not faithful. In 2007, Labeaume got 1% in the first poll and won in a landslide.

If anything, Coderre can only go down, Bergeron, as 2nd, might get useful votes to beat Coderre, Côté can improve if he begins to have more personality than a wall and Joly can only gain from more exposure.

Also, I doubt than any party will have a majority, given than none is running a full slate and local parties bloomed in a few boroughs.

[MaxQue]

Joly must be some Anglo lover or Tory or something.

No, a French Liberal, supported by many NDPers. She was on Trudeau leadership campaign and studied in Oxford. She is working in a big PR firm called Cohn & Wolfe.

EDIT: Lives in NDG, she is the typical "latte liberal",

I was under the impression that virtually 100% of NDPers in montreal were backing Projet Montreal. why would anyone from the NDP support Joly?

Because Bergeron is VERY controversial and authocratic. Most NDPers I know like Projet Montréal, but many don't like Bergeron at all.

[MaxQue]

I gather a lot of NDP supporters will be voting with a split ticket.

Well, most Joly voters will split their ticket, as she has not candidates everywhere. Anyways, it's easy to split votes, depending from wher you live you have 2 (Ville-Marie, the mayor and a city councillor) to 6 votes (Lachine, the mayor, the borough mayor, 2 city councillors and 2 borough councillors (the wards in Lachine are two-seaters)).

[MaxQue]

That is unless PM is a bit of a cult of personality. Is the party nothing without him?

I have a few friends who are working on PM campaigns, The party is very policy right, maybe at the beginning it might have been more Bergeron-centric but at this point the party seems to have grown into something bigger then a personality cult. They run Le Plateau were Bergeron is a city councillor not mayor. Since 2009 the party has developed its own reputation.
BUT i could be wrong, a montrealer might have a different perspective. For a comparison, i do not see this like Jack and the NPD were in 2011 were they were one and the same.

The complicated Montreal system allow a city mayorship candidate to run for city councillor at the same time (by being the runningmate of another candidate), but not borough mayor.

EDIT: And Municipal politics in Quebec are personalist, whether the parties are or not.

[MaxQue]

So, if Bergeron were to hypothetically get elected as mayor, his running mate would win his council seat?

Yes. Janine Krieber, wife of Stéphane Dion. That Stéphane Dion. (in the Saint-Jacques ward, Ville-Marie borough).

[MaxQue]

So, if Bergeron were to hypothetically get elected as mayor, his running mate would win his council seat?

Yes. Janine Krieber, wife of Stéphane Dion. That Stéphane Dion. (in the Saint-Jacques ward, Ville-Marie borough).

u wot m8

I think it was clear. She is Bergeron's runningmate. It illustrates well my point about cleavages being personal, not ideological in municipal politics.

[MaxQue]

So, if Bergeron were to hypothetically get elected as mayor, his running mate would win his council seat?

Yes. Janine Krieber, wife of Stéphane Dion. That Stéphane Dion. (in the Saint-Jacques ward, Ville-Marie borough).

u wot m8

I think it was clear. She is Bergeron's runningmate. It illustrates well my point about cleavages being personal, not ideological in municipal politics.

I know, I was just surprised. Is there some sort of Dion-Coderre feud I'm not aware of?

She is involved in Projet since 2 years and was vice-president of the political board of the party. It's not related to Coderre, given the timing.

In the same borough, the candidate in Peter-McGill is a NDPer (and president of the Park Avenue shopowner association), so...

[MaxQue]

his far-left image, his strange declarations of the past

Mostly to do with his truther stance...or?

More his anti-car campaigning before he was in politics. He also denied than tobacco cause cancer, in the past (through I think he relented on that).

[MaxQue]

Nothing wrong with anti-car campaigning

Not all electors agree, through.

[MaxQue]

Nothing wrong with anti-car campaigning

Not all electors agree, through.

True. It's quite poisonous actually. One of the reasons Ford won in Toronto, on a pro-cars anti-bikes/public transit campaign.

The problem is is ISN'T an anti-car campaign, it's very much a pro-public transit (in PMs case, LRT) pro-bike/pedestrian move. In TO there was never a move to kill off lanes of car traffic and i doubt there is in MTL. BUT conservatives will say it's an attack on cars, individuality and lie to no end about public transit (again, see TO and Ford lying about LRT, comparing it to St. Clair).

Well, before being in politics, he was literally anti-car, through.

[MaxQue]

Côté admitted to being behind anti-PM and Bergeron robocalling.

I'm pretty sure than Côté will finish 3rd or 4th, at this point.

[MaxQue]

Côté admitted to being behind anti-PM and Bergeron robocalling.

I'm pretty sure than Côté will finish 3rd or 4th, at this point.

And, as it's not enough, he is suspected of soliciting municipal public servants for donations to his campaign. Is he a Coderre plant trying to destroy Harel and Vision Montréal?

[MaxQue]

http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/Elections-Montreal-2013/2013/10/15/004-sondage-crop-elections-municipales-montreal.shtml

Another Montreal poll:

Coderre 41
Joly 24
Bergeron 21
Côté 11

[MaxQue]

Great blogpost from Michel Auger on the Montreal mayoral race. Council could be quite the clusterfark.

I alread said it earlier. There is too many local teams and incomplete slates to have a majority. I doubt than the winning party will have 50% of seats.

[MaxQue]

Two independant candidates joined the Joly team, one of them being an incumbent (Sainte-Marie in Ville-Marie borough) which left Projet Montréal.

[MaxQue]

Gobé left Liberals before 2033 to seat as an independant and was an ADQ member for a while.