LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190785476581572608
https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190800755596222465

The example he points to for high turnout, Vermillion, only gave JBE 22% in the primary. If thats the trend he chooses to point out, JBE should be concerned.

I still find it to be a shame how Edwards is in the fight of his political life, when in a less polarized environment, he would be sailing to reelection. He has none of the privileges afforded to Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, and Phil Scott. Republican voters in Louisiana, it is clear at this point, make no distinction between him and the national Democratic Party. His support for the fetal heartbeat bill earlier this year may not save him from defeat, which makes it all a fruitless effort.

If none of the voters made a distinction, this race wouldn't be close.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Just to highlight what was mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193908835569819658

Why would GOP voters vote early in the primary but not in the run-off?   Or the reverse for the Democrats?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Just to highlight what was mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193908835569819658

Why would GOP voters vote early in the primary but not in the run-off?   Or the reverse for the Democrats?

The historical trend here I imagine is rooted in the fact that EV in LA generally lags the country in terms of adoption: only 28% of voters cast an early ballot in the 2019 primary (a majority of the country voted early in both 2016 & 2018 as I recall). I'm not even sure if AIP voting has been available for more than a few years.

LA's unique system also de facto means that we're talking about a primary versus a general election here (as opposed to one distinct primary and one distinct GE in most other states, or in the case of a state like GA, a primary, a general election and a general election runoff).

Since the election occurs on a Saturday, fewer younger and/or non-whites are obligated to vote early. Likewise, the EV has historically been disproportionately ABM, which likewise has tended to skew older and whiter pretty much everywhere (LA or otherwise).

There's presumably less pushing of likely Democrats to vote in the primary due to a greater share being low-propensity; if you can only get them to turn out once, then obviously you want that to happen in a runoff/LA-style general election (though admittedly 2019 may not have been such a situation, since JBE hitting 50 was a goal/possibility in October).

At any rate, I'm deferring to JMC's understanding of how these skewings work simply because I haven't kept track of how much more D/R the vote gets on ED in LA with each cycle. But generally and as of late, a huge surge in Democratic EV means a better performance for the GOP on ED via cannibalization and/or much higher turnout than expected.

Doesn't this go against the idea that the early vote is more Democratic in the run-off than in the primary?   I can understand why the primary would have greater a greater proportion of its  turnout be GOP than the run-off due to greater DEM participation in the latter, but I don't see why that would be true of the early vote more than for the election day vote.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

You can't hide the fact that you are running an ad like this from a different demographic or a different part of the state, it's not the 1840s.   This kind of stuff absolutely does make Republican-leaners have second thoughts before crossing party lines.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

You can't hide the fact that you are running an ad like this from a different demographic or a different part of the state, it's not the 1840s.   This kind of stuff absolutely does make Republican-leaners have second thoughts before crossing party lines.

Maybe if they heard it. My whole point is this ad is specifically tailored as a radio ad (and a less prominent one at that it appears) for NOLA, not Northern Lousiana. It seems fairly unlikely it spreads that far, especially a day before the election.

What makes you think everyone in the NOLA region is a solid Democrat and that no one in the state reads the newspaper or watches the local news?