New Mexico

[TheGlobalizer]

Lean D.  But certainly winnable if a good GOP candidate emerges.

Especially if there's a Hispanic candidate on the ticket.

[TheGlobalizer]

I'm going to say New Mexico could become a Democratic stronghold similar to Illinois or California, especially if the GOP keeps pushing the Tea Party and its views on imigration.

Agree on the effect of the immigration issue, but LOL on the idea of NM becoming a Democratic stronghold.

[TheGlobalizer]

Have you been to a majority-Hispanic community in New Mexico?

Agree with what King said, but want to add:

This is pretty funny to ask -- just take a look at the demographics in NM.  I didn't until I moved out here 6 months ago -- the state is basically 45/45/10 white/Hispanic/Am. Indian.  There are places in NM that are 100% Hispanic and have ALWAYS BEEN.  There are few areas that have large white majorities, mostly the rural south and Santa Fe.  I live in a majority Hispanic CDP (North Valley): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Valley,_New_Mexico  Note the white/Hispanic self-ID totals add to ~130% of the population.  You can't go hardly anywhere in NM without passing through a majority-Hispanic community.

[TheGlobalizer]

It's those same native born hispanics that are so up in arms about Arizona's immigration policies.

Because it has heavy profiling aspects that effect non-Mexican citizens.  New Mexico will vote for a candidate who supports large walls, barbed wire, citizenship to attend public schools, and deportation of all illegals.  They won't vote for one who advocates officers asking for citizenship status on "suspicion" like Arizona.

All I'm saying is that if the GOP hard liners have their way with more legislation not neccessarily identical but similar to Arizona's, even if it's just espoused, it will cause this state to tip drastically. I don't think New Mexico is there yet, but given 4 of the last 5 elections and the state's demographics it leans Democrat and has 4 of its 5 members of Congress from that party. In a California and Illinois both went Republican every presidential year from 1968-1988 but haven't gone that way since and are now a lost cause. I think New Mexico could be heading the same direction.

NM's delegation is blue because the GOP here overreaches with bad candidates and the Dems don't.  Local issues/connections can flip either Senate seat or NM-1.

I don't think the state GOP delegation has enough pull to pursue Arizona-style policies, the state houses are much bluer than the state is on a national level.  Hell, they couldn't even get a bill passed blocking driver's licenses to undocumented aliens, much less a racial profiling bill that would profile almost everyone in the goddamn state.

Ironically, the main reason NM wouldn't become a Dem paradise is because it is already so thoroughly Hispanic.  Identity politics fall flat.