The “Who is running in 2024?” tea leaves thread

[AltWorlder]

There is a LOT of Twitter chatter/rumors that pence’s iowa campaign will be run by legendary iowa radio host/evangelical Bartleby Van Ookerstok

Would be a big hire for western Dutch areas of the state

Atlas is just gaslighting me now with made-up people

[AltWorlder]

No idea who Trump would pick but remember sabe in 2016 no one had any idea it would be Pence, who is the boringest man alive in comparison.

[AltWorlder]

lol is anyone suggesting Booker because that guy completely dropped off after 2019

[AltWorlder]

Would Kasich be a good candidate for No Labels or is he not centrist enough for that

[AltWorlder]

I think it’s fair to call Kasich a standard pre-Trump non-Tea Party Republican with rhetorical and tonal differences only. He’s no Jon Huntsman:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/john-kasich-a-jeb-bush-in-jon-huntsman-clothing/

https://web.archive.org/web/20151213175157/http://plunderbund.com/2015/07/28/john-kasich-is-not-the-jon-huntsman-of-2016/

Though these days, it’s also fair to say that policy distinctions don’t matter, because isn’t Liz Cheney of all people the principled NeverTrumper Republican icon with Democrat admirers? Come to think of it couldn’t she headline No Labels?

[AltWorlder]

They're only equivalent if you choose to ignore actual policy, which is fair because everyone is, these days.

[AltWorlder]

To be fair, I think Huntsman is more moderate on policy, but is less ardently anti-Trump than Kasich.

My impression is that Huntsman is either an opportunist who is able to play ball with whomever is in power (he has served as ambassador not only for Trump but also for Obama), or he very much embodies the stereotypical LDS value of polite dutifulness to the authorities (e.g. like Johnny Utah the square FBI agent). Probably the answer is a mixture of both.

I think, to be charitable, he is not simply an opportunist, because if he was then he wouldn't be an uncompromising moderate and completely un-nominatable by GOP standards.

[AltWorlder]

https://twitter.com/alexthomp/status/1692898853433831572

The Newsom option for the GOP!

[AltWorlder]

Kemp would sink quicker than DeSantis against Trump. Youngkin would at least be able to put up a credible fight and position himself for 2028.

wonder why no consideration for Abbott

[AltWorlder]

Either Kemp or Youngkin would be fairly strong candidates; however, anyone with a brain would advise them to wait until 2028.

I’ve got good news about GOP donors

[AltWorlder]

isn’t Liz Cheney of all people the principled NeverTrumper Republican icon with Democrat admirers? Come to think of it couldn’t she headline No Labels?

Well, why couldn't she? I think she would be a very fun "makes vague motions towards running" but not actually running independent candidate with limited appeal. It would be hilarious if both Biden had Dean Philips types running against him, and Trump had Liz Cheney (and/or the Kemp/Youngkin lane). And then No Labels also runs Manchin/Hogan or whomever.

[AltWorlder]

https://twitter.com/alexthomp/status/1692898853433831572

The Newsom option for the GOP!

So turns out the freaking Bohemian Grove has been plotting as well.

At The Bohemian Grove, the secretive conclave of men who gather in Northern California, the attendance was a Who’s Who of pre-Trump Republicans, a murderer’s row of bundlers and Wall Street Journal editorial page favorites including former House Speaker Paul Ryan and ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, as my colleague Ryan Lizza reported. With fear setting in about Trump’s re-nomination, the gathering became something of a fantasy camp on how to avert that prospect or at least confront it. One name that came up as a potential apolitical independent nominee was retired Admiral William McRaven, the former special operations commander who became chancellor of the University of Texas.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/28/2024-presidential-contest-candidates-biden-trump-00108685

This will go as far as Mattis 2016, but it's fun to gossip about.

Also from the same article

Over in the Rockies a few days later was the annual Aspen retreat for donors to the Republican Governors Association. There was similar how-do-we-stop-him chatter there, I’m told, along with much fretting about Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ ailing candidacy. Two contenders showed up to work the donors and governors, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former Vice President Mike Pence, but a candidate-in-waiting also received ample attention. Contributors buttonholed Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, an attendee told me, with some asking if he’d run and others skipping pleasantries and pushing him to get in the race.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who thinks Trump is “almost certainly” going to be the GOP standard-bearer, said because of his wealth and potential appeal Youngkin “is an overnight serious national candidate” and likened his potential path to that of Wendell Willkie, the businessman who emerged late to claim the 1940 Republican nomination

If Youngkin runs it won’t be until after Virginia’s legislative elections in November.

And by that point, it may be as much a referendum on DeSantis’ weakness as Trump’s strength.

[AltWorlder]

Was Mad Dog Mattis floated as a candidate in 2016? I don't recall that.

At the journo-donor level, yeah

https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-man-can-save-us-from-trumpand-clinton

https://www.vox.com/2016/4/22/11479700/draft-mattis

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/04/29/james-mattis-white-knight-campaign-for-third-party-conservative-ends-before-it-begins/

[AltWorlder]

So how many "establishment coup/moderate insurgency" potential candidacies are there?

Democratic:

- Dean Philips making noises but not actually running

- Perpetual rumors of party insiders subbing in Gavin Newsom

Republican:

- Asa Hutchinson, Doug Burgum, Will Hurd, etc., outsider moderate campaigns

- Donors talking about Youngkin or Kemp

Other:

- No Labels

- Admiral McRaven namedrop out of nowhere

Any others I'm missing?

