Can we put the kibosh on the Bradley effect?

[Kalimantan]

My take on it is this:

The Bradley effect should only be noticeable amongst democrats wanting to vote for the republican in a general election (if the black candidate is a democrat). There's no logic in republicans or independents being affected by the Bradley effect, or for it to appear in a primary.

The strength of the Bradley effect will thus depend on the nature of the election, with the popularity and party of any incumbent also important. If its a personality election, party-ID will be less important to how people vote and the Bradley effect could be big. If the election is a straight generic repub v generic dem fight, then the Bradley effect will most likely be small. This general seems to be shaping up to be the latter.

Importantly, the Bradley Effect is not an indication of racism per se. My their nature, any racist won't feel embarassed about choosing the white guy. Bradley effect will appear in people who are worried about being perceived as racist.