[AltWorlder]

lol Kemp would be smoked if he tried to run as his state government prosecutes Trump

https://Twitter.com/bluestein/status/1697262079164764356
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1697266852978688164

[AltWorlder]

I really don't understand who these hypothetical pro-Youngkin voters are. If they want an alternative to Trump, there are a dozen of them right there. Sure, they might not like DeSantis or Haley or Hutchinson, but if they truly are looking for an alternative, it seems like they could hold their nose and vote for someone they don't especially like.

It's because he's a winner. Ettingermentum puts him in B tier here: https://www.ettingermentum.news/p/the-official-republican-party-presidential

Youngkin, a 56-year old former CEO of the Carlyle Group (yes, the same one from Fahrenheit 9/11), has only run in one election of his life, but that race needs no introduction. Almost exactly one year after Biden won the commonwealth of Virginia by 10%, Youngkin defeated former Governor Terry McAuliffe by two points in the state’s extremely high-profile gubernatorial contest in 2021. This win immediately rocketed Youngkin into the national spotlight, not just because he won in a blue state (although that was impressive enough by itself) but in the way in which he won. While the standard Republican playbook in blue states has always been to compromise on social issues, Youngkin managed to win while centering his campaign around a set of right-wing culture war attacks. It was a massively invigorating result for a Republican Party that had been struggling mightily in places exactly like Virginia for years, and led them to place his strategy at the core of their efforts in the 2022 midterms.

A year and a half later, however, Youngkin still stands alone as the sole Republican to win anything close to a competitive race off of the platform he pioneered. Attempts to take his hysterical campaign style nationally would fail so disastrously that some have already begun dismissing his 2021 win as a fluke. While I wouldn’t go that far—no Republican can win in a state like Virginia simply off of luck alone—it’s also undeniable that Youngkin benefited tremendously from factors outside of his control. The most important of these was timing. His election occurring in November 2021 meant that he was able to benefit from one event that massively helped Republicans—the fall of Kabul and the collapse of Biden’s approval ratings—while avoiding the impact of the Dobbs ruling, which massively harmed Republicans. If his race occurred before the former event, he almost certainly loses. If it occurred after the latter one, he likely loses as well.

And you don’t even have to look into hypotheticals to see that Youngkin’s ability to overperform Trump in November 2021 wasn’t a unique one. Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate for Governor in New Jersey, whose election was on the same day as Youngkin, actually had a larger overperformance in his race than Youngkin did in his, despite running against a popular incumbent. Because of just how favorable this environment was, Youngkin was never forced to face the sort of hard questions on issues like Trump and abortion that will make or break his viability on the national stage. While the national political media is very far from perfect, I find it doubtful that they will let him slide on as nearly as many issues as local Virginia media did during his race in 2021.

He also rates Tim Scott and Brian Kemp as B Tier as well. There are no credible Republican Presidential contenders in A tier or S tier.

[AltWorlder]

Mitt Romney, former presidential candidate and governor, won’t seek Senate reelection in 2024

[AltWorlder]

Is she running?

https://twitter.com/ninaturner/status/1707110008981213237

[AltWorlder]

He can join Marianne Williamson in the former Democratic primary candidate to presidential candidate club.

I'm guessing that given how underwhelming her primary campaign has been, partly due to the crowded anti-Biden fringe, she's probably not going to run as an independent after she suspends it.

It's quite funny. On the more radical, fringier end we have Cornel West and quite possibly RFK Jr. On the more conventional, mainstream-establishmetnarian end we might have Dean Philips as the centrist side, we might have No Labels as well, and finally we might have Cenk Uygur as the somewhat more progressive but still pro-Ukraine. And that's only the left to center candidates!

[AltWorlder]

Not intentionally, but this feels like a great stalking horse for some foreign-born demagogue like Elon Musk to run in the future. Or even for Trump to try to run even if constitutional issues crop up as he gets prosecuted.

I wonder with all of the flagrant rules-breaking that's been going on in the democratic process (even before 2020, 2016, etc.) over the last twenty plus years, people who are constitutionally ineligible will just start running for office. Sure they might not garner "real" votes, but they could possibly suck up attention, energy, distracting from real candidates. Maybe waste a lot of write-in votes?

That said, I can't actually think of such a character who could exploit that. Musk has the money but currently is incredibly hated and would do worse than Bloomberg 2020.

[AltWorlder]

No, tea leaves and wild speculation is fun. Fly away, troll

[AltWorlder]

Second-stringer solidarity, let this be a historical artifact for the time we thought Dean Phillips would run (I doubt he actually will)

https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1713247881346638306

[AltWorlder]

Cenk’s whole candidacy feels like a very early-internet prank/social experiment:

Have to give him credit for actually giving it a shot, it's more commitment to the bit/grift than complete scammers like Ami Horowitz back in 2020

https://twitter.com/AmiHorowitz/status/1126167011183042560

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/442786-right-wing-documentary-filmmaker-ami-horowitz-enters-dem-race-solicits/

[AltWorlder]

With Stein entering, I think this might be the largest amount of relatively popular candidates the US has ever had for a Presidential election, if it holds:

Too bad Joe Exotic is in jail and Kanye West was too mentally ill to do much of a run

The Libertarians seem to be too afflicted with in-fighting to nominate another Gary Johnson type. Especially since Justin Amash ruled out running.

Also while it's good for the PSL that they got some new blood, I don't see how Claudia De La Cruz is more relatively popular than any other activist member of that party.

[AltWorlder]

No Labels might as well give their ballot access to RFK Jr., who has basically done a Tulsi Gabbard style "ultra-reactionary Democrat" swing dance anyway